The Office for Budget Responsibility

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the UK’s official independent forecaster of the economy and public finances. It produces the forecasts used by the Chancellor in the Budget. It is the UK’s independent public finances watchdog.

The OBR was established within days of the Coalition Government coming to power in May 2010, with the aim of improving the credibility of forecasts and public finance (fiscal) policy.

The government launched a recruitment campaign for a new chair of the OBR on 20 February 2026. The previous chair, Richard Hughes, resigned following the early release of the OBR’s Autumn Budget 2025 forecast. The Commons Treasury Committee has the power of veto over this appointment.

The Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 established the OBR and sets out its functions and broad governance structure.

The OBR produces forecasts for the economy and the public finances. These are produced independently of the government. In the past, the Treasury’s forecasts were based on the Chancellor’s judgement. This led to the suspicion that forecasts may be over-optimistic. It is hoped that any perception that the forecasts could be politically motivated is reduced by an independent body producing them.

The OBR also comments on whether the government’s policies have a better than 50:50 chance of meeting the Chancellor’s targets for the public finances – or ‘fiscal rules’ – which are set out in the Charter for Budget Responsibility (the Charter). The Charter sets out the OBR’s role, how it performs its duties and the required content of its key publications.

The OBR also examines the long-term sustainability of the public finances, risks surrounding the public finances, spending on welfare and devolved taxes.

The Library briefing The UK's fiscal targets discuss the government's targets for managing the public finances in more detail.