Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993

I inform the House that Mr Speaker has selected the amendment in the name of the hon. Member for Glasgow Central (Alison Thewliss).

I beg to move,

That this House approves, for the purposes of Section 5 of the European Communities (Amendment) Act 1993, HM Government’s assessment of the medium term economic and fiscal position as set out in the latest Budget document and the Office for Budget Responsibility’s most recent Economic and Fiscal Outlook and Fiscal Sustainability Report, which forms the basis of the United Kingdom’s Convergence Programme.

I hope, first of all, that this will be one of the last times that we talk about this subject. We do not want to be holding this debate on the convergence programme document any more. I look forward to the opportunity to move on to a period of future growth outside the European Union.

Madam Deputy Speaker, if you listened to some of the public discourse today—the teeth gnashing, the wailing, the portents of doom—you would not realise that in fact the British economy is doing rather well and that Britain is on the up. We have more people in work than ever before, the fastest wage rises in more than a decade and a record number of new start-ups. What is particularly interesting is that it is younger people in particular who are starting up those businesses. We have seen an 85% increase in the number of 18 to 24-year-olds setting up businesses in the last three years, so far from being a bunch of Starbucks-hating socialists, they are in fact more pro-low taxes and pro-enterprise than many older generations.

We are also seeing investment flooding into Britain. We have got more investment in technology than other European countries, and the latest growth forecasts show that the UK economy is set to grow faster than Germany’s or Japan’s. The public finances have been brought back under control after years of profligacy under Labour; debt is falling as a proportion of GDP; and we are reducing the deficit ahead of our plans. Why has this happened? Well, it has not happened by accident or because the Government say it should happen. It has happened because this country has a successful free enterprise economy, and the private sector has created millions of new jobs. The Government have created the conditions to enable this to happen and built the infrastructure to help those businesses to succeed. We have cut corporation tax and other taxes so that businesses are able to invest more in training and capital investment. We have made it easier for companies to take on staff through employment reforms. We have reformed our welfare system, introducing universal credit so that it always pays to work and to move up the jobs ladder.

I remember all the dire predictions of economic meltdown if the people voted to leave. What has happened to all those predictions? What does my right hon. Friend think would happen if we were to leave with no deal on Friday? Or perhaps I should ask the jobbing Prime Minister, my right hon. Friend the Member for West Dorset (Sir Oliver Letwin), because he appears to be in charge at the moment. Anyway, I am interested in the Minister’s opinion about all the dire predictions of gloom if we leave with no deal.

The UK economy is projected to grow under all circumstances. Our future is in the hands of individuals and businesses in this country. It is those people who determine whether we will be successful or whether we will fail. I have a huge amount of respect for the entrepreneurs in this country who are setting up new businesses, growing and investing. We have a very bright future ahead of us.

The reality is that the threat to British prosperity is not our precise relationship with the European Union, but the ideas of some in this Chamber who want to limit people’s opportunities, see public spending balloon and start increasing our national debt again by £1,000 billion. And what would happen then? Taxes would go up; people would be able to keep less of their own money; businesses would not have the funds they needed to invest in the future; and our economy would decline rather than grow. That is the real threat to British prosperity. Fundamentally, we have been successful and moved on from the post-crash era because we have backed the British people and British businesses to succeed. We have not gone out there and said that business is the enemy—something that should be fought against. We have said that business is a friend of success and aspiration, and we need to back it.

This year represents a big opportunity for Britain. First, 2019 is the year when we are leaving the European Union, but it is also the year of the spending review. As the Chancellor announced in the spring statement, we will be launching the spending review just before the summer and completing it in the autumn. That spending review will set the budgets for the next three years. For the first time since the financial crash we have choices, because there is now headroom in our budget. That headroom is thanks to the fact that there are more people in work than ever before, and they are contributing in taxes.

We now have choices we can make. First, we have the ability to cut taxes, which we will already be doing this April. People will see more money coming into their bank accounts from this April onwards thanks to the fact that this Government have decided to reduce taxes for those on the basic rate and for those on the higher rate. We are also able to invest in public services. Because we have taken these difficult decisions, we have allowed the economy to grow. We have an opportunity to modernise government to make it sleeker and better value for the people it serves.

On investing in public services, what is the right hon. Lady going to do to invest in local authorities so that they, in turn, can invest? Coventry is a good example. Coventry has encouraged small businesses, and we have the University of Warwick science park and so forth. What is she doing to encourage local authorities to invest in their public services, as she knows that for the past few years that has been very difficult for local authorities, to say the least?

I was very glad to visit a successful business in the hon. Gentleman’s constituency. I know that he is very committed to the development of business in his area. It is important that money spent is raised locally as far as possible. As a Government, we have rebalanced from central Government giving money to local government to more of that money being kept locally, whether through business rates retention or council tax. That is an important principle. However, we did recognise in the Budget that local authorities were under pressure. That is why we put in an extra £650 million, which can particularly be spent on adult social care and children’s social care where there is pressure. Of course, we will look at that balance in the spending review.

At the moment, we have a complicated landscape in the support offered to business. When there is a complicated landscape, it can sometimes be the big businesses that know how to work the system that end up getting the money. We need to move to a system where we have lower taxes and it is clearer and simpler to see where the support is. Of course, we are also investing in the infrastructure that helps business to succeed, whether it is local roads, fibre or rail. Ahead of the spending review, I am making visits around the country to hear from people on the ground to understand what the public’s priorities for public spending are. It can sometimes be easy in Whitehall to listen to the big lobby groups— the big organisations that have an operation here in Westminster—but I want to hear what people in Coventry and other places around the country think about what their priorities are. I have done a few of these sessions so far, and the topics that come up tend to be education, local roads, the NHS—for which we have already put in additional money—and police. We need very much to keep in mind what the public want to see our money spent on rather than just listening to the big organisations.

I am delighted to hear my right hon. Friend mention education. May I press her to consider the fact that in our rural areas the funding per pupil is still not as it should be by comparison with urban schools? We have a huge number of Victorian schools, such as that which I visited earlier in the week in Motcombe in my constituency, where the maintenance of the buildings costs far more. We are therefore looking, in the comprehensive spending review, for a long-term increase in new money to deliver the first-class education to grow the entrepreneurs who will return the investment that we put into their education while they were at school.

My hon. Friend makes a very good point about education funding and how important young people having a good education is to the future of the economy. In this year’s spending review, we are looking not just at how investment in physical infrastructure like bridges and roads improves our economy, but at human capital—where we need to put in extra money to make sure that children and young people leave school, university or an apprenticeship with the skills that will help them to get a good job and to live a successful and fruitful life. That is very important. In the past, Governments have been more interested in spending money on things that are sexy and new—the big new pieces of infrastructure—and maintenance has sometimes taken a back seat, but it is very important to make sure that all the existing assets we have, whether roads or schools, are fit for purpose. In the zero-based capital review, we are looking at the balance between maintenance and new infrastructure investment.

I thank the Chief Secretary for giving way. Has she had any discussions with the Children’s Minister, who is currently considering the very relevant issue of investment in nursery schools, which is an obvious case of human capital investment as it has a considerable benefit for society after only a few years?

I have had discussions with my hon. Friend the Children’s Minister. That is one reason why we put additional funding into children’s services at the Budget. Part of the human capital review is looking at where we invest in education. As a country, we currently put more money into the later stages of education. There are laudable reasons for that, but we put more money equivalently into universities than secondary schools. We are looking at how to ensure that all children are getting the best possible start of life. There is a lot of evidence that the earlier the investment, the better.

I mentioned the zero-based capital review, which will look at all capital infrastructure to ensure that we are getting the most bang for our buck. That is an opportunity in 2019 to look afresh at our future projects and where the greatest impact can be made. We are also looking at opportunities to reform the way we do things in government. Housing is a good example. At the moment, we spend £34 billion on housing through the housing benefit budget and things such as the housing infrastructure fund and Help to Buy. My question is: by liberalising planning and making it easier to build, can we reduce costs for people looking to get on the housing ladder and at the same time reduce costs for the Government? We should not always assume that it is just about spending more money. We also need to think about how we reform things to do them better, to reduce the cost for people for whom housing is a big item on their household budget and to reduce the cost for the Government.

In summary, 2019 is going to be a huge year for our country. The economy and the public finances are on the right trajectory, but we are not complacent at the Treasury. We are looking very carefully at how every single pound is spent. We want it to be spent as much as possible on ensuring that everybody has access to a good start in life, that our core public services are provided and that we help companies and enterprises continue to deliver the economic growth that they have over the past few years.

The Chief Secretary referred to the gnashing of teeth. The only gnashing of teeth going on in this country is by those people who cannot get access to a dentist because of her party’s health policy. She talked about the Tories being the party of business. She may well wish to have a word with the right hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson), who used an Anglo-Saxon phrase in relation to business—the second word was “off”, basically.

If education is so wonderful and marvellous and schools are in such a good state, how come headteachers marched on Downing Street and presented the largest petition about the condition of schools and education? The answer from the right hon. Lady is always more deregulation.

That is what the right hon. Lady said in relation to planning law. It is deregulation—that is what it comes down to. However she wants to dress it up, it is deregulation. Deregulation has got this country into so much trouble in a whole range of areas, including banking and housing. Let us not hear any more about how deregulation is going to solve all the problems of the world. It will not.

After that, I would like to thank the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and give credit where credit is due. In a speech given on 19 March, the Chief Secretary finally acknowledged that we will now

“throw off the constraints of the post-financial crash world”.

There it is: it is official. It was a financial crash world, not Labour’s crash. But better late than never—apology accepted.

We find ourselves in the absurd and surreal position of debating a motion to approve the Government’s programme of convergence with the EU at a time when the issue of Britain’s membership of the EU is about to bring down yet another Conservative Prime Minister, so the only convergence on the cards is the one between the Prime Minister and her P45. The theological obsession of the European Research Group, which is opposed to any convergence with reality in fact, has hamstrung the Brexit negotiations and left the majority over there—on the Government Benches—as spectators in an unfolding disaster of their own making.

Reflecting on the first time I spoke in the debate on the Government’s convergence programme with the EU, I recall it was just before the snap election in spring 2017. I am sure we all remember that. At the time, prominent newspapers ran headlines such as “Blue Murder” in the sure and certain belief that the Conservatives would wipe out the Labour party, or “Steel of the New Iron Lady”, comparing the Prime Minister to Margaret Thatcher.

We’re still in government.

The hon. Gentleman says that they are still in government, but that is a complete and utter fantasy, and even his honourable colleagues all smiled and smirked at that particular one.

Those supine, oleaginous headlines in the newspapers are gone, along with the words that dare not speak their name, “Strong and stable”. Whatever happened to that? Just two years later, those same newspapers now call for the Prime Minister to resign, stating, “Time’s up, Theresa”. This sea change among the Tories’ biggest supporters in the press sums up the failures of this Government.

While we are on the maritime theme, the Environment Secretary could not even use the limited imagination he has to think up another metaphor, and resorted to the hackneyed one:

“It’s not time to change the captain of the ship”.

What an imagination!

The Prime Minister’s red lines and her intransigence and insistence on a deal that has little or no support in the country or in this House have led us to this crisis. This weekend, we had the ludicrous spectacle—the ludicrous spectacle—of Cabinet Ministers jostling to brief the press about her imminent departure and her would-be likely successor, only to be followed by quick recants and unconvincing oaths of loyalty. It is almost Shakespearian.

The Government’s motion is based on the economic forecast provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Chancellor’s spring statement—what there was of it. I am sure all Members would agree that the work of Robert Chote and his staff at the OBR is indispensable in informing debate and offering an independent forecast of UK economy. [Interruption.] If the hon. Member for Solihull (Julian Knight) wants to intervene, he should feel free to do so, but perhaps he could stop muttering across the Chamber inane comments that nobody can hear and nobody understands, and I suspect he himself does not even understand what he is actually saying.

I would be happy to. It is a 1.2% increase in real terms.