Canada: 2025 federal election

The election saw 343 members elected to the House of Commons.

16 political parties contested the election, although, as with every election in Canada’s history, only the Conservatives or Liberals were likely to form a government.

The Conservatives had enjoyed double-digit leads over the Liberals in national opinion polling ahead of Justin Trudeau’s resignation, but the election campaign saw Carney leading a much tighter race as voters saw him as best-placed to stand up against US President Donald Trump, who had imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and made calls to annex the country.

Although domestic matters, such as the cost of living and rising crime, remained important to many voters, to others the election became a referendum on which candidate could better oppose President Trump’s proposals and manage Canada-US relations.

Election results

Although the election took place on 28 April, it took several weeks for all of the results to be confirmed.

Elections in four areas were particularly close and went to judicial recounts, a formal means of verifying the counts, each presided over by a judge. For one seat, in Terrebonne, Quebec, the Liberal Party won by just one vote.

On 23 May, Elections Canada, the independent, non-partisan agency responsible for conducting federal elections and referendums in Canada, published the final election results for all seats.

The results showed that the Liberal Party, under incumbent prime minister Mark Carney, had retained power, securing almost 44% of votes cast and 169 seats in the House of Commons. This was 3 seats short of the 172 needed for an overall majority and the Liberals will form a minority government.

The Conservative Party remains in opposition as the second-largest party with 144 seats, an increase on the 119 seats it gained in the 2021 election. However, the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, lost his own seat (Carleton, in Ontario) by 4,513 votes. He had held the seat for over two decades.

Bloc Québécois gained 22 seats, with the New Democratic Party (NDP) reduced to seven seats and the Green Party to one.

Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP, also lost his seat (Burnaby Central, in British Columbia) by 12,392 votes, coming third behind the Liberal and Conservative candidates. Jonathan Pedneault, co-leader of the Greens, lost his seat (Outremont, in Quebec) by 21,485 votes.

What do the results mean? Minority government

Like Justin Trudeau, his predecessor, Mark Carney will lead a minority government that is reliant on maintaining internal discipline and the support of other parties.

As the Liberals are only three votes short of a majority, either the Bloc Québécois, who have 22 seats, or the NDP, with seven, could give the Liberals enough support to pass legislation.

The NDP supported Trudeau’s government for most of his premiership, but, in September 2024, ended its formal supply and confidence agreement.

The seven NDP members elected in 2025 have not committed to pursuing a similar agreement with Carney’s government.

Analysts such as those at the Economist Intelligence Unit expect Carney will likely reach out to Bloc Québécois, suggesting there may be some concessions on issues tied to Quebec autonomy as a consequence.

At least in the short term, the Bloc Québécois leader, Yves-François Blanchet, has urged parties to set aside their differences while Canada negotiates with US President Donald Trump, calling for a “partisan truce” for however long US-Canadian trade negotiations take.

New Democratic Party loses “recognised party” status

In winning only seven seats in the election, the NDP lost “recognised party” status. The Parliament of Canada Act states that a political party needs at least 12 elected members to be recognised in the House of Commons, which comes with financial allowances and funding for their research groups.

Members of recognised parties may also sit on parliamentary committees and ask more questions to the government during question times.

Despite this, interim NDP Leader Don Davies has said the party will still play a “profoundly important role” in this Parliament and that with a minority government in power, any party that has seven seats “obviously has a balance of power”.

Conservative leadership and Pierre Poilievre

Having lost his seat in the election, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre can no longer be leader of the opposition, according to the House of Commons website. However, he remains party leader.

The current leader of the opposition is Andrew Scheer, the Member of Parliament for Regina-Qu’Appelle since 2004 and a former Conservative Party leader. He is serving as interim leader of the opposition while Pierre Poilievre seeks to return to Parliament in a by-election.

On 2 May, just four days after the election, Alberta MP Damien Kurek announced his intention to resign, paving the way for Poilievre to run in a by-election. Kurek officially resigned on 17 June as, according to House of Commons rules, he needed to wait 30 days after his election was posted in the Canada Gazette before he could formally step down.

Kurek’s riding of Battle River-Crowfoot is one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and he won 82.8% of the vote in the 2025 election.

On 30 June, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election will take place on 18 August.