Bosnia and Herzegovina: secessionism in the Republika Srpska

In recent years, the Bosnian Serbs in the Republika Srpska (RS), one of the two principal territorial and political entities within Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), have adopted a more assertive separatist stance under the leadership of Milorad Dodik. Actions by Dodik and the RS leadership were viewed as undermining the 1995 Dayton Agreement, the peace agreement signed following the ethnic conflict in BiH.

The Dayton Agreement established an international High Representative with responsibility for oversight of civilian implementation of the peace settlement. The High Representative has powers to remove public officials from office and impose laws on BiH as necessary to safeguard the peace agreement.

Separatism in Republika Srpska

Milorad Dodik was President of RS from 2010 to 2018 and again from 2022 to 2025. He was a member of the three-person collective presidency of BiH from 2018 to 2022.

Dodik has railed against various decisions taken by the High Representative for BiH. In July 2021, the Bosnian Serbs launched a boycott of key institutions of the state of BiH after the High Representative announced a law banning genocide denial related to the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. In October 2021, Dodik said that RS would withdraw from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s armed forces, and key judicial and taxation bodies.

Secessionist rhetoric from Dodik, sometimes combined with calls to unify RS with Serbia, intensified following his return to the RS Presidency in November 2022. In June 2023, the RS National Assembly adopted legislation suspending rulings by the BiH constitutional court and stopping publication of High Representative decisions in the official gazette (meaning they would not have effect in RS). This legislation was overturned by the High Representative, but in early July Dodik signed the legislation into law. Following these developments, BiH state prosecutors indicted Dodik on charges of failing to execute the decisions of the High Representative.

In May 2024, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution to declare 11 July the “International Day of Reflection and Remembrance of the 1995 Srebrenica Genocide”. Both Serbia and RS had protested the resolution, with Dodik saying BiH may not survive its adoption. On the day of the UN vote, the RS government held a session in Srebrenica and announced a draft agreement on “peaceful disassociation” from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In June 2024, an all-Serb assembly was held in Belgrade with Dodik and Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić in attendance. It adopted a “Declaration On The Protection Of National And Political Rights And The Common Future Of The Serbian People” which was later adopted by the national assemblies of both RS and Serbia.

Dodik convicted and leaves office

At the end of February 2025, the BiH court found Dodik guilty of failing to implement decisions of the High Representative. He was sentenced to a year in prison (later commuted to a fine) and banned from holding the post of president of RS for six years. The next day, the RS National Assembly adopted legislation to ban the BiH state judicial authorities and the state investigation and police agency from exercising jurisdiction in RS.

On 12 March 2025, BiH state prosecutors ordered the arrest of Dodik for ignoring a court summons. Dodik said the warrant was “null and void”. The next day the RS National Assembly adopted a new draft constitution for RS.

On 27 March 2025, the BiH state court asked Interpol to issue an international arrest warrant on Dodik after he left the country. This request was refused by Interpol.

The BiH Central Electoral Commission ordered Dodik’s removal from office on 6 August 2025 after an appeal against his decision was rejected. Dodik said he would not accept the verdict and would not surrender. The court later accepted Dodik’s request to exchange his one-year prison sentence for a fine. On 22 August 2025, the RS National Assembly voted to call a referendum asking the people of RS if they accepted the state court’s verdict.

On 29 September 2025, the stand-off ended when Dodik said he was stepping down as president. An ally of Dodik, Ana Trišić-Babić, was appointed as interim president by the RS National Assembly pending a presidential election in November (see below). The National Assembly also annulled several of the separatist laws contrary to the BiH constitution that were passed in previous years.

The US State Department said the move by Dodik was a result of US-led efforts “to defuse the crisis” in BiH. The US subsequently lifted sanctions previously imposed on Dodik and his family members.

The presidential election on 23 November 2025 was won by an ally of Dodik, Siniša Karan. Some commentaries have suggested that Dodik will continue to direct developments behind the scenes following the election. Karan pledged to continue Dodik’s policies “with ever greater force”.

Karan’s initial presidential term will last for less than year, with another presidential election in RS scheduled for October 2026 as part of the general elections across BiH.

Relations with Russia and Serbia

Both Russia and China objected to the appointment of the current High Representative, Christian Schmidt, in 2021 and proposed ending the role. Russia has also withdrawn from the Steering Group of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) which provides the High Representative with political guidance. Dodik has visited Russia and met with Russia’s President Putin on several occasions. Dodik sought to block attempts by BiH to align with EU sanctions against Russia following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and RS and Russia have continued to discuss economic cooperation initiatives. On 8 January 2023, Dodik awarded President Putin the RS highest medal of honour for his “patriotic concern and love” for RS.

The Russian government supported Dodik following his sentencing by the BiH court in February 2025, calling the case against him absurd and fabricated and “a strike on stability in the Balkan region”. The Russian government welcomed the election of Siniša Karan as Dodik’s successor in November 2025, while referring to the “illegal termination” of Dodik’s mandate.

Serbia’s President Vučić has been supportive of some of the more symbolic actions of Dodik and the RS leadership and has criticised sanctions and judicial processes against Dodik, while declaring support for the integrity of the BiH state and avoiding endorsing Bosnian Serb moves to separatism. Vučić and Dodik have been described as having had an “historically uneasy” relationship which has improved in recent years. Following the sentencing of Dodik at the end of February 2025, Vučić flew to the RS capital, Banja Luka, to support Dodik and described the verdict as “shameful, unlawful, antidemocratic and designed to break down Republika Srpska”. Reports following Dodik’s decision to step down suggest that Serbia’s leadership was not involved in the decision.

International reaction to separatist moves

Joint statements, from the USA, UK, Germany, France and Italy have condemned moves to withdraw RS from the BiH institutions and reaffirmed support for the territorial integrity of BiH, also expressing concern over Dodik’s “separatist and destabilizing rhetoric and actions”. The USA and UK imposed sanctions on Dodik and other RS leaders. In March 2023, the RS Government said it was ending cooperation with the US and UK embassies in BiH and accused both countries of interfering in BiH internal affairs.

In early December 2023, Dodik said that he would declare RS independence if Donald Trump was re-elected US president in 2024. Dodik’s hopes for a changed approach from the second Trump administration appeared to be rebuffed when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticised his actions in March 2025 and called on US partners in the region “to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilizing behaviour”. Following the reversal of separatist legislation in RS, Dodik’s decision to step down in October 2025 and the lifting of US sanctions, the Trump administration said that the US had “worked deliberately and discreetly to secure de-escalation”.

Both the Labour government in the UK and its Conservative predecessor have condemned secessionist moves in RS. The Labour government described legislation adopted by the RS National Assembly in 2025 as in “clear violation of the Dayton peace agreement”. After Dodik stepped aside as RS president in October 2025, UK government responses to parliamentary questions referred to continuing UK work with international partners to ensure the Dayton agreement is upheld. The government said following the November 2025 presidential election in RS that it had no plans to lift sanctions against Dodik.

The EU’s divided response

There have been calls within the EU to impose sanctions on the RS leadership, but some Member States have opposed them. At the beginning of April 2025, Austria and Germany said that Dodik’s actions had crossed a line and that they were barring Dodik from their territory. In May 2025, France and Germany proposed that the EU suspend financial projects benefitting RS and impose targeted sanctions on RS leaders.

Hungary has given financial and political support to RS. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán described Dodik’s sentencing in February 2025 as a “political witch-hunt”. Hungary reportedly sent special police units to RS to rescue Dodik if he was arrested following his sentencing. Hungary also appealed against the request for an Interpol arrest warrant against Dodik, along with Serbia. After Dodik’s appeal against his sentencing was rejected in August 2025, Orbán said that Hungary did not recognise the court ruling against Dodik and criticised “EU-appointed overseers” attempts to remove him. Following the presidential election in late November 2025, Dodik and the president-elect Karan together met with Orbán in Budapest.

The EU has granted EU candidate status to BiH and has sought to encourage dialogue within BiH and reforms to prepare BiH for eventual EU membership. In March 2024, EU leaders at the European Council agreed to commence EU accession negotiations with BiH once various reform steps had been undertaken. However, the Council of the EU (Member State ministers) said in December 2024 that it was seriously concerned about legislation and initiatives in RS than run counter to the EU path of BiH and that actions threatening the territorial integrity and constitutional order or RS would “lead to serious consequences”. Following the political changes in late 2025, EU High Representative for foreign affairs and security policy Kaja Kallas said that recent developments opened up a window for BiH to take steps towards the EU accession process.

Operation Althea

Following the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, a NATO-led force kept the peace in BiH. This role was transferred to an EU-led force, Operation Althea, in 2004. This comprised around 1,100 personnel from 24 countries at the beginning of 2025, though this was reinforced by an additional 400 troops in March 2025.

The UK’s role in the Operation ended shortly after the UK left the EU in 2020, although it could continue to participate under “Berlin plus” arrangements that allow the EU to draw upon NATO assets and capabilities. The government said in April 2025 that it was open to exploring enhanced co-operation with the EU, including through operations and missions in the Western Balkans.