France: recent political developments and the 2024 National Assembly elections

The French President, Emmanuel Macron, called early elections for the National Assembly following the European Parliament (EP) elections in June 2024. In the EP elections, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) were the leading party with 31.4% of the vote.

Macron called the National Assembly election just two years after the last Assembly elections in 2022 when no political party or alliance had won a majority. Macron said that he could not act “as if nothing had happened” and said that France needed a clear majority.

Changes in the party system in France

Prior to 2017, when Macron was first elected president at the head of his new centrist En Marche! (EM) party, French politics was dominated by rival blocs on the centre-right and centre-left. EM (later becoming Renaissance, forming part of the broader Ensemble alliance) took votes from both its left and its right, with the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) and centre-right Republicans (LR) losing ground in elections in 2017 and 2022.

Further to the right, RN has however made gains. The presidential elections in 2017 and 2022 were both contested in second-round run offs between Macron and Le Pen. In both elections, supporters of other candidates in the first round backed Macron in the second-round, forming a so-called “republican front”.

Le Pen has pursued a strategy known as “de-demonisation” to make RN, often labelled a “far right” party more acceptable to voters and establish it as a potential governing force. This has involved paying greater attention to cost-of-living issues, while also presenting a hardline stance on migration, calling for a ban on the Islamic headscarf, and for preference for French citizens in public housing and social services. Le Pen has shifted from advocating French withdrawal from the EU to pledging to keep France in the EU and reform it from within. Critics have highlighted Le Pen’s and RN’s ties with Russia and previous pro-Russia line, although Le Pen sought to distance RN from these positions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The highest placed left-of-centre candidate in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections was Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France Unbowed (LFI), which has eclipsed the PS as the main party of the left. Mélenchon has advocated wealth taxes and high tax rates for the top earners and in the past has been supportive of Russia and authoritarian left-wing leaders in Latin America and advocated French withdrawal from NATO and the EU.

LFI, the PS, the Communist Party (PCF) and Ecologists formed an alliance for the 2022 National Assembly elections. PS left the alliance in late 2023 after Mélenchon refused to describe Hamas as a terrorist group. There were also splits over Ukraine, with PS and the Ecologists disagreeing with LFI and PCF criticism of the government approach. The alliance was nevertheless resurrected as the New Popular Front (NFP) for the 2024 election.

Developments since 2022

Following the 2022 elections, Ensemble continued to lead the government relying on the support of LR in key votes. The government made frequent use of Article 49.3 of the constitution that allows the government to force some legislation through parliament without a vote which can then only be overturned by a vote of no-confidence in the government, with LR supporting it in confidence votes. This included a pension reform in early 2023, to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64 by 2030, amid much protest. A new restrictive immigration law was adopted by the National Assembly in December 2023, with support from LR and RN, leading to disquiet within the governing coalition.

The election campaign

Polls at the start of the 2024 election campaign indicated that RN would win the most seats, but NFP closed the gap during the campaign. There was a split in LR, with its leader Eric Ciotti backing an alliance with RN which the bulk of the party refused to go along with.

Both RN and NFP pledged to reverse the government’s pension reform, while also making a range of other spending pledges. RN also proposed measures to drastically reduce legal and illegal immigration while NFP pledged to reverse the immigration law adopted in December 2023.

During the campaign, President Macron continued to attack “the extremes” of the right and left. Ensemble leaders attacked the spending plans of both the RN and NFP as unworkable and irresponsible. RN rowed back on some of its costly pledges, and also distanced itself from previous pledges to withdraw from NATO’s military command and promote dialogue with Russia.

Positions taken by Mélenchon and others on the left on Israel and Palestine were highlighted during the campaign, with some of their opponents accusing them of antisemitism. Accusations of far left antisemitism also came from RN, but RN also faced accusations of antisemitism and racism, with media reports highlighting comments and past unlawful behaviour among some of its candidates.

Election results

Elections to the National Assembly are based on a two-round system in the 577 constituencies. To win in the first round, candidates need to obtain 50% or more votes from at least 25% of registered voters. Where no candidate wins in the first round, candidates winning more than 12.5% of the votes of registered voters go through to the second round.

After the first round of voting on 30 June, RN were the leading political party with 29.3% of the vote and leading in 297 seats. 501 of the 577 seats went to a second round, with over 300 of these contests having three or more candidates. Both Ensemble and NFP then called on their candidates to withdraw from second-round contests where there was a better placed candidate to beat RN. The instruction from Ensemble was, however, less clear where the NFP candidate was from LFI, with Ensemble leaders indicating the call to withdraw would only apply where the NFP candidate shared “republican” values.

Withdrawals reduced the number of three-way contests in the second round on 7 July to under 100. Although RN again finished ahead on vote share, with 32.1% of the vote, the “republican front” meant it finished behind NFP and Ensemble on seats. NFP won 178 seats over the two rounds, followed by Ensemble with 150 and RN with 125. Ciotti’s group brought an additional 17 deputies allied to the RN, while the main LR slate won 39 seats.

Far from bringing the “clarification” that Macron had sought, commentators noted that the elections had brought greater instability and further weakened his authority. Whereas prior to the election the governing parties had been able to win votes in the National Assembly with the help of LR, this would no longer be possible in the incoming Assembly.

Michel Barnier leads new government

As the leading bloc in terms of seats, the NFP demanded that it should lead the government. However, Macron insisted that his choice of prime minister would need to be able to command a wider majority. Government formation was delayed over the summer. On 5 September 2024, Macron appointed Michel Barnier of LR (a former foreign minister, European Commissioner and EU Brexit negotiator) as Prime Minister. Reports suggested that this followed talks with Le Pen, who had said RN would oppose other candidates but not block Barnier.

Barnier’s government was announced on 21 September 2024, with most ministers coming from Ensemble and a smaller number from LR. The government survived an early no confidence vote on 8 October 2024, with RN abstaining on a vote tabled by the NPF parties. However, the government fell on 4 December 2024 when RN and the NPF parties combined to defeat it on a vote of confidence after it had used the Article 49.3 procedure to push through the 2025 budget.

Bayrou government

After cross-party consultations which excluded RN and LFI, Macron named the leader of his Ensemble allies MoDem, Francois Bayrou, as Prime Minister on 13 December. The new government named on 23 December was again drawn mainly from the Ensemble alliance and LR. However, Bayrou has sought to win tacit backing from the PS by offering to revisit the 2023 pension reform and other policy concessions.

On 16 January, PS abstained on a motion of no confidence in the government tabled by LFI, enabling the motion to be defeated. RN also abstained. Neither PS nor RN have ruled out backing a no confidence motion in the government at a later date, with a renewed attempt to pass a budget for 2025 posing a critical test for the new government. LFI has made clear that it wishes to bring down the government again and also force Macron to resign and hasten an early presidential election. Le Pen has also hinted she favours this goal.