Recent updates to UK migration estimates

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is currently implementing a new methodology for estimating long-term migration to and from the UK. It is moving away from survey data to using administrative data sources to improve the accuracy and coverage of estimates produced.

Most recently, in November 2025, the ONS published revised estimates based on these new methods and updated data sources.

This briefing explains the changes that have been made and looks at what the data can and cannot tell us. The estimates presented here are classed as ‘official statistics in development’ and may be subject to further revision as the methodology for producing them is refined.

Migration estimates for different nationality groups

The ONS currently publish migration estimates for:

• British nationals
• EU+ nationals (all EU countries and Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland)
• non-EU+ nationals

Different methodologies are used to the produce estimates for each of these groups, and those used for British and EU+ nationals have both been recently updated.

British nationals

Migration estimates for British nationals used to be based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). In November 2025, the ONS published new estimates based on the Department for Work and Pensions’ Registration and Population Interaction Database, which uses tax and benefit records to infer migration patterns.

Revised estimates based on this new methodology were backdated to the year ending June 2021. The previous series of admin-based estimates were backdated to 2012. The ONS advises that, due to the different methods used to create them, estimates for British nationals pre- and post-June 2021 are not comparable.

The chart below shows estimates for how many British nationals’ have moved to the UK (immigration), left the UK (emigration), and the overall difference between the two (net migration) since the year ending June 2012. For the entire period shown, net migration is estimated to have been negative, meaning more British nationals have been leaving than arriving.

Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2025, table 1

The IPS is known to have historically undercounted British nationals immigrating to and emigrating from the UK, and the revised estimates now show consistently higher levels than previously estimated. However, net migration estimates remain broadly similar. It is hard to say how migration trends may have changed over the whole period shown on the chart, because we don’t know how much of the difference between the two series is attributable to methodological changes, as opposed to actual changes in migration.

When looking at estimates based on the new methodology only, net migration of British nationals appears to have decreased by 25% between the year ending June 2021 and the year ending June 2025 (from -87,000 to -109,000). This appears to have been driven by a reduction in the number of British nationals immigrating, or returning, to the UK, while the number leaving has remained broadly unchanged.

The latest estimates of long-term international migration are provisional and will be revised in future editions, once more complete data becomes available.

Migration by age group

The latest release of migration estimates includes an age breakdown for British nationals for the year ending March 2025 only. This shows that British nationals emigrating from the UK were generally younger than those immigrating: around three quarters (76%) of those emigrating from the UK were aged under 35, compared with 57% of those immigrating.

During this period, more British nationals under the age of 45 left the UK than arrived, resulting in negative net migration. Whereas among those aged 45 and over, more arrived than left.

Overall, younger British nationals were more likely to both immigrate and emigrate than older people, reflecting a longstanding pattern observed in the UK and across Europe.

Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2025, table 7a

Challenges of producing migration estimates for British nationals

An ONS blog post published in November 2025 provides some further analysis of the latest migration estimates. It also explains the challenges in estimating migration for British nationals, who represent a small share of British people travelling to and from the UK on a daily basis.

A further complication is that, unlike most foreign nationals, British nationals are not subject to immigration controls, leading to a lack of official data collection at the border. The ONS says this makes migration of British nationals one of the most difficult elements to estimate in its long-term international migration work.

The blog mentioned above also highlights some of the limitations of the available data, which offers little insight into why British nationals migrate or where they are going. Based on analysis of other sources, some migration experts, including at Oxford University’s Migration Observatory, have suggested that some recent emigrants are people who originally moved from the EU to the UK during the free movement period, obtained British citizenship, and have since returned to their country of origin. These people may have been joined by British partners and children. This view is supported by UN data showing a recent rise in the number of British nationals moving abroad, particularly to Eastern European countries.

Despite only recently changing its methodology, the ONS aims to move to using data on actual travel patterns, rather than tax and benefit data, to measure British migration in future, provided this is able to meet data quality standards.

EU+ nationals

Since January 2021, EU+ nationals have required permission to live in the UK (either a visa, status on the EU Settlement Scheme, or another form of indefinite leave to remain). This change has resulted in the availability of comprehensive Home Office borders and immigration data for this group.

Migration estimates for EU+ nationals are now based on Home Office travel and visa data, using a method consistent with that used for non-EU+ nationals. Previously, estimates were based on the same tax and benefits data currently used to produce estimates for British nationals.

The updated method is considered an improvement because it is based on actual travel patterns, rather than assumptions drawn from interactions with the tax and benefits system. Although tax and benefit data is still used to account for Irish nationals, whose movements through the Common Travel Area are not captured in Home Office data.

Under the new methodology, both immigration and emigration estimates for EU+ nationals have generally been revised downward. Immigration is about 8% lower, while emigration has decreased by around 30% over the revised period. This has resulted in higher net migration figures for this group, although both methods show negative net migration in recent periods, indicating that more EU+ nationals are leaving the UK than arriving.

Because of the change in methodology, the ONS recommends exercising caution when comparing estimates published before and after June 2021.

Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2025, table 1

Non-EU+ nationals

The method for estimating migration of non-EU+ nationals has remained unchanged and continues to use Home Office borders and immigration data. However, these estimates have also recently been updated to reflect improvements to the underlying data. The revisions for this group are smaller than those made to the estimates for British and EU+ nationals.

Non-EU+ migration has been driving overall migration trends since 2021, including both a post-pandemic spike in net migration and a recent sharp fall.

Most people arriving in the UK over this period have been non-EU+ nationals; in the year ending June 2025, this group made up 75% of total immigration. Emigration of non-EU+ nationals has also been increasing since 2022 and is now at similar levels to that for British nationals (286,000 annually for non-EU+ nationals and 252,000 for British nationals). Non-EU+ nationals are currently the only broad nationality group with positive net migration.

Source: ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2025, table 1

What effect have these revisions had on overall migration estimates?

Using the new methods, estimates of both immigration and emigration for all nationalities have been revised upwards. These increases have been driven by changes to estimates for British nationals, where differences from previous estimates are most pronounced. Despite these revisions, the overall trend in net migration remains broadly unchanged, as increases in immigration and emigration largely offset each other.

The chart below shows the difference between the revised net migration estimates (based on the new methods discussed) and those previously published.

The updated estimates now have a slightly higher and earlier peak of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023, compared with the previous estimate of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023.

This is followed by a sharper fall; the estimate for net migration in the year ending December 2024 is now 345,000, compared with the previous estimate of 431,000. This change is driven by an upward revision to the emigration estimate for British nationals, from 77,000 to 257,000.

Source: ONS, Improving long-term international migration statistics; updating our methods and estimates, table 3

Further reading

The Commons Library Migration statistics briefing provides further background, and some analysis of the latest migration estimates and longer-term trends.