Scotland's economy
There will be a Westminster Hall debate on Scotland's economy on Tuesday 15th October at 9:30am. The debate will be opened by John Grady MP.
Scotland’s population is estimated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to be 5.5 million in mid-2023, or 8% of the UK population.
GDP and economic growthThe value of economic output, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), in Scotland was £187 billion in 2022, 7.5% of the UK’s GDP. These figures are from the ONS and are the most recent available. These data don’t assign offshore economic activity, such as oil and gas extraction in the North Sea, to any UK nation or English region.
The Scottish Government also publishes estimates for Scottish GDP, including some with estimates for offshore economic activity. The latest estimate for GDP in Scotland was £218 billion in 2023 when including its own calculation allocating offshore activity to Scotland on the basis of geographic share. On this basis, Scotland’s GDP would be approximately 8% of UK GDP in 2023.
Economic growth in Scotland rebounded over the first half of 2024 after weakness in 2023, when the effects of high inflation constrained activity. GDP in Scotland increased by 0.6% in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. This was similar than the 0.5% recorded for Q1 2024. These figures are similar to quarterly GDP growth in the UK of 0.7% in Q1 2024 and 0.5% in Q2 2024.
Compared with 10 years ago, the Scottish economy has grown more slowly than the UK overall. GDP in Scotland is 8.4% larger in Q2 2024 compared with Q2 2014, whereas UK GDP is 14.3% larger.
Labour marketThe unemployment rate in Scotland was 4.2% in the three-month period from May to July 2024. This was similar to the UK figure of 4.1%.
Average wages for full-time employees in Scotland was £702 per week in April 2023 (the most recent data). This compares with a UK average of £682.
Economic strategyThe Scottish Government’s 10-year National Strategy for Economic Transformation sets out to create a “more prosperous, fairer and greener economy that works for everyone”.
The strategy was introduced in 2022, with progress reports published every year. The Scottish Parliamentary Information Centre article, How is the Scottish Government’s economic strategy progressing?, provides an overview of the strategy and progress to date.
Press
Scottish economy employment growth near top of UK league
Ian McConnell
The Herald, 9 October 2024
The challenges of changing Scotland's economy
Douglas Fraser
BBC, 13 September 2024
‘People are walking away’: UK windfall tax hits North Sea oil investment
Lukanyo Mnyanda
Financial Times, 20 August 2024
Scotland must embrace ‘ambitious’ industrial strategy, say economists
Ross Hunter
The National, 3 August 2024
Parliamentary material
HC Deb 4 September 2024, c 295-96
Scottish Parliament: 19 June 2024
Library publications
Regional and National Economic Indicators
House of Commons Library, 8 October 2024
The Barnett formula and fiscal devolution
House of Commons Library, 29 May 2024
Further reading
FAI Economic Commentary Q3 2024
Fraser of Allander Institute, 4 October 2024
Fiscal pre-budget update: Cabinet Secretary for Finance - 3 September 2024
Scottish Finance Secretary, 3 September 2024
Immediate response to the Scottish Finance Minister’s announcement of in-year spending cuts
Institute for Fiscal Studies, 3 September 2024
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2023-24
Scottish Government, 14 August 2024
Lower oil and gas prices hit Scotland’s underlying public finances in 2023-24
Institute for Fiscal Studies, 14 August 2024
Explainers to topics related to Scottish public finances
Scottish Fiscal Commission