To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the estimate in the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, Global Economy in the Shadow of War, published on 14 April, that the UK will have the lowest per capita growth and the joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year.
My Lords, we did not start this war, but it affects us. The IMF’s updated forecasts build on its judgment that the UK is more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts—a problem this Government are tackling but which the previous Government failed to address in 14 years. The IMF has described our plan as the appropriate response and forecasts that the UK will be the fastest-growing European G7 economy this year and next.
I salute the Minister for his stout defence and robust response, but it is not altogether shared by the gilt markets: witness our highest borrowing costs for 18 years. It is not just the IMF but the OECD—both have cut their growth forecast for the UK by a greater margin than for any other G7 country. Yes, they flag up the openness of our economy and the gas-intensive nature of our energy mix, but they also point to the UK’s zero per capita growth throughout the second half of last year. With inflation now rising, is the Chancellor not premature in making repeated claims of having built stability and resilience in our economy?
No, I do not think she is, because the spring forecast showed precisely that: that Britain is well placed to weather this conflict. Inflation was at 3% and it was set to fall to target; borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy; GDP per capita was forecast to rise by 5.6% over this Parliament, compared with a fall of 0.2% in the previous Parliament; and we had increased headroom to over £23 billion. As I say, all these things mean we are well placed to weather this conflict. On the actual outturn data, last week’s figures show that the economy grew faster than expected in the three months to February, growth for the three months to January was upgraded, and yesterday’s labour market figures for February showed unemployment coming down and real wages continuing to rise.
My Lords, does the Minister agree that the only genuine way to look at the prosperity of our citizens in this country is GDP per capita? Does he also agree that one of the big detractors of growth in GDP per capita is the growing and significant welfare spend? If not, why not?
I am very happy to agree with the noble Lord on the first part of his question: as I have said already, GDP per capita at the time of the spring forecast was forecast to rise by 5.6% over this Parliament. That compares with a fall of 0.2% in the previous Parliament—the worst Parliament on record for living standards. On welfare spending, as he knows, the previous Government increased welfare spending by £88 billion.
My Lords, the Government keep looking in the rearview mirror. The IMF report and today’s inflation numbers are telling us that forecasts made in January essentially now go into the bin, and what we need are policies to deal with uncertainty and provide resilience. The new BICS provides energy-intensive industries with some benefits, but no money will flow for a year. When will firms know what that money will be and when they will get it so that they can plan? Is anything going to be put in place for food and agriculture? We are seeing a real rise in food prices and potential food shortages. Small businesses are, frankly, on the brink. Are there new policies to come forward that will provide the resilience we need?
The noble Baroness is absolutely right to point to the need for economic resilience. As she knows, we must do more on economic security so that the UK does not continue to be more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts are. Since the election, we have invested in clean homegrown energy—renewables and nuclear. Yesterday, the Chancellor announced steps to go further, harnessing our domestic supply of oil and gas production from the North Sea, further removing barriers to new renewables investment, and reforming our energy system by further weakening link between high gas prices and electricity prices. The noble Baroness asked specifically about BICS; she will know that the consultation on scheme design and eligibility was published last week.
My Lords, is it not the case that inflation, economic growth and living standards were improving until we had the problem with Iran? Is it also not the case that, as soon as that problem has gone, the Government have the policies to drive the economy?
My noble friend is absolutely right. The economy, at the time of the spring forecast, showed that we are well placed going into this conflict. Inflation was at 3% and is set to fall to target—a much lower starting point than when Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy. We had increased headroom for over £23 billion, giving us the buffer to respond to these shocks, and GDP per capita was forecast to rise. Therefore, my noble friend is absolutely right. Outturn data for February, the final month before this conflict began, showed that the economy grew faster than anyone was expecting.
My Lords, I encourage the Financial Secretary not to become mesmerised by IMF forecasts. The British economy has proved remarkably resilient over the past 18 years in the face of a succession of shocks. Generally, the Government have got into difficulty when the Treasury and the Bank have done too much rather than too little. Can he confirm that any interventions will be targeted and that the Government will maintain their inflation target and stick to their fiscal rules?
I absolutely confirm to the noble Lord all three of those points. As he knows, the price cap is giving households certainty on their bills until July, ahead of the winter months. As we respond to this crisis, we must absolutely learn from the mistakes of the past, some of which he mentioned. The previous Government pushed up borrowing, interest rates, inflation and mortgage costs with an unfunded, untargeted package of support under Liz Truss, and they gave the most support to the wealthiest households. We will not repeat the mistakes of the previous Government. We are planning for every eventuality so that we can keep costs down for everyone and provide support for those who need it most, acting within our fiscal rules, as the noble Lord said, to keep inflation and interest rates as low as possible.
My Lords, the economic forecasts set out by the IMF and, indeed, by the noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, are very concerning from a national standpoint. Party passions aside, I believe that we must pursue a national growth path in the national interest. That needs to include a reduction, not an increase, in regulation, especially in building and planning; a cut in welfare spending, as we have heard; support for enterprise; and full utilisation of our energy resources. Does the Minister agree with that?
Yes, and we are doing most of that, but the noble Baroness is opposing most of it. She said that we need to pursue a growth path. She will know that one of the most important things for growth is keeping inflation and interest rates as low as possible, but her party has unfunded proposals to deal with this crisis that would stoke inflation and put up interest rates. Exactly the wrong thing to do now would be to have a knee-jerk response to this crisis that would put household finances at risk. During the last energy shock, the previous Government got the response completely wrong, which meant higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher taxes. We will not repeat those mistakes.
As well as the OECD report, the respected EY Item Club has said that the economy will flatline in the second and third quarters, leading to a real risk of recession. Deloitte has said that business confidence is at its lowest since Covid, and unemployment is thus now expected to rise to 5.8% by 2027. One of the reasons for that is the Employment Rights Act. The Prime Minister may not respect employees’ rights but business does, and business is stopping hiring for that reason. Given the war, is it not time to soften the effects of the Employment Rights Act?
The noble Lord pointed to some forecasts that are being made, but he then drew the wrong conclusion. I point him to the conflict going on in Iran: that is not a war that we started, but it will affect us. As I have already said, we went into this crisis with the economy well prepared to weather it, which we are doing. The outturn figures for last week showed that the economy grew faster than expected in the three months to February. When the data for January came out, the noble Lord asked me a topical Question, which I answered. That data was upgraded this week for that exact month, but he did not mention that. He keeps talking about one month, but one month comes after another—they tend to add up. The outturn figures from before the conflict began showed that the economy was growing faster than anyone expected. Of course this war will have an impact on our economy, and it is this Government’s responsibility to ensure that working people weather that in the right way.