Security guarantees to Ukraine
The UK was the first country to sign a long term bilateral security agreement with Ukraine in January 2024. What security guarantees had NATO and the G7 countries previously made?
At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023, President Zelenskyy sought firmer guarantees on Ukraine’s future membership of the alliance. Beyond the vague commitment set out at the Bucharest summit in 2008 that Ukraine would become a member of NATO, President Zelenskyy instead wanted a clear timeframe for accession and security guarantees from its member states.
In a Summit Communiqué, NATO leaders said that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO” but that the alliance would be “in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met”.
Instead, allies agreed a “substantial package of expanded political and practical support” to bring Ukraine closer to NATO, including exemption from NATO’s Membership Action Plan process, the creation of a NATO-Ukraine Council and a multi-year programme of security assistance.
Washington Summit 2024At the Washington Summit in July 2024, allies described Ukraine’s path to membership as “irreversible” and reaffirmed the view adopted at its 2023 summit that Ukraine’s future “is in NATO”. However, the Alliance did not extend an invitation to Ukraine to join and focused more on what assistance NATO could provide to Ukraine as a “bridge” to Ukraine’s eventual membership.
G7 Declaration on security guaranteesIn July 2023, long-term security guarantees were offered outside of the NATO framework by the G7 member states. Those guarantees commit to developing sustainable Ukrainian forces, capable of defending Ukraine and deterring Russia in the future, and to consult within 24 hours in the event of future Russian aggression and provide any assistance deemed necessary. What the arrangements do not do, however, is replicate the Article V mutual defence clause that lies at the heart of the NATO alliance.
Those guarantees are being formalised through bilateral security commitments and arrangements, in accordance with the legal and constitutional requirements of each country. The intention is for those agreements to expire once Ukraine achieves NATO membership.
To date, 32 nations have signed that G7 Declaration and bilateral security agreements have either been concluded or are currently under negotiation. The UK was the first country conclude a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine on 12 January 2024.
While welcoming those security commitments, President Zelenskyy has made clear that they cannot be a substitute for Ukraine’s eventual membership of NATO.