The Middle East in 2023

This briefing looks at issues and trends currently facing the Middle East region and how they might develop in 2023.

This includes the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian, Yemen, and Syrian conflicts, and domestic instability in Lebanon, Israel, and Iraq, all of which held elections in 2022. Issues of international concern include continuing geopolitical competition between China, Russia and the US, particularly in the Arab Gulf, and Iran’s nuclear programme and wider activity overseas (including the provision of drones in support of Russia in Ukraine during 2022).

The briefing primarily focuses on three areas: Iran, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, and great power competition in the Arab Gulf.

The Library briefing, Earthquake in Turkey and Syria, describes the impact of the February 2023 earthquakes and challenges in delivering aid to Syria.

Protests in Iran and its actions abroad

Iran’s regime continues to face significant domestic challenges, with a struggling economy and domestic protests that began with the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022.

Abroad, its provision of drones for use in Ukraine by Russia, reported kidnap and death threats to individuals in Europe and North America, and the stalled talks to restore the nuclear agreement are likely to lead to a renewed debate in 2023 on the West’s relations with Iran.

New Israeli government and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Following Israel’s fifth election since April 2019, in December 2022 former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed a government of the political right. Its governing agreement includes proposals to reform the judicial system and to formally annex settlements in the Occupied West Bank (though with no set deadline). Critics argue the judicial reforms threaten to undermine Israel’s democracy and annexation will further increase regional tensions.

In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process has said the peace process is need of “meaningful initiatives.” Analysts warn of heightened tensions and risk of violence in 2023.

Great power competition

To combat its isolation, Iran has increasing looked to the east, including China and Russia, but long-standing US partners including the Gulf states have also sought to diversify their alliances away from the United States.

Most states in the region have adopted a more neutral and less interventionist approach to Russia’s actions in Ukraine compared to Europe and North America. Analysts judge this as an attempt to avoid upsetting standing security cooperation or pushing Russia closer to the Iranian regime.

While the US security umbrella remains dominant, the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia in December was a reminder than US influence is not without its competitors, especially in the economic sphere.

Other issues for 2023

This briefing also highlights other forthcoming issues, including Iraq, where a new election is expected in 2023, and the conflict in Yemen, where a ceasefire expired in October 2022.

It also highlights UK Government activity, including ongoing trade negotiations, and the Foreign Affairs Committee report on the Government’s approach to state-hostage taking, with a focus on Iran.

Please visit the Library’s Middle East pages for further analysis on the region.