Kenya since the 2007/08 crisis
This note reviews major political developments since the 2007/08 crisis, whose legacies Kenya is still struggling to overcome. Elections are scheduled for March 2013 but two of the candidates seeking high office - Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto - are due to stand trial at the International Criminal Court in the following month. Meanwhile, Kenyan troops have now been in southern Somalia for over a year and helped re-take the strategic port of Kismayo in September 2012. But there remains uncertainty about Kenya's objectives in Somalia.
The violence that followed the December 2007 presidential election in Kenya left over 1000 people dead and displaced an estimated 300,000 people across the country. To end the crisis, a power-sharing accord was agreed. This accord still holds and a significant proportion of its provisions have been fully or partly implemented. The power-sharing government formed under it remains in office. However, Kenya is very much still dealing with the legacies of the crisis. Two of the political leaders implicated – Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and former Minister William Ruto, both with high political ambitions in elections now re-scheduled to March 2013 – face trial by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. The trials are scheduled to begin in April 2013, potentially before a presidential second round is held. This could yet thwart their political ambitions. The two men have recently formed an unlikely electoral alliance that many view as little more than a marriage of convenience. Kenyatta is expected to be the presidential candidate, with Ruto his deputy. If Kenyatta does make it onto the ballot paper, he will likely face Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who has formed his own alliance with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka. Odinga, who is strongly backed by the international community, is the narrow favourite to win.
Amidst the ongoing domestic political turbulence, in October 2011 Kenya launched a military incursion into southern Somalia against the armed militant group known as al-Shabaab. The UK Government, the EU and the US all gave the Kenyan incursion their support – provided it remained consistent with international law. Kenyan forces have subsequently formally become part of the African Union Mission in Somalia, although this has so far meant little in practice. They played a big part in the capture of the vital southern Somali port of Kismayo at the end of September. Questions remain about just how far Kenya is pursuing its own interests in Somalia.
Economic growth during 2011 and 2012 has been at just over 4% per annum and the IMF projects a further increase in growth rates up to 2016. But these apparently positive prospects could be undone if there is a resurgence of political violence. Kenya has been identified as one of the UK Department for International Development’s 27 focus countries in its recent bilateral review, triggering a 72% increase in aid over the period 2011/12 to 2014/15.