EU elections 2024: Results and the new European Parliament

The European Parliament (EP) elections held on 6-9 June 2024 were the tenth direct elections to the Parliament and the first since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020.

Commentaries on the 2024 election results focused on gains in several countries made by parties described as far right or populist radical right and critical of the European integration process, and mainly affiliated to either the Identity and Democracy (ID) group or the European Conservatives and Reformist (ECR) group. These gains however fell short of some pre-election projections, and the three main pro-EU groups, the European People’s Party, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew Europe, maintained a majority within the EP.

Work of the European parliament

Since the first direct elections in 1979, EU treaty changes have increased the powers of the EP so that it now jointly adopts most EU legislation with the Council of the EU (ministerial representatives of each Member State government). It also “elects” the European Commission President based on a nomination of a single candidate by the European Council (EU heads of state and government) and it then votes to approve the appointment of the new European Commission following the EP elections.

Until 2019, the work of the EP was dominated by the two leading political groups, the centre-right EPP group and the centre-left S&D group. The 2019 election was the first election in which these two groups combined did not have a majority in the EP, but they have subsequently worked with the centrist liberal Renew Europe group to structure the work of the EP. The three groups often form informal coalitions to adopt legislation.

Political groups in the EP are formed by nationally elected delegations according to political affiliation. EP rules require political groups to have at least 23 members drawn from at least one-quarter (seven) of the Member States.

2024 election results

The elections saw parties affiliated to the ECR and ID groups make gains. Parties affiliated with the EPP and with the Left group also made slight gains overall. Parties affiliated with the Renew Europe group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (EFA) suffered the biggest losses in seats. Losses for the Greens were however concentrated in the largest Member States, Germany and France, and they increased their representation in other Member States. Centre-left parties affiliated with the S&D group also made losses overall.

The biggest loss for Renew Europe came in France, where President Macron’s Renaissance-led list came second to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), which became the leading party in the ID group. Along with the German Christian Democrat CDU-CDU (the leading party in the EPP), RN returned the highest number of MEPs (30) in the EP. Although parties in other Member States obtained a higher vote share, the relatively high number of MEPs for these parties reflected the higher number of Parliament seats allocated to France and Germany. The result in France prompted President Macron to call early elections for the French National Assembly.

ID parties were also the leading parties in Austria (the Freedom Party) and Belgium (Flemish Interest) and came second in the Netherlands (the Party for Freedom). Further to the right in Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was expelled from the ID group in the run-up to the election, came second with 15.9% of the vote. In Italy, the governing Brothers of Italy (FDL), was the leading party with 28.8% of the vote and 24 MEPs. FDL became the leading party (in terms of number of MEPs) within the ECR group. The highest vote share for an ECR party was for the Law and Justice party (PiS), the ruling party in Poland from 2015-2023, although this was a fall in vote share to 36.2% and 20 MEPs. It finished behind the governing Civic Coalition in Poland, centred around Civic Platform (part of the EPP group).

Another high performing party on the right was the ruling Fidesz party in Hungary, which left the EPP in 2021. Its vote share (in alliance with a smaller party) of 44.8% was however lower than that received in 2019.

As well as Germany, EPP parties were the leading parties in several other countries including Spain, Greece, Croatia, Bulgaria, Slovenia and the Baltic states. S&D parties were the leading parties in Portugal and Denmark, although they won their most seats in Spain and Italy where they came second. A Greens/EFA affiliate (Green Left) was the leading party in Denmark, and a Renew Europe affiliate (Progressive Slovakia) was the leading party in Slovakia. Parties affiliated with the Left group came second in Finland, Greece and Cyprus, and this group was further bolstered following the election when the Italian Five Star Movement joined it.

Formation of new political groups

Commentaries both before and after the election focused on the challenges posed to the “centrist” and “pro-EU” majority parties by an increased number of MEPs on the right. Both the RN leader Marine Le Pen and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, called for a united right group to be formed which would also include ID and ECR parties. At the end of June, Orbán launched a new “Patriots for Europe” group, alongside former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) leader Herbert Kickl. Babiš’s ANO 2011 party had left the Renew Europe group following the election. Nearly all ID parties then followed the FPO into the new group, including RN and the Italian League with the ID group then ceasing to exist. Spain’s Vox hitherto a member of ECR, also joined the group, which became the third biggest in the EP.

Another smaller group further to the right, Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), was also formed in early July, with over half of its MEPs coming from the AfD. ECR remained as a separate group, with FDL and PiS remaining its leading parties. According to some commentaries, membership of a united group on the right would cause difficulties for Meloni’s attempts to develop a broader alliance on the centre-right including the EPP and to influence EU policy-making more broadly.

Political Groups in outgoing and new Parliament Coalitions in the new Parliament

Combined, the three political groups on the right have 187 MEPs, just over a quarter of the total, but they are viewed as unlikely to form a coherent and united bloc. Following the election, leaders of the EPP, S&D and Renew Europe groups stressed their commitment to working together as a pro-EU “democratic alliance”. The S&D and Renew Europe, together with the Greens/EFA, also stressed that they rejected cooperation with groups on the right, including the ECR.

Studies have indicated that while an informal coalition of the three pro-EU centre groups won most votes in outgoing EP, there were also issues where the EPP, Renew Europe, ECR and sometimes ID voted together to win votes. An informal centre-left coalition involving Renew Europe, S&D, Greens/EFA and the Left also won some votes, though such a coalition would be less plausible under the new parliamentary arithmetic in 2024.

As was the case in the outgoing EP for the ID group, the new Patriots for Europe and ESN groups have been excluded from senior positions in the new EP, including committee chairs and the 14 Parliament vice-president posts. However, whereas some ECR nominees were excluded from these positions in the outgoing parliament, its nominees have been elected to these posts since the new parliament convened in July 2024. There is usually agreement among the political groups that these positions are distributed according to their relative numerical strength.

Election of European Commission President

Prior to the election, the EP political groups followed the lead candidate (Spitzenkandidat) process. This involved nominating their favoured candidates for the European Commission President post prior to the election with the expectation that the candidate of the leading party in the election is then nominated by the European Council after the election. The European Council had rejected the EPP lead candidate following the 2019 election. However, in 2024, the EPP candidate was Ursula von der Leyen, who had already been serving in the post since 2019. Von der Leyen’s nomination was approved by the European Council on 27 June.

The European Council agreed on the nomination of von der Leyen as part of a package of top jobs for the new institutional cycle, which reflected a balance of candidates from the three “pro-EU centre” groups. Former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa (representing the S&D group) was appointed as President of the European Council and Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (representing the Renew Group) was nominated as High Representative for foreign affairs and security policy. Both Meloni and Orbán were highly critical about the way in which EU leaders from these parties had carved up the positions between themselves, with Meloni abstaining and Orbán voting against von der Leyen’s appointment.

Von der Leyen was elected as European Commission President by the European Parliament on the 18 July, with 401 votes in favour and 284 votes against. The votes for von der Leyen reportedly came mainly from the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe and Greens/EFA group, although some members of these groups voted against. Prior to the vote Von der Leyen had held talks with several political groups, including the ECR and Greens/EFA with the latter seeking assurances on maintaining the EU Green Deal and the former wanting it scaled back. On the day of the vote, the Greens/EFA group said they had secured commitments on the EU Green Deal and would be voting for von der Leyen. Most ECR parties, including Meloni’s FDI voted against, citing her concessions to the Greens. The other groups on the right, Patriots for Europe and ESN, voted against, as did the Left group.