Ukraine

Therefore, Russia must be held to account for its actions. International law must be upheld and infractions punished. Not only is the war in clear violation of the UN charter but Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor General has recorded more than 120,000 incidents of alleged war crimes, including murder, rape, torture and, as we have all recognised in this House, the shocking deportation of children.

Similarly, UN investigators and agencies are gathering evidence that shows that serious international crimes have been committed. Allegations of war crimes must be fully and fairly investigated by independent legal mechanisms. That is why, since the start of the war, the United Kingdom has provided £2 million in additional contributions to the International Criminal Court, to increase the court’s ability to collect evidence and support survivors. Indeed, Ukraine was one of the subjects that I and my noble friend Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, discussed when the ICC prosecutor visited the UK recently. Together with the EU and the US, we have also established an Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group to support Ukraine’s own domestic investigations and prosecutions.

Tragically, there continues to be mounting evidence of horrific acts of sexual violence and other crimes committed by Russian forces. I assure noble Lords that the United Kingdom has been working very closely with Ukrainian actors involved in tackling conflict-related sexual violence, including, importantly, with First Lady Zelenska. The First Lady herself has worked tirelessly to raise awareness of these issues. I commend her, as I am sure all noble Lords do, on her powerful advocacy for women and girls.

This is poignant for me, as I know it will be for my noble friend Lady Anelay, who is joining us for this debate. As the Prime Minister’s Special Representative on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict, I assure noble Lords that I will continue to work very closely with First Lady Zelenska and others to champion support for survivors and promote justice and accountability. A member of the UK’s team of experts on preventing sexual violence in conflict is also directly supporting the Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General. This will help develop its conflict-related sexual violence strategy, produce an action plan and determine standard operating procedures in line with international best practice.

I now turn to the war itself. Mr Putin is now two years into a war he thought he could win in days. The longer it goes on, the more Russia suffers. The Ukrainian counter-offensive is inflicting serious pressure on Russia’s own military. Ukraine has retaken over half the land seized by Russia since the war began, including Snake Island, Kharkiv and Kherson. Ukraine has demolished over 50% of Russia’s pre-war land combat power. In October, it destroyed 20% of Russia’s attack helicopters in a single night. Over 300,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured.

Ukraine has also successfully pushed back much of the Russian Black Sea fleet from Crimea, destroying 15% of the Russian fleet’s vessels. On the back of these successes, it has now established a maritime corridor to export its goods from Black Sea ports, which we all welcome. Since the corridor became operational, I can report that 300 ships have exported 10 million tonnes of cargo through the corridor, including over 7 million tonnes of grain by the end of December. This remarkable success is crucial for global food security, the Ukrainian economy and for making Crimea a vulnerability rather than a strength for Russia and for Mr Putin.

We are at a historic moment. Ukraine has decided that its future is in Europe and EU leaders have agreed to open accession talks. Mr Putin’s war has prompted new countries to join NATO: first Finland, with Sweden to follow. Russia’s latest aerial bombardment has come at a vast cost, with limited military effect. Its missile stockpiles have been significantly depleted. Ukraine can now reliably shoot down its superweapon, the Kinzhal missile. Every Kinzhal costs $7 million, as much as 130 Russian teachers’ salaries. Mr Putin is now turning in desperation to other places, including North Korea, for missiles. He is being forced to pick less valuable targets, with less air defence and fewer air assets. On Monday last week, Ukraine downed a £250 million A-50 Russian spy plane. Only a few remain operational. With a few exceptions, power and utilities remain functional across Ukraine.

None of this would have been possible without the sustained pipeline of military aid that we and others have provided. Ukraine is proving that it is more than capable of defeating the Russian invasion, and this will continue so long as we continue to provide it with the tools it needs. The outcome of the war is down to our collective will. In total, the United Kingdom is now providing almost £12 billion of military, humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine. Together with our partners, our collective capability vastly outweighs that of Russia. As a simple fact, if you add up the countries on Ukraine’s side, we outmatch Russia’s GDP by about 25:1. Our collective defence spending is 15 times greater. We must make that economic difference count.

This is affordable. Our support so far makes up 0.45% of GDP for the UK, 0.66% for Europe and 0.3% for the US. That is a mere drop in the ocean when you consider how costly it has been for Russia. It is simply not sustainable, because it now spends as much as 40% of its total government spending on defence. That is 6% of its GDP—contributing to huge, spiralling inflation even as inflationary pressures in our economies continue to fall. That is why we will continue to remind international partners that supporting Ukraine now is far cheaper than facing the consequences of a Russian victory. Make no mistake, that would mean Cold War levels of European defence spending.

What we need to do is clear; I will outline our approach. First, we must ensure that Ukraine has the military supplies it needs to keep pushing the Russians back. In December, the UK announced 200 new air defence missiles, topping up Ukraine’s crucial air defence capability to protect its citizens.

Secondly, we must ensure that Ukraine wins the war if Mr Putin prolongs it. We will do this by committing to long-term support. We will increase our military aid to a total of £2.5 billion over the coming financial year. At the NATO summit last year, 30 countries promised to sign long-term pledges of security support; the United Kingdom was the first to deliver on this commitment on 12 January, when the Prime Minister signed our bilateral agreement on security assurances with President Zelensky in Kyiv.

We will build Ukraine’s future force, stepping up western industrial production and delivering the new capability coalitions. Last month, the UK launched a new maritime capability coalition, together with Norway, to ensure Ukraine’s future security in the Black Sea. We will also help sustain the Ukrainian economy: we will promote its maritime exports, help attract the private sector back and keep up the fiscal support.

We will squeeze Russia’s war machine. We are doing this by reducing persistent international dependence on its exports, including oil, gas and metals. Our sanctions are working; we had a discussion on this only yesterday in your Lordships’ House. The sanctions have deprived Russia of over $400 billion in potential war funding. We will keep tightening our sanctions, to stop it finding ways around them. We have sanctioned some evaders of the G7’s oil price cap and are planning more measures as well. We will come after the shadow vessels and their enablers. We would like to see Europe do more to reduce its dependence on Russian LNG. With our partners, we will starve Russia’s military industrial production of western-made components, such as computer numerical machine tools.

Thirdly, we will continue to lay the foundation for Ukraine’s long-term future. We are accelerating Ukraine’s move towards NATO. We are providing private sector-led growth, driving reform and unlocking obstacles to trade and investment. For example, on war insurance, the UK has given £20 million to the World Bank to extend risk insurance for inward investments into Ukraine.

Last week, the UK’s development finance institution, British International Investment, closed its first investment in Ukraine—$25 million, alongside funding from the International Finance Corporation. BII’s investment will help companies in Ukraine stay in business and access the credit they need to finance imports and exports on better terms. Many noble Lords were at the London Ukraine Recovery Conference last year, where we announced £250 million to de-risk investments in projects to support economic recovery.

We are also actively exploring options with partners to fund recovery through the seizure of Russian assets. I know every Member here today agrees, as do many people in our country, that there is a strong moral case for this. Russia’s Government should pay for the huge damage they have caused. G7 leaders have already agreed that sovereign assets should remain frozen until Russia compensates Ukraine.

I now turn to the military support we are providing to Ukraine. We have committed more than £7 billion of military support until now. That is among the biggest contributions by any single nation. Our pipeline of supplies of ammunition, air defence and artillery, in combination with supplies from our international partners, has been pivotal. As the first nation to provide lethal aid, we helped to galvanise the international response. We have been training members of Ukraine’s armed forces since before the invasion, providing battlefield skills that enable volunteer soldiers to defend their homeland against Russian aggression. Until now we have trained more than 34,000 Ukrainian personnel under Operation Interflex, and we have committed to train up to 10,000 more in the first half of 2024. In Kyiv, the Prime Minister announced an increased military funding package for Ukraine of £2.5 billion for the next financial year.

As well as this, the Prime Minister signed the UK-Ukraine agreement on security co-operation with President Zelensky. The UK is the first country to deliver on this promise. The agreement is the first step in developing an unshakeable 100-year partnership between the UK and Ukraine. It formalises a range of support that the UK will continue to provide, including intelligence sharing, cybersecurity, medical and military training and defence industrial co-operation. It also contains mutual commitments on reform. Significantly, it also commits to providing swift and sustained assistance to defend against a future Russian attack. It will signal to Russia and Mr Putin that we are in this for the long haul and that he cannot wait us out, and it reassures Ukraine of our long-term commitment to its security and its right to determine its own future as an independent nation.

Our military support is one element, but humanitarian and economic support matter equally. We are providing, as one of the largest bilateral donors to Ukraine, support in both these areas. Since the start of the invasion we have provided more than £4.7 billion in non-military support, including £357 million in lifesaving assistance to Ukraine and the region, which reached up to 10 million people in 2023. We are currently working to protect Ukrainians from the worst effects of the war through the winter. We have committed £34 million to the United Nations and charities to provide shelter and warm winter clothing. The Prime Minister announced an additional £18 million of aid funding during his visit. In addition, we have committed almost £140 million to rebuild Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. We are providing generators and hybrid solar units for hospitals, as well as funding for vital repairs following Russian attacks on infrastructure.

Turning briefly to diplomacy, the United Kingdom has, as many noble Lords have recognised and supported, consistently led and supported actions to condemn, isolate and hold Russia to account in multilateral organisations. This is an important part of maintaining pressure on the Russian Government. We took several steps in March 2022 in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion. On 2 March, the UN General Assembly voted comprehensively—141 yes votes—to condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and affirm the international community’s commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and, importantly, territorial integrity of Ukraine. Later in March, the UK pushed partners in the Council of Europe to suspend and then end Russia’s 26-year membership. In April 2022, Russia was suspended from the Human Rights Council following a powerful demonstration of unity in the UN General Assembly, where 93 states voted in favour. This was the strongest punitive action the UN membership has taken against a P5 member in its history. Later that year, in October, 143 countries adopted a resolution in the UN General Assembly condemning Russia’s sham referenda and illegal attempted annexation. Last year, on 24 February, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution that reiterated its demands that Russia withdraw immediately and unconditionally all its military forces; 141 member states voted in favour. These outcomes demonstrate the strength of international unity against Russia’s aggression.

We have been clear that the quickest route to peace is for Russia to stop this war now and withdraw from Ukraine. We are supporting Ukraine’s vigorous efforts to bring the international community together to discuss Ukraine’s principles for peace, most recently last week, via a meeting of more than 80 countries in Davos. We continue to urge Russia to stop its illegal war. I put on record once again my thanks and those of my noble friend and the Government to all noble Lords, not just those participating today, for the consistent and strong support we have had from all parties and from all parts of your Lordships’ House. Noble Lords have provided the strength that is needed for not just the Government and our nation but, importantly, for the people of Ukraine in understanding the strength of unity in the UK. The Prime Minister paid tribute to the bravery and determination of the people of Ukraine in his address to the Ukrainian Rada. As he said in Kyiv, in the end, history tells us that democracies that endure will always prevail.

I end with this promise and assurance, and I am sure I speak for every noble Lord: the United Kingdom will not walk away from our responsibilities to Ukraine. We will stand with Ukraine today. We will stand with Ukraine tomorrow. We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes. Slava Ukraini.

It appears welcome—again, we look for confirmation from the Government—that Hungary has withdrawn its objections to the EU package of aid to Ukraine. If so, that is welcome news. Perhaps the Minister can confirm that or otherwise. Of course, we look to the US and hope that in due course its aid package for Ukraine will be agreed.

Much as we can rightly be proud of the military support that we have given and are giving to Ukraine, there is no doubt that this war and other threats across the world have acted as a wake-up call to us all in respect of defence. We have long expressed concerns about the reduction in the size of the Army, leading to the calls from General Sanders, which, however right or wrong, ask very important questions. Other questions remain regarding the numbers of planes and ships, including the use or non-use of our carriers; indeed, the head of the US Navy has talked about that in the last 24 hours. We will need to have a debate and discussion about the correct configuration of our Armed Forces.

Ukraine’s most pressing need, alongside personnel, has been the provision of equipment and ammunition. It has been a real struggle to provide sufficient quantities of military hardware while ensuring that we have sufficient in other spheres of activity for our own forces. The Minister may wish to say more about what, if any, rethink is going on regarding our own industrial base and capacity, as the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, mentioned.

What of the future? Will Ukraine receive all that it needs from us, the US, NATO and others? Importantly, will it receive all the weapons that it asks for? What is our policy on requests for military equipment coming from Ukraine? Speed of delivery and quantity of resource are everything.

There are others here who are much more expert in discussing the military situation, the equipment that is needed or the tactics that should be used. The Minister may wish to elaborate further, as far as he can, on his assessment of the current military situation on the ground and the expectation of any new Russian offensive. What is the latest regarding the Black Sea, where even open-source material, as the Minister mentioned, suggests that we are making some welcome progress?

In debates such as this, it is important for us to continue to make the case loudly and clearly for supporting Ukraine. The British public have done an amazing job in standing with Ukraine until now, and we need to continue to argue the case. It may be that there is virtual unanimity in this Parliament, but we need to make the case continuously to the British public and beyond for why we will and should continue to spend huge sums of money to support Ukraine.

Only last year, as the Minister mentioned, Ukraine stopped Russia from defeating it militarily, installing a puppet Government and bringing Ukraine back into the Russian fold. Since that time, we have supported Ukraine in maintaining its freedom. Putin expected NATO to divide. Instead, in overall terms NATO is stronger, with Ukraine far closer to NATO than to Russia. Perhaps the Minister can update us on the welcome joining of Finland to NATO. As I understand it, the Turkish parliament recently passed a motion allowing Sweden to join. Perhaps there is a timeline for that on which the Minister could update the House.

Let us be clear, as we make the case for our ongoing involvement, that there is no confusion between right and wrong in this conflict. This Parliament, the British public and our friends and allies choose international law, human rights and democratic values over the autocracy personified by Russia’s aggression. We should recognise that preventing a Russian victory in Ukraine will diminish the threat from Russia. Our eastern European allies, particularly in the Baltic states, feel very vulnerable. Ukraine, by its war against Russia and achieving what it is, is preventing further aggression and instability. A Russia staying within its borders is in all our interests. A strong Ukraine will be a strong NATO ally, deter future Russian aggression and keep the peace. Have we not learned the lesson of history that appeasement does not work?

We need to continue to support Ukraine as the outcome will affect our security beyond Europe, in Asia and across the world. Imagine the reaction of China on seeing the US, the UK, NATO and their global supporters fail in Ukraine. Would China not feel emboldened, rather than considering the consequences for itself on seeing a strong West determined to see a conflict through to a successful conclusion?

This is also about the preservation of an international rules-based order. Russia flagrantly broke those rules when it invaded Ukraine. What does it say for us, not only here in Europe but beyond, if international treaties, agreements or rules are to be ignored because they do not suit the ambitions of a particular country?

There is a competition or contest between those who support democracy and the autocracy of others. In Ukraine a democracy is under threat, supported by autocracies such as Iran, China and North Korea. We can see tension in many parts of the world, which is why, as the Minister pointed out, we are taking action against the Iranian-backed Houthis, who are seeking to disrupt our right to free passage by their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Imagine how all these countries, with their supporters across Europe and the globe, would feel if the Ukrainians were not successful.

All this, although far away, could have profound effects on the security, safety and living of people in the UK, the rest of Europe and beyond. Instability and war could bring refugees and migrants, huge disruption to trade and energy shortages, as well as security threats.

The debate today gives us an opportunity to make this case. We are rightly focused in many ways on the crisis in the Middle East and the worries about escalation there. We are anxious about what the prospect of a Trump victory in the presidential election may or may not bring. But what I know, and what we should say, is that there is a need for the UK, as a senior member of NATO, a close ally and friend of the US, an important Five Eyes member and a member of the UN Security Council, to stand tall in the international community and say loudly and clearly that we will continue to work to ensure success for Ukraine.

We know that the defence of democracy and freedom is sometimes hard, but we have proved in the past that we do not take it for granted. However difficult, we will not take it for granted now for ourselves, for Ukraine or for others. The defence of democracy, freedom and human rights is our rallying cry, and that should ring out from this Chamber to those who stand against us. The war in Ukraine is of crucial importance to us all, and we should not shrink from making sure that that echoes loudly and clearly from this Chamber and is heard in Russia and beyond. Democracy, human rights and freedom are at stake, and that is what the debate today is about.

Putin has mostly avoided recruiting his front-line soldiers from the more powerful middle classes in Russia. He has recruited from the provinces, the migrant communities and the voiceless as well as, notoriously, recruiting prisoners through the Wagner organisation. There is fear in Russia of what the future might bring, especially for those who dare to speak out. They face an increasing number of laws that prevent any kind of public criticism of the war, so the majority of Russians, I am afraid, are doing what they have often done throughout history, which is to keep their heads down to avoid trouble.

Unlike in Russia, in Ukraine the lives of virtually every Ukrainian have been impacted by this war. Many of my male friends in Ukraine have served, and continue to serve, on the front line. Friends whom I used to work with in the parliament when they were political advisers are now in uniform and serving their country. Studies and careers are on hold as they fight to save their nation. Families are physically divided but united in their shared battle for the survival of Ukraine.

Some Ukrainian friends who initially left have now returned to Kyiv because, as they tell me, it is their home and they would prefer to stay there, whatever the risks. The psychological impact of air-raid sirens and sheltering in the Kyiv metro, night after night, is hard for us to comprehend. People have had to adapt and find new ways of surviving in the new normal that is life in Ukraine. As my friend Ostap Kryvdyk said to me the other day, the psychological impact of the war on the elderly has been particularly severe, as so much of what they have known for their whole lives has now been removed and they lack the desire to start again.

I have had the honour of getting to know many Ukrainians who have settled in this country through an extremely positive organisation called Canterbury for Ukraine. It has mobilised the local community to welcome Ukrainian refugees and assist them in adjusting to life in the UK. When the various schemes such as Homes for Ukraine were established, we obviously did not know how long this war would last. I have, however, been hearing from Ukrainians in Canterbury about some of the uncertainties that they now face. I heard of a lady who has been working as a cleaner in Canterbury since the beginning of the scheme. She is renting her own flat and her son is now at university, but she is now faced with uncertainty as to whether she will be able to stay and whether her son will be able to continue with his studies.

I appreciate that we do not have a Home Office Minister present today but it would be useful for those Ukrainians already in the UK, and making such an active and valuable contribution to our country, to have greater clarity about their right to remain, should they wish to do so. If the Minister feels unable to respond to that in his closing remarks, I would be grateful if he could write. Similarly for those children who are now well established in schools across the UK, what is our thinking about whether they can stay to finish their schooling? Will they have to go back to Ukraine at some point in the future when there is, as we hope, peace in their country?

In addition to the military support which we are giving, I hope that we will continue to assist Ukraine in other ways. The Minister laid some of these out in his remarks, but it is important that we continue to promote business and trade links. We should also help with PTSD and on mental health issues, as well as through leadership programmes for future generations of Ukrainians, such as through the John Smith Trust: I have to declare an interest as a trustee.

As we approach the second anniversary of this truly awful war and Putin continues with his ruthless strategy of hoping that the West gets tired, I hope we will remember that behind the statistics and military strategies that we will debate today are the lives of ordinary people in Ukraine whom we must continue to support. However difficult it becomes, we owe it to the brave Ukrainian people who just want the freedom to live their lives in peace and to build a free and independent Ukraine.

“Old enemies are reanimated. New foes are taking shape. Battle lines are being redrawn. The tanks are literally on Europe’s Ukrainian lawn … the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core. We stand at this crossroads—whether to surrender to a sea of troubles, or do everything we can to deter the danger”.

If that were not enough, the Foreign Secretary has said:

“The lights are absolutely flashing red … on the global dashboard”.

He also said:

“It is hard to think of a time when there has been so much danger, insecurity and instability in the world”.

I am with them but, given such a dire if accurate analysis of our situation, noble Lords might understand how much it jarred with me when the Defence Secretary also said that

“we have made the critical decision to set out our aspiration to reach 2.5% of GDP … on defence”.

Talk about an anticlimax.

Up to now, the UK has done well in its support for Ukraine. But if we are to prove Putin wrong about the West’s staying power, we must make the necessary sustained investment in defence capability and defence industrial capacity. With that in mind, it is worth remembering that the Iran-Iraq war—a brutal conflict that ended in stalemate—lasted for eight years. We cannot forecast the course of the war in Ukraine, but we should be thinking in these kinds of timescales. In that context, 2.5% of GDP is not nearly enough for defence, and we do not even have a commitment to reach that inadequate level—just an aspiration.

We are frequently told by the Government that they have delivered the largest increase in defence expenditure since the end of the Cold War. That may be, but it is only after imposing some of the largest cuts. As I have said before, you really cannot claim credit for helping someone to keep their head just above water when you pushed them into the river in the first place.

Another frequent argument is that how we spend the money matters much more than how much we have to spend. Nobody disagrees with the principle that money should be spent wisely, but try telling all the British citizens suffering from the recent significant rise in the cost of living that their problems are their own fault and that they would disappear if only they managed their money better. Improved efficiency can mitigate to some extent, but cannot eliminate, the damaging consequences of inadequate resources.

In his evidence to your Lordship’s International Relations and Defence Committee, the previous Defence Secretary admitted that the Armed Forces had been hollowed out over far too many years. He subsequently confirmed that defence needed more investment than the Government were prepared to commit.

This is not an issue just for the UK. If the outcome in Ukraine is as critical as the Government claim—rightly, in my view—the countries of western Europe simply cannot allow their safety and security to be subject to the vagaries of American politics. They need to increase defence expenditure significantly, expand defence industrial capacity and co-ordinate their efforts both to support Ukraine and to strengthen NATO more widely. As the Minister reminded us, together, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and all the other countries within NATO have more than enough economic and industrial muscle to overmatch Russia, even with the latter on a draconian war footing. What is required is the will to do it, and that is not yet evident. The UK should be offering a greater lead in this regard. We have to match our grand words with decisive and sustained actions, backed by the appropriate resources.

On Tuesday, we witnessed the introduction of the right reverend prelate the Bishop of Hereford. We have heard the words of a bishop’s introduction to the House many times, and perhaps we too often let them just roll over us. However, on that occasion I could not but reflect on the relevance and urgency of some of the phrases:

“considering the difficulty of the said affairs and the dangers impending … as you regard … the safety and defence of the said Kingdom … in nowise do you omit”.

The Government would do well to take this stricture to heart. As far as defence is concerned, there has been far too much omitting over recent years, and it has to stop.

While we are all united in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, the ever-growing financial cost of rebuilding Ukraine and the drain on public finances, let alone the human cost, will undoubtedly lead to a point when we will have to explore ways to stop this carnage. Speaking as a woman and a mother of two sons, and seeing the atrocities every day—towns being destroyed, women raped, children abducted and more and more killing—I ask how much longer this can go on. This is not appeasement but the realisation that war cannot continue indefinitely. Diplomacy will have to take the reins.

Some will say that any negotiation would be impossible, but we have done this before, when America and the Soviet Union came close to nuclear war in 1962, with the Cuban missile crisis. It had a sobering effect on Washington and Moscow, which led to the establishment of a hotline between the two capitals to defuse the crisis. The notion of relaxing tension then entered the foreign policy vocabulary; we called it détente in the West. It triggered a series of agreements and confidence-building measures banning nuclear proliferation, which lasted until 1979. The Helsinki accords, signed in 1975, provided a framework for European security. Could a similar diplomatic offensive help persuade Putin to come to some compromise?

An article in yesterday’s Foreign Affairs was about the prevailing myths and misconceptions that distort how America and Russia see each other, and how

“they get in the way of sound strategy and agile diplomacy”.

A RUSI analysis, published the day before, stated that even a “partial victory for Russia” would have catastrophic consequences not only for Ukraine but for the West and NATO. It stated that any peace treaty in which Ukraine could survive despite the loss of territory would be just another Minsk agreement, giving Putin the strategic pause necessary to prepare the next phase of aggression.

Given this stark scenario, can my noble friend the Minister assure the House that Europe could maintain defending Ukraine without the support of the United States? If there is a shred of doubt, should this narrow window of opportunity before the US election and the likelihood of a President Trump win be used for negotiation? Can he also tell the House whether there is any realistic possibility of ending this war other than through diplomacy?

I too look forward to the maiden speech of the noble Lord, Lord Camoys.

We sink far too easily and far too often into the lazy, dangerous narrative that, since last year’s overoptimistic autumn offensive stalled against the minefields and trenches of the Russian conscripts, somehow Ukraine cannot succeed. That is plainly wrong. In reality, Putin’s clear original objective of limiting NATO enlargement and European Union encroachment, of dividing Europe and breaking the transatlantic bonds, has been a miserable failure—not to mention his demented ambition of taking and subordinating Ukraine in three days.

Now, with no real Russian progress in taking territory beyond the minefields, and indeed losing half of what they originally took 700 days ago, and by failing even to occupy the land they had pretended and legislated to annex, it would appear that Putin can only wait it out until Donald Trump gets elected, who, he hopes, will do some grubby deal to end the war. Even that strategy, if that is what it can be called, is incorrect. Republican members of the United States Congress who were here last week with the Marshall fund were keen to articulate that such a strategy is flawed. When he was in office, and in spite of his rhetoric, President Trump sent missiles to Poland, increased funding to NATO and robustly increased the power of his own military. Therefore, it begins to look like yet another Kremlin miscalculation.

In my personal view—and I dealt with Putin in better times—there is a weakness inside the secretive enclave in the walls of the Moscow Kremlin. From the outside, we, and indeed the Russian people, cannot know how fragile is the morale in the circle around Putin. However, from the Prigozhin incident—here was a man invented by, organised by and used by Putin brutally exposing the truth of this disaster—we got a glimpse of the unseen tensions in the ruling elite. What we saw in Prigozhin’s march on Moscow was the revelation of a serious weakness, a chink in the armour of a gambling authoritarian.

By continuing to build our supplies to Kyiv, by maintaining western unity and by giving the strongest possible message of our continuing resolve, the man in the Kremlin may yet see that there is a way out for him from this Russian-made, Putin-made disaster.

I should declare my interest as a vice-chair of the All-Party Fire Safety and Rescue Group. We have been working with Fire Aid, which is run by fire service officers who have run a number of aid convoys to first responders in Ukraine. It has now run out of resources. Can the Minister say what plans there are to continue that work? There was a convoy last year from the RAF fire service and some training but, as this bombing continues in communities, while the public eye is mostly on the military front line there is a real need to help the Ukrainian people manage.

Kira Rudik was in the UK this time last week asking the Government to help recover money now from the frozen funds of sanctioned people. It is good to hear that the Government are actively seeking this, so can the Minister expand slightly on what he said earlier? Is there any timescale for when Ukraine might get a response? It needs funding for the continuing war but it must also start to plan and fund rebuilding for afterwards.

I end on the Baltic states, Poland and other countries that neighbour Russia. I was in Vilnius a couple of months ago, where I noticed that Mayor Šimašius, the former liberal Mayor of Vilnius, had flashing up on the front of every bus “I love Ukraine”, alternating with its destination—a permanent reminder to the citizens of Vilnius how close they are to Putin and his front line. He also put on the city’s tallest skyscraper the phrase: “Putin, The Hague is waiting for you”. He is right. We have to constantly remind Putin that he will be held accountable not just for the invasion but for his threats to nations in addition to Ukraine. It is really important that we in this country do everything we can to stop Putin, end the war in Ukraine and stop the pressure on other European countries.

I have also been actively engaged in nature conservation for 30 years—I am chair of the UK Trust for Nature Conservation in Nepal—as well as tourism and film. I have been diversifying my family’s tourism business at Stonor in Oxfordshire, which my late father did so much to make possible, and am currently setting up a new film studio in Marlow—but these are subjects for another day. Today, my focus is on Ukraine. Many noble Peers, some of whom are speaking today, have had a much more distinguished career in the foreign service than I had, so I speak with humility and some trepidation as I make the following observations. Some may be obvious, but the obvious merits repeating.

First, Putin’s invasion has changed the world we live in, and we have to accept the changes that have arisen from that. The period of hope after the fall of the Iron Curtain is over. The invasion caused a global systemic shock that ended a decade of low interest rates and low inflation. It threw globalisation into reverse. It has undermined global institutions, the foundation stones of the international order. Russia once again poses a dangerous long-term threat to the West. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that our begrudging acceptance of Putin’s annexation of Crimea was a miscalculation. We pulled our punches to avoid escalation. We did that before, in the 1930s, and it did not end well. We now have no alternative but to make Putin’s invasion in 2022 his own miscalculation. We cannot allow national borders to be changed by force. The impact not just here but elsewhere would be disastrous.

Secondly, we have to commit to support Ukraine for the long term. This will be another difficult year, and the next will probably be the same. Ukraine’s heroic defence at the start of the war, and the early support it received from the UK and other allies, stopped the wholesale capitulation that Putin expected. But the West was too slow to supply the heavy armament and long-range attack capability required. We might well be in a different situation if it had been supplied earlier. Our 10-year commitment to our bilateral security co-operation agreement with Ukraine will help ensure that Ukraine can plan and fight more than just from one year to the next. Helping Ukraine along the path to NATO and EU membership will make the West’s determination clear to Russia. We must keep this going.

The UK’s support needs to be a national effort. Our supply of long-range missiles has significantly changed the balance in Crimea, pushing back Russia’s Black Sea fleet. We really can make a difference, but to do so at scale and over a long duration will require a significant ramping up of our defence manufacturing capabilities and 24/7 shifts in our defence factories. I am delighted that we have increased defence spending, but we have to acknowledge that we are not prepared for the threat from Russia. During the Cold War, we could field four Army divisions at high readiness. Today, we can scarcely field one. We need to accept that we must invest much more in defence. Given that our debt is so high, difficult decisions have to be made on our spending priorities.

Most importantly, we have to maintain the West’s unity and resolve. The nurturing of that resolve must be our number one foreign policy objective. Putin believes he can break our resolve. He just needs to wait for us to find this all too painful. We would pay dearly if that were to happen. Ukraine cannot manage this on its own. Western support and perseverance must be non-negotiable. As others have said, it saddens me that we are worrying about maintaining American support for Ukraine; we must use all our diplomatic skills to keep America onside. Part of that probably involves Europe being prepared to pay more for our own defence.

Putin’s terrible war threatens not only Ukraine but the very values we cherish and our way of life. Defending those values carries a price. It will cost money. The question is very simple: are we prepared to see this through? I very much hope that the answer is yes. We must steel ourselves—or rue the day that we wavered.