UK defence in 2025: aircraft fleets

The forthcoming strategic defence review (SDR) in 2025 is expected to outline the future direction of the UK’s armed forces and the capabilities it needs to fulfil the demands placed on it.

This briefing, one of a series on UK armed forces capabilities, looks at fixed-wing aircraft (that is, not helicopters). It provides information on current numbers, brief histories of procurement (where relevant) and future aircraft plans, as known prior to the publication of the strategic defence review.

An inventory of equipment does not reflect the true capabilities of the British armed forces. However, the numbers, mix and type of aircraft reflect the UK’s ambitions for the armed forces and guide the types of operations it can conduct or participate in.

This briefing will be updated to reflect any decisions made by the Defence Secretary in the SDR. The SDR is expected to be published in spring 2025; the government has not given a firm date for publication.

What might the SDR say on aircraft?

The government has said it will set out plans for the future mix of Typhoon and F-35 combat aircraft in the SDR.

Trade unions are calling on the Ministry of Defence (MOD) to order more Typhoon aircraft, instead of the US-built F-35s, to sustain domestic military aircraft manufacturing. Older, tranche one aircraft are being retired in 2025 and the rest of the fleet is expected to remain in service until 2040.

In the SDR, the government may confirm plans for the future size of the F-35B Lightning fleet. The previous Conservative government had indicated plans to buy an additional 27 aircraft on top of 48 already ordered, bringing the total fleet up to 74 (one of the 48 was lost at sea in 2021).

While it hasn’t indicated plans to introduce a mix of F-35 variants, the government may clarify whether it intends to continue to operate a fleet of only the F-35B variant, to ensure every aircraft is available for aircraft carrier operations, or consider buying F-35A aircraft, which cannot fly from aircraft carriers but has a greater range and can carry heavier payloads (weapons).

experience in the UK of delays in bringing into service large RPAS, may affect how the UK approaches drone procurement.

What future aircraft are planned?

There are a number of programmes already underway for future aircraft, including:

• Wedgetail: Now expected to enter service towards the end of 2025, with a smaller fleet of three rather than the five originally ordered, the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail will provide an airborne early warning and command and control system (AWAC).
• Protector: the remotely piloted air system armed intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) system to replace Reaper. It is now expected to enter service later in 2025.
• The Global Combat Air Programme/Tempest: A new combat air system to replace Typhoon from the late 2030s. Tempest will be the crewed combat aircraft, likely supported by uncrewed aircraft as part of a system of systems approach to combat air.

Parliamentary interest: numbers, capabilities and gaps

Parliament has taken a keen interest in aircraft procurement; the Defence Select Committee has published two reports in recent years looking at aviation procurement (2023) and future aviation capabilities (2025). The committee also examined capability gaps and other pressures on aircraft operations in its report ready for war (2024).

Calls to increase combat air mass

Lack of mass, or numbers, of combat aircraft is of major concern at present, given the deteriorating security situation in Europe. In 2023 the Defence Select Committee questioned whether current numbers were sufficient to fight a peer adversary such as Russia:

With the prospect of UK involvement in a major war on the European continent closer than it has been for decades, there are serious questions as to whether the UK’s reduced combat air fleet still provides a sufficient deterrent and whether its limited numbers of admittedly highly capable aircraft could overcome a peer adversary in a warfighting context.

The committee called on the MOD to consider “as a matter of urgency” how to increase combat air mass in the short term.

Capability gaps

Capability gaps, or perceived shortfalls, are another concern of MPs.

The RAF is currently without an airborne early warning aircraft following the early retirement of Sentry in 2021 and the delayed entry of its replacement, the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail. The latter is now expected to enter service by the end of 2025, but with a smaller fleet than originally envisaged. The Defence Select Committee described the 2021 decision to cut the fleet from five to three as “the most perverse” of all of the equipment cuts made at the time. The committee went on to say that the capability gap in airborne early warning and control coverage “presents a serious threat to the UK’s warfighting ability”.

In March 2025, the committee also questioned the Ministry of Defence about the availability of A400M Atlas transport aircraft, saying that “a target of 10 available aircraft a day from a fleet of 22 appears remarkably low”.

This briefing does not discuss reports of delays in pilot training.

UK defence industrial base

The government is developing a new defence industrial strategy, also expected to be published in spring 2025, which will set out its approach to defence procurement. This briefing therefore only briefly touches on defence industry concerns.

However, the previous Conservative government committed in the 2018 combat air strategy to develop and retain the skills necessary for a sovereign capability to design and manufacture combat aircraft within the UK. The MOD has committed to developing GCAP, the global combat air programme,in the UK, along with Italy and Japan, and has allocated £12 billion to the programme over the next ten years.

Trade Unions have expressed concern about the future of Typhoon manufacturing in Lancashire. Whilst international orders are continuing, Unite union says a further order from the UK would help secure domestic manufacturing jobs and skills in this sector.