What might a 'Godzilla' El Niño mean for the UK?

El Niño conditions form when warmer waters spread across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, resulting in global changes to weather and climate.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said that there is an 80% chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August 2026.

El Niño can disrupt agriculture, energy supply, trade, water resources, supply chains and livelihoods.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is part of a naturally occurring climate pattern which disrupts normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

The full name of this climate pattern is the ‘El Niño–Southern Oscillation’ (ENSO); ‘southern oscillation’ refers to atmospheric pressure changes between the east and west tropical Pacific. The ENSO has two opposing parts:

• El Niño, whose conditions are characterised by warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
• La Niña, whose conditions are characterised by cooler ocean surface temperatures

During normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. As this warm water moves, upwelling of cold water from the deep ocean replaces it. The ENSO disrupts both trade winds and upwelling:

• In El Niño conditions, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed eastwards towards the Americas. This warm water causes the jet stream to move south of its normal position, influencing weather conditions across the world. El Niño reduces upwelling, which results in fewer nutrients being brought up from the deep ocean and therefore a decline in phytoplankton in the Pacific, which reduces sources of food for some species of fish.
• In La Niña conditions, trade winds strengthen and warm water is pushed further west towards Asia. This causes the jet stream to move north of its normal position. La Niña increases upwelling.

An El Niño event generally occurs every two to seven years, and lasts for around 9 to 12 months. El Niño is more frequent than La Niña.

Different meteorological organisations use different thresholds to classify an El Niño event. In the UK, the Met Office declares an El Niño event when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise.

How does El Niño affect weather and climate?

El Niño directly increases the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, which in turn transmits heat into the atmosphere, increasing global average temperatures. Most El Niño events increase global average temperatures by around 0.2°C. The warming caused by an El Niño event in 2026 is likely to be greater than the warming caused by previous El Niño events because it will sit on top of the longer-term warming trend caused by anthropogenic climate change.

El Niño also drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns. Areas close to the Pacific may experience much wetter conditions than normal, while more eastern areas, such as Australia, Indonesia and parts of South East Asia, may become drier and more prone to droughts. It may also disrupt the Indian Ocean monsoon, with tropical storm formation more likely across the Pacific and hurricane formation less likely across the Atlantic. The WMO’s global seasonal climate update says that almost all regions are likely to experience above-normal temperatures, with an increase in drought in some areas and an increase in extreme rainfall in others.

The effects of El Niño on global temperature and rainfall are generally most pronounced in the second year after an El Niño develops.

What do we know about the formation of El Niño in 2026?

The WMO has said that there is an 80% chance that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August 2026. The WMO projects that El Niño conditions will strengthen over the rest of 2026 and says that there is a 90% chance that El Niño will occur before the end of the year.

, with observed temperatures approaching El Niño thresholds. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said that El Niño conditions now exist in the Pacific.

While most meteorologists agree that an El Niño event is highly likely, they are still unsure whether winds and other weather conditions will increase or reduce ocean temperatures. If ocean temperatures were reduced, it would weaken the strength of an El Niño event.

The effects of a 2026 El Niño event would likely be felt globally after the conditions first emerge.

Will it be a ‘super’ El Niño?

Several forecasts from national weather agencies indicate that the next El Niño could be one of the strongest on record. Some forecasters have said that it could be a ‘super El Niño’ (or even a “Godzilla” Niño); that is, a situation where ocean temperatures rise over 2°C above the long-term average. The Met Office does not use the term ‘super El Niño’, but it has said that the current conditions suggest the next El Niño will be a significant event. It says it could be comparable to the 1998 El Niño, which resulted in record heat and extreme weather, from storms, heatwaves, floods, frosts and droughts. However, even if the next El Niño is not as strong as projected, it could still lead to record temperatures, as any additional warming will sit on top of a longer-term upward warming trend.

What might El Niño mean for the UK?

The European weather system is geographically far away from El Niño, and although there are sometimes links between El Niño conditions and European weather patterns, these can be hard to predict. The meteorological effects of El Niño on Europe often lag behind the actual event, and could result in weather in 2027.

Past El Niño events have increased global temperatures and caused more extreme weather and rainfall. Increased flooding, storms, wildfires and droughts across the world could lead to crop losses and supply chain disruption, which could affect the UK. The government has recognised the risks that El Niño creates for food security and severe weather.