UK-US Trade and Tariffs

Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility warned that tariffs such as these could knock up to 1% off GDP. This comes at a time when the UK is already in a per-capita recession and when market confidence is shaky. Our businesses, which should be driving economic recovery, are instead facing increasing headwinds caused by this Government’s decisions.

Instead of supporting businesses, this Government are placing additional burdens upon them. Business taxes have risen, business rates have more than doubled for many, the so-called family business death tax has been introduced, and flawed recycling charges are adding yet another layer of unnecessary cost and bureaucracy. With these challenges mounting, it is no surprise at all that business confidence remains at rock bottom.

Then there is the issue of energy costs, which we have just been discussing. A manufacturer in Birmingham, UK now faces energy bills four times higher than a competitor in Birmingham, Alabama. The Government should be addressing this cost disparity, which has a far greater impact than tariffs; instead, businesses are being left to struggle on their own.

Only last week, we debated the Second Reading of what I termed the unemployment Bill. Overseen by the Secretary of State, it looms large: the OBR has not even been able to quantify how damaging the Bill will be for the economy. We do not need more uncertainty, more costs or more bureaucracy imposed on businesses. I suppose the Government felt obliged to rush that Bill through in their first 100 days and are now panicking and trying to push the Bill through by secondary legislation. Well, I leave that to the Committees of this House to deliver their verdict on.

Labour will, no doubt, claim that these tariffs are beyond its control. But let us remember that the previous Government had already made significant progress towards a US-UK trade deal. When President Trump was last in office, negotiations had reached an advanced stage. However, when the Democrat Party and President Biden were elected, his Administration ended all free trade negotiations. The unfortunate reality is that we could not implement a US trade deal until we finally left the EU, which coincided with the end of President Trump’s first term.

Well, the ball is now in the Government’s court. What have they done? I would contend from these Benches that, instead of securing a deal, they have wasted months; instead of acting swiftly to engage with the US Administration, they delayed; instead of protecting British businesses, they have let them down.

Their failure means that British businesses will now lose out and British jobs will be put at risk. The burden of these tariffs will not be borne by Ministers sitting comfortably in Whitehall but by the small manufacturers, the steelworkers, the automotive engineers and the entrepreneurs who drive our economy forward.

There is another issue that the Government must address: retaliatory tariffs. The Government must recognise the harm that a retaliatory trade war would inflict on British businesses and consumers. Escalating this dispute will not help our exporters; it will only drive up costs, disrupt supply chains and make it even harder for British firms to compete globally.

Will the Minister give this House a clear, binding guarantee that Britain will not escalate the situation by imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods? The last thing businesses need is yet another wave of uncertainty. The Government must take the responsible path, de-escalate tensions, negotiate a fair outcome and avoid worsening an already dire situation. In her Statement, she referred to the fact that the Government are now launching a consultation period on the dangers of retaliatory action. Why on earth are we embarking on such an exercise? Can we please be brought up to date with the website that has been opened specially today? Indeed, the Statement warned us that more input would be published today. Can she please bring us up to date with what has happened?

May I mention the Windsor Framework? We have to consider the effect on Northern Ireland of what has happened today. Under that framework, there is a duty reimbursement scheme available to assist businesses affected by these tariffs. However, many businesses are still unaware of that support. The Government must do more than just acknowledge its existence. They have to take proactive steps to raise awareness for businesses in Northern Ireland and ensure that the scheme is as streamlined and accessible as possible for businesses trying to navigate these challenging conditions.

Finally, has the Minister read the comments made today by the chief executive of Make UK, the director-general of the BCC, the advisers at the IoD and many other trade bodies, who say what a black day this is for British business. What help can the Government give to lift the veil of uncertainty that they have created today by this Statement?

Furthermore, I sincerely believe that we have showed too much of our market offer to the United States, so it can see clearly the areas where we are willing to cede decision-making: closing tax avoidance for UK companies with profits over €20 billion that are not paying their fair share of tax within the United Kingdom; aligning our AI and data regulations to what the Trump Administration want rather than what this Parliament has legislated for; and reducing agricultural and food standards. Every other country with which we may seek an FTA now knows the areas where this Government are open to ceding ground. That, surely, is regrettable.

Two responses today require more scrutiny: one from the Government and one from the Conservatives. The Statement says that the wholly unjustified tariff rate “vindicates” the Government’s “pragmatic approach”, but we know that, as far as the Trump Administration are concerned, the United Kingdom is in the same category as El Salvador, Guatemala and Uruguay—none of which even flourished a cringeworthy letter from a King in the Oval Office. The worst element of the Trump Administration applying the 10% tariffs is that we are now in the same category as Russia, for goodness’ sake. How is it a vindication of our pragmatic approach if Trump sees trading with the United Kingdom as the same as trading with Russia?

The second argument we have heard today, including a bit that we got from the noble Lord, is that we may have fared better because we are out of the EU rather than in it—but that is only if we are starting from a higher base than what the reality is, with the biggest barriers that we have erected for our near trading neighbours. But the critical point is that the United Kingdom, for goods in particular but for services too, is one of the most interconnected trading economies in the world. Nearly 70% of our exports to the EU are intermediate input to the production of other goods and services, and the majority of UK goods manufactured in the UK are intermediate. Therefore, the majority of the goods that we make source parts and components from the EU, so we are impacted by the 20%. Will the Government’s assessment of the impact be not just a sectoral analysis but a full trade analysis, including all the impacts of what will be applied to our biggest trading market?

Even the former Conservative Trade Minister Greg Hands said today that, as a result of Brexit, we now have a more complex means by which we are steering a path in the US-EU trade war. It is even harder, because the more concessions we give to the United States, the further we move away from the TCA. What is the Government’s assessment of trying to triangulate between the EU and the US? We on these Benches believe that the response has to be deeper co-ordination with the European Union.

Before I close, an element that has not been mentioned today, which is particularly close to my heart, having co-chaired the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Trade out of Poverty for so long, is that this Parliament has debated long and hard about our relationship with developing economies, many of which are being hit very hard by the Trump Administration, and the response of this Government is to cut official development assistance and technical support for trade facilitation for developing economies. Our response is to be silent to the Trump Administration but to cut trade facilitation for emerging economies. This cannot be right for the United Kingdom as a free-trading nation.

As I close, my appeal to the Minister is that we need urgent full co-ordination with Canada and the European Union, not necessarily just on the potential corrective mechanisms that may well be necessary and we believe will be justified, but to ensure that there are fully co-ordinated anti-coercion measures. These are not trade measures being introduced by the Trump Administration; they are economic coercion measures, and it was a tragedy that the previous Government dropped the anti-coercion instrument that we could have continued as a result of Brexit. We need urgent clarification on that.

Finally, we need a European Union-UK-Canada co-ordinated response—I will call it Eureka. In response to the Trump Administration, we need a Eureka moment, not just a wait-and-see approach.

We reserve the right to take action if a deal is ultimately not secured. That is a key part of why we are today launching a request for input on the implications for British businesses of possible retaliatory action. This is a formal step, necessary for us to keep all options on the table, but also to form our understanding of how those key areas will be influenced. This exercise will also give businesses the chance to have their say and influence the design of any possible UK response. After all, we are acting on behalf of those UK businesses. I hear the call by the noble Lord, Lord Hunt, that the ball is now in our court. The Government’s preference is to resolve these tariffs through a mutually beneficial deal. They have also been clear that they will always stand up for that national interest. This is why that request for input is so important: to inform the Government’s preparation of their options.

We know that it is a concerning time for both businesses and consumers, but it is important to note that this Government have made plenty of decisions which will have a positive impact on the economy in the weeks and months ahead. We are putting more pounds in people’s pockets by freezing fuel duty; boosting the minimum wage by up to £1,400 a year; and protecting working people, with no rise in their national insurance, income tax or VAT. Living standards are growing at their fastest rate in two years and the Spring Statement showed that each person will be £500 better off by the end of the Parliament. The OBR has said that the economy will grow every year from 2026 and that our planning reforms will lead to a 0.2% increase of GDP, worth £6.8 billion.

The UK remains an open, outward-looking nation and one of the world’s leading advocates for free trade. We have also joined the CPTPP trading bloc, and we continue to pursue export-boosting trade deals with the Gulf Co-operation Council and industrial giants such as India. Our number one priority is growing the UK economy. A positive trading relationship with all our trading partners, including the US, the EU and all these others, will help us deliver that. I hear the call for a full trade analysis and understanding of when future export opportunities will be available to us.

As we think about the impact on the automotive industry, we think about our key industries in the UK. We have used our industrial strategy to strengthen the UK’s automotive competitiveness. The Budget committed over £2 billion of capital and R&D funding to 2030 for zero-emission vehicle manufacturing and its supply chains. This long-term commitment is a vote of confidence in our automotive industry, supporting investment in its transformation as we accelerate to zero-emission vehicles. There was also over £300 million announced in the Budget to drive uptake of electric vehicles.

Our industrial strategy will continue to be unreservedly pro-business, engaging on complex issues that are barriers to investment, such as energy prices and access to finance and skills—all through the lens of promoting investment. Getting the transition right and supporting the growth of the electric vehicle market in the UK could unlock a multibillion-pound industry and deliver high-paid jobs for decades to come.

How will this impact our neighbours? I am thinking about the Windsor Framework in particular, and the opportunities for businesses to protect themselves through the Windsor Framework duty reimbursement scheme that has been referred to. This scheme is there to support businesses, ensuring that they can use it to mitigate any costs that may come from possible tariffs. Businesses should be able to contact HMRC for any information about the scheme. It will of course be a formative part of the advice to businesses we are giving through the great.gov website.

I understand that working closely with businesses to make sure they have all the information they need is really important. The request for input has been opened and that information is already becoming available. It came online today, and we have already seen a significant number of requests and input coming through that process.

This Government were elected to bring security back to working people’s lives. Businesses and workers alike are looking to this Government to act in the national interest and navigate Britain through this period. We will continue to progress on securing a deal that secures our industries while keeping all our options on the table.