That this House takes note of the Report from the European Affairs Committee Unfinished Business: Resetting the UK-EU relationship (1st Report, HL Paper 202).
My Lords, before the first debate gets under way, I want to highlight the four-minute advisory time for Back-Bench contributions. This is designed to ensure that the debate can finish within three hours, in line with the usual timings for Thursday debates and so that the House can rise at a reasonable time this evening. I therefore urge noble Lords to keep their remarks within four minutes to meet those aims.
My Lords, I am delighted to lead this debate on the report from the European Affairs Committee, which it was my privilege to chair until last month, when I handed the baton to the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup. I am glad to see such a distinguished group of people in the Chamber to debate this report, which shows how salient the issue is right now. I thank the Government for getting their response to us in a timely way, which enables us to hold the debate now in good time and at an important moment.
This was not an entirely straightforward report to produce. We thought it was essential that the House have an overall assessment of what used to be known as the reset, which is, after all, the Government’s flagship policy towards the EU. As the only committee of Parliament conducting systematic scrutiny of the Government’s European policy, we concluded that we were the right people to do it.
It was a long inquiry which covered a wide range of complex issues. We found it quite difficult to get our heads around exactly what the reset covered, since the Government did not produce a White Paper on their negotiating objectives. Initially, we had only the Labour Party manifesto to go on. We also found that we were aiming at a moving target, because in the course of our work, the range of the reset increased. A number of important areas were added at the May 2025 UK-EU summit.
Members of the committee held deep and very different convictions about what the reset should cover, and indeed on whether it was necessary at all. Although we strove to find a consensus, that proved elusive. We therefore took the unusual, although not unprecedented, step of voting on the committee’s report. As a chair, I would always prefer to have a reconciliation of differences, but if that is not possible without a meaningless fudge, I think it more useful to the House to have different views clearly set out. Members will have seen that in appendix 9 of the report there is an alternative summary and the outcome of the voting on it.
My Lords, I add my thanks to all the witnesses who contributed to this report, to the committee staff who worked so hard to bring it together and, not least, to the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, for his excellent chairmanship and clear and comprehensive introduction to the report. In the limited time available, I shall mainly confine myself to a few brief comments on one of the many important issues covered in the report: European security.
Before I do so, I want to register a quick point on the vexed matter of touring artists, on which others will no doubt wish to elaborate. A couple of weeks ago, I met with representatives of the European Parliament’s culture committee. They had just come from DCMS, where they had been told that the problems faced by our artists seeking to perform in Europe were not a priority issue for the UK. That is certainly not the view that Ministers have rightly expressed from the Dispatch Box. I suggest to the Government that we might do better in our negotiations with the EU if we sent rather more consistent messages.
I go back to the security and defence partnership. This was the area that seemed to hold most promise in the run-up to the UK-EU summit last May, since the threat looming over the European continent—not just over the EU—seemed to give us common cause despite any Brexit hangover on either side. In the event, it turned out to be the area of perhaps greatest disappointment.
Defence is, of course, not an EU competence, but neither is it strictly a national responsibility. Our necessarily corporate approach to defence in Europe is given substance through NATO, but even the alliance cannot address what is perhaps our most urgent military challenge today. This is not increasing the number of ships, soldiers or aircraft, important though those things are. The priority is to create an innovative, agile and rapidly scalable defence-industrial base across Europe. I am not just talking about traditional defence industries; we have seen in Ukraine how important the normally civilian-orientated sector can be in time of conflict. Without such an industrial hinterland, our Armed Forces will quickly become impotent in any sustained conflict through lack of the wherewithal to fight. Developing such capacity is where the EU can—and has started to—play a part. But it is about European defence, not EU defence. Frankly, the latter is a meaningless, not to say dangerous, concept.
My Lords, I also thank the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, for his measured, calm chairmanship of the European Affairs Committee, and I welcome his successor, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, whose military experience will, I am sure, be up to dealing with the lot of us.
I served in Brussels for six years, the only woman Britain ever sent as a commissioner. After being the first woman to take on the trade portfolio, I became the first High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, responsible, among many other things, for leading the Iran nuclear talks, Europe’s response to the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and up to 10 military and civilian missions. I also set up the European External Action Service.
In my short contribution to this debate, I want to focus on collaboration on law enforcement and intelligence gathering. The committee was fortunate to hear from witnesses from the Crown Prosecution Service, the National Crime Agency and the National Police Chiefs’ Council. We asked them about Part 3 of the TCA covering law enforcement and judicial co-operation in criminal matters. This gives the UK unprecedented access compared with any other third country, but of course falls short of the access we would gain as a member state. Our interest in the committee was in how effective this has been and where more could be done to increase that effectiveness.
Our witnesses told us that aspects of their work were more challenging and cumbersome than before, within a system that is process-heavy. There was limited opportunity to automate, meaning that a lot of manual processes had to be deployed. I want to be clear: they were not suggesting that the system was broken, nor that they were unable to achieve what they needed to do, but it took longer, required more bureaucracy, relied on 27 bilateral relationships rather than one overarching one and was just a little bit harder. Their analysis was summed up by them in one word, “clunky”—a very diplomatic way of saying that it is harder now than it used to be.
My Lords, it is a pleasure to speak after the noble Baroness, whose service in Brussels was so distinguished and whose experience of the Commission is so much more recent than mine. I believe that this report has the potential to transform British politics. If the reset is successful, it will set us on a path to creating a new relationship with the EU that marks a break with the past and reflects the realities of the present, a relationship that has a life of its own and is not a road to something else, a relationship that will evolve in response to the needs and interests of the two parties, not in accordance with some predetermined and underlying plan. As it progresses, so its ambitions can increase, and the sooner the better.
This is vital and in the national interest. On the one hand, in a threatening and uncertain world, our defence and security interests are intimately bound up with those of our EU neighbours. On the other, the EU, one of the world’s three great trading blocs and the one nearest to us, is by far our largest trading partner. Yet there are those in this country who are so obsessed with the Brexit battles that instead of looking for a new beginning, they present any change in the situation as a plot to subvert the result of the Brexit referendum. We must move on from that attitude.
As I said in a debate a few weeks ago, I believe the policy being pursued by the Government, on which this report makes a number of helpful suggestions, is on the right path—by which I mean the pursuit of agreements with the EU on a range of specific and often technical issues that create a balance of tangible benefits for both sides. If the two sides can do that successfully, it will create a habit of co-operation on the basis of which the new relationship can be built. This report is a constructive contribution to that end; I just hope that the EU will be able to respond in the same spirit. Its own agenda is so full, and its recent record of reaching the internal consensus required to carry forward difficult ventures is not encouraging. The question is: can it, as well as we, rise to the challenge of our times? Will it shake the hand that the Government are extending?
My Lords, I too congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts. It is a credit to his diplomatic chairing skills, as well as the excellent committee staff, that we were able in the end to produce this excellent and comprehensive report. The committee began its work on this inquiry a little over a year ago, when President Trump had just started his second term. This week, we have marked the fourth anniversary of the devastating war in Ukraine. It is through the prism of those two events that we have to view the reset of our relations with the European Union.
June this year will see the 10th anniversary of the EU referendum. It is now quite hard to find anyone, on either side of the argument, who believes that the process and outcomes following Brexit have been positive—not least because of the strain it has put on the unity of this country, perhaps most of all in Northern Ireland. Resetting our relationship with the EU is not just a good thing to do; it is increasingly a necessity—for our economy, our trade and our security.
Last year’s summit in May was welcome but so far has been longer on rhetoric than tangible outcomes. A commitment to an SPS agreement is welcome and could do much to boost trade. However, it would be helpful to know from the Minister whether the Government expect substantial progress to be made on that agreement in time for this year’s EU-UK summit.
As the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, said, with an SPS agreement comes the issue of dynamic alignment. This raises important questions of parliamentary oversight and transparency and of how to feed into the EU’s policy development process at an earlier stage. It would be good to hear in the Minister’s closing remarks more details of the Government’s thinking in this regard. In particular, is it the intention to substantially increase the UK’s influencing capacity in Brussels? How, in practical terms, do the Government intend to ensure parliamentary oversight, particularly in the House of Commons, which no longer has a European affairs committee?
My Lords, I welcome the publication of this report, but the process in these negotiations is very uncertain and it remains to be seen whether the outcome will be in the best interests of the United Kingdom. The report suggests that the Government have made a good start but, for Northern Ireland, that assessment simply does not reflect reality, as the noble Baroness who has just spoken mentioned.
I am very much aware that the committee’s remit was not to discuss Northern Ireland, because there is a separate Northern Ireland Scrutiny Committee within your Lordships’ House which looks at that matter. However, in the context of this debate, it is important that we reflect the fact that we have the Windsor Framework/protocol, which impacts not just on Northern Ireland’s trade, politics and constitutional position but directly on the United Kingdom, because the Government have made it clear that they are preparing to align in order to avoid divergence with Northern Ireland in many respects. In our view, unless the Windsor Framework/protocol is fundamentally dealt with, there can be no genuine reset of relations with the UK.
Some might say, “Well, things are settled”, but as we were reminded by noble Lord, Lord Bew, earlier in Question Time, the situation in Northern Ireland is far from settled. When there comes a point when this issue of the Windsor Framework/protocol and our relationship with the EU remains unresolved and the Northern Ireland Assembly and other institutions are in peril, people in this House and in the other place will say, “How did we get to this place?”
The reality is that unless we deal with the issue of the Windsor Framework and its economic detriment for Northern Ireland, its constitutional detriment and the denial of democracy, we will inevitably reach that place. I think that at that point, this House will say that we need to take these matters much more seriously, because the Windsor Framework leaves large volumes of EU law in place over Northern Ireland. There is no democratic control. It preserves a customs border down the Irish Sea between one part of the United Kingdom and the other. It maintains a role for a foreign court in the internal trade of the United Kingdom and embeds regulatory divergence inside our own country, as the backstop proposals would have done as well. This is not normal or sustainable in any modern democracy and it is not compatible with equal citizenship within the United Kingdom.
My Lords, I am very glad that the title of the excellent report we are discussing refers to a “reset”. Indeed, there seems general agreement in all the documents, including the Government’s response, that it is a reset, which we can define very widely. It is certainly “unfinished business” and certainly raises issues, as the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, rightly said, of wider geopolitical significance.
Some of us have been at this issue for, in my case, over half a century, long before we actually joined the European Union, or European Community as it was then called—or was it the European Economic Community or Common Market? I cannot remember; there have been so many changes. It has dominated the lives of many of us in and out of politics and public affairs for well more than half a century, before the treaty of Rome. To try to add anything in four minutes is a bit of an insult to the wisdom of this report and to the proverbial skills of the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts. I suppose that, until we can change this extraordinary Lords procedure, which I think we should somehow try a bit harder to do, we are stuck with it.
What are the evolving changes? Obviously, everyone is pointing out that the whole show—the whole European Union—like everyone else, is in a new world context and operating under new pressures. It is very different from the body that we left when we left the customs union and Common Market arrangements some years ago.
The new factors include, first, security, as has already been pointed out in the excellent opening speeches, and the new problems of changing security. People talk about what will happen with Ukraine and whether we should do this, that or the other, but there is no outcome in Ukraine in prospect. Meanwhile, Russia is moving to a new situation and beginning to raise agitations and undertake more hybrid activities with the Baltic states, which are our friends. They have not been given nearly enough attention in our view of our partners in the sort of Europe that should lie ahead. It is going to come anyway; it is no use saying that we are just an applicant to rejoin certain aspects, as it were, without the cards. We have enormous cards. We belong with the middle nations that Mr Carney talked about the other day. We have immense pressures to mobilise, if we use them carefully. The Baltic states are our friends and Russia is busily working to disturb them—not by military invasion, but by all kinds of other activities—and cause additional problems, even though they may not see any more than we do to the Ukraine situation.
My Lords, I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, who has chaired the European Affairs Committee for the past three years. He skilfully led us to a consensus on most occasions, and all members of the committee are grateful to him.
The Government were elected on a manifesto to reset this country’s relationship with the European Union, and I very much support that objective. Departure from the EU has affected the lives of so many people who wish to trade with, travel to, or work or study in the EU. There is no doubt that it is in the national interest to improve our relations with the European Union. I commend the work of Nick Thomas-Symonds in the Cabinet Office, who has responsibility in the Government. He has twice come to the committee with Stephen Doughty in the Foreign Office, thus demonstrating close co-operation between the two departments on this matter.
I will comment, in the very brief time allowed, on just two elements of the negotiations. The first is the need to reach a new sanitary and phytosanitary agreement. For food producers—farmers and fishermen—and for food processors, this is important and urgent. Fresh, perishable food cannot wait for 48 hours while checks and paperwork are completed. Food processors of non-perishable products can be held up in customs for weeks. Importers in the EU will, very understandably, eventually prefer to buy from elsewhere in the EU or from countries that are not subject to the same regulations as we are. It is disappointing that even the Minister does not expect a new SPS agreement to be operational until the second half of 2027. I simply urge the Minister to do everything possible to hasten this agreement, which is so important to the food and drinks industries.
The second element is the youth experience scheme. For young people to travel for study or work experience is beneficial both for the individual and for this country. This works both ways. The fact that so many foreigners who have gone on to become leaders in business, politics, academia or the military have spent part of their education or youth in this country contributes enormously to the soft power of the United Kingdom. I therefore congratulate the Government on having as an important policy objective the reset and improvement of our relations with the EU. They have already achieved a considerable change in approach in Brussels and a willingness there to negotiate. I am sure that they will have much public support to pursue this policy with vigour and imagination.
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Given all those circumstances, I am very grateful to all the members of the committee who contributed through this long inquiry. We all owe a particular debt of gratitude to our committee staff: Jarek Wisniewski, Brigid Fowler, Tim Mitchell, Tabitha Brown and Luisa Jaime Nunez, assisted by our press adviser Louise Shewey. I also want to thank our national parliament representative Jack Sheldon and his assistant Maherban Lidher for the vital work they do in liaising between this House and European parliamentarians.
The Government are right to have dropped the misleading term “reset”. The UK-EU relationship will be a continual process of adjustment and adaptation. There is no end point. Even since we finished our report three months ago, there have been further significant developments, driven largely by the increasingly stark reality that we Europeans can simply no longer depend on the US as our ally.
I will not try to summarise the detail of the snapshot that we gave in our report as of last November. I want to focus on the issues that will arise in implementation of the various agreements now under negotiation, and then to range a bit more widely to consider where we go from here, especially in the light of the Prime Minister’s interesting Munich speech of 14 February.
Let me start with security and defence co-operation with the EU. This is, of course, the area where progress is most urgently needed in the face of Putin’s war in Ukraine, now entering its fifth year, and Trump’s total unpredictability. Our report welcomes the security and defence partnership which the Government concluded at the 2025 summit, but that is only an enabler. Closer consultations are useful, of course, but translating them into real improvements in military capability is much more difficult. That was all too obvious when the negotiations for the UK to participate in the €150 billion SAFE defence investment programme broke down in December. The sticking point, as noble Lords will remember, was a completely unreasonable EU demand for an entry fee running to several billion pounds. This was a remarkably short-sighted EU position, given the geopolitics, and one with which many member states were unhappy. Since then, there have been suggestions in the media that the Government plan to reopen discussions, with the aim of participating in SAFE on more reasonable terms. Can the Minister tell us whether that is the case?
Staying with our report, we also looked at the area of police and law enforcement co-operation. The key here is more automation and streamlining of data sharing between law enforcement communities. A specific example arises when the Government have to decide whether to participate in the updated version of the Prüm database, which will have facial image data as well as the existing database of fingerprints and DNA. That will be an important decision that I am sure Parliament will need to scrutinise carefully.
On the economic issues, most of our witnesses supported the Government’s manifesto commitment to negotiate agreements on sanitary and phytosanitary checks on food and animal products, and on the emissions trading system. Our witnesses were also clear that the electricity trading scheme proposals outlined in the trade and co-operation agreement simply would not work. They therefore supported the idea of exploring UK access to the EU single market for electricity trading. That is now under way, as is a negotiation.
Our report lays out the implications of agreements in these areas of UK access to the single market. In particular, they will require dynamic alignment with EU regulations as they change, subject to any exceptions that are carved out in the negotiations. This will raise important issues for Parliament. We are promised a Bill soon, which will be interesting. The SPS agreement is likely to involve a continuous process of alignment, much of it highly technical, with each change potentially having an impact on businesses across the UK. How will Parliament exercise any useful scrutiny of this constant drip of administrative change? I guess that, at the very least, the European Affairs Committee will need more staff to keep abreast of the constantly changing regulatory landscape.
Agreements with the EU will have other implications as well. In particular, the UK will have to make a financial contribution. In the case of SPS and ETS, the 2025 summit agreed that payments would go towards EU costs in running the schemes, which seems fair enough, but the Commission’s draft negotiating mandate on electricity market trading introduces the idea of “cohesion funding”—in other words, British payments to reduce disparities between EU regions. Norway makes such cohesion payments directly to projects in poorer regions. If the Minister could give us more detail on whether that would also be the UK’s approach to the inevitable demand for cohesion funding when we seek to apply for single market access in other sectors, that would be interesting.
Two aspects of the trade and co-operation agreement were set to expire in June 2026: the arrangements on fisheries, and on trade and investment in energy. The May summit agreed to roll over the existing access for EU fishermen to UK waters for 12 years, but agreed to extend the energy title only one year at a time. That fisheries deal was strongly criticised by many of our witnesses, particularly those from the fishing industry. The committee also had serious doubts about the process. Within one month of the deal being struck, it had been enacted by the Specialised Committee on Fisheries, with no opportunity for parliamentary scrutiny. I should add that the Scottish salmon industry was very pleased at the prospect of an SPS agreement, given its export-orientated business.
On the cultural front, our report welcomed the prospect of the UK associating with Erasmus+ from 2027. Agreement on that has now been reached, which is good news for young people across the UK and the EU. Negotiations are also under way for a youth experience scheme. Is the Minister confident that a deal can be struck on that in time for the next summit, planned for May?
I note that both schemes were EU, not UK, negotiating objectives. I welcome that progress is being made, but it is disappointing that there has been no progress, as far as I can tell, on the UK’s one priority in the cultural field—a deal to help touring artists. That enjoys widespread support in both Houses of Parliament and the European Parliament, given the discussions that we have had in the Parliamentary Partnership Assembly. I hope that the Minister can update us on how the Government are planning to break the logjam on touring artists.
In conclusion, I want to spend some time on the wider context for the future UK-EU relationship. My view as we went through this inquiry was that the Government’s level of ambition, even as extended at the May summit, was not nearly bold enough. Our witnesses were unanimous that, even if all the highly technical negotiations now under way were successful, the economic impact would be marginal, if positive. The Government predict a boost of around £9 billion in total by 2040, which is not much for a £3 trillion economy. The reality is, as Mark Carney put it so well in Davos, that we now live in a world where the great powers are using
“economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities”.
In that world, marginal benefits are nowhere near enough.
The Prime Minister, in his excellent Munich speech, seemed to agree. He saw closer UK-EU economic relations as part of the answer, setting the aim of “deeper economic integration” and moving
“closer to the single market in other sectors”.
If the Minister could give us any details on which sectors, that would be interesting. I welcome the aspiration to move closer to the single market, but the EU will need to respond to that. The failure of the SAFE negotiations and the restrictive rules now under discussion around its “made in Europe” initiative remind us that, for the EU institutions, the UK is still a third country. They are tending to apply their rules pretty inflexibly despite a mutual interest in working together.
The reality is that the hard strategic choices facing European nations, including Britain, will not be made in the UK-EU framework. Again, the Prime Minister recognised that in Munich. He talked of the need to step up work with like-minded allies on options for a collective approach to defence financing. He said:
“We must come together to integrate our capabilities on spending and procurement and build a joint European defence industry”.
He added that we should “turbocharge our defence production”. Again, any detail on that important new initiative would be interesting. It sounds as if the idea is to mobilise a wider group of European countries, going well beyond the EU, leap-frogging the stalemate over SAFE. There must be a question over whether there is room for two separate defence financing initiatives, but I welcome the willingness to think big in facing up to the new reality that we will have to take much more responsibility for our own security.
Trump is dismissive of international law and sees no value in allies. His treatment of Denmark over Greenland has broken all the bonds of trust which have kept NATO together for 75 years. New forms of co-operation among like-minded middle powers are therefore urgently needed to deal with a hostile Russia and an indifferent America. Such groupings tend to take shape under the pressure of great events and do not necessarily follow the blueprints set out in foreign ministries. It may be that this coalition of the willing, which has done such interesting work under UK-French leadership in supporting Ukraine, can grow into a load-bearing forum for wider strategic thinking outside NATO. For the moment, it is informal and unstructured, but it has a very interesting membership covering many European countries and Asian allies. I am sure that other noble Lords will have wisdom to bring to bear on this crucial subject.
Whatever the shape of the future, we need a turbocharging of our relationships with our closest neighbours in the EU, who share our values and interests. That will need more vision and more consistent political focus on both sides than we have had so far, but it is an objective that becomes more important every month, given the international situation that we face. I look forward to the debate and to the Minister’s comments. I beg to move.
It was therefore very disappointing to see UK companies excluded from full participation in the SAFE mechanism. This was a significant setback for the kind of integrated defence-industrial enterprise we shall need on this continent if we are to develop the strategic capabilities for which we are still overreliant on the United States and in which the UK should play a leading role. We must do better going forward. But if we are to do better and play a leading role, we must recognise that, in terms of defence, we are increasingly viewed as something of a paper tiger, even among our closest friends in the EU. We talk a good game but seem less and less able to play one. That is not exactly a leadership position.
In Munich recently, the Prime Minister said that European nations need to increase defence spending further and faster. Amen to that, but where is the UK action to match the rhetoric? We need to argue for a much more coherent approach to defence-industrial capability within Europe as a whole. But if we are to convince, we must at the very least put our money where our mouth is.
One of the greatest practical losses was access to SIS II, the information-sharing system among not only EU member states but Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein. This gives real-time information sharing from police databases. Until Brexit, it was used an estimated 600 million times a year by the UK. We can of course use Interpol red notices and information systems, but they are less efficient. We need to find ways to streamline and access information more easily and to share knowledge across the continent. Crime does not stop at borders, and criminals rely to an extent on the clunkiness and the gaps to pursue their activities. We were told that the real prize would be the signing of a multilateral agreement with EU member states that would enable alert sharing through the I-LEAP platform. While it would not restore information sharing in full, it would be much better.
We all know that the European arrest warrant was used after the attempted bombings after 7/7 claimed the lives of 52 people and injured more than 700. The suspect was taken in Rome and extradited to the UK using the European arrest warrant. The Minister at the time, Andy Burnham, told your Lordships’ committee in 2006 that this case
“very well illustrated the potential benefits … of the smooth functioning of this system”.
It is not and was not perfect, and other cases have not been as swiftly dealt with, but to quote the Lords report, it
“has a key role to play in the fight against terrorism and in bringing those accused of serious crime to justice”.
Our law enforcement witnesses have asked us to find ways to recognise the European arrest warrant as a valid request. As one of our witnesses said, give us
“the agility that organised crime exercises”.
We owe it to their professionalism and dedication to get this done, and soon.
In the past the UK played a pivotal role in driving EU enlargement, which we always regarded as a process for positive change. Clearly, our influence on these matters is now much diminished, but what is the Government’s position on a fast-track approach to Ukrainian membership of the EU? Might such an approach also be in the UK’s best interest?
We on these Benches favour the closest possible relations with our European partners. The Government should be congratulated on removing some of the toxicity of the years immediately following Brexit, but I now hope that they can begin to match the positive words with concrete actions and courage.
Businesses, as the Federation of Small Businesses’ report recently said, face massive bureaucracy and compliance costs. The Trader Support Service is already costing half a billion pounds of public money, just to help traders negotiate this labyrinthine process. We have to accept that this is not what sovereignty in a modern country looks like; it is what colonialism looks like. The principle of consent that lies at the heart of the Northern Ireland political settlement is being devastatingly eroded day by day. Legal changes imposed without that consent have altered Northern Ireland’s place within the UK internal market.
When we discuss the issues of the UK-EU relationship, we must not turn our eyes away from the fundamental problem that faces us in this United Kingdom, which is the democratic denial of consent to British citizens in this country in the 21st century. This needs to be continually highlighted because it is going to lead to real problems—not just for Northern Ireland but for this whole country.
Secondly, it has also been raised that defence and warfare have totally changed, requiring completely different politics from what we discussed 10 years ago. As many of us predicted 30 years ago, drones have transformed the system and nature of war, and the disposition of trenches and troops. The use of AI is coming along, which will transform it even further.
Thirdly, the whole of Europe, including the EU, is underwater on debt at a level and scale which has never been seen before in history. The euro is weakening. We must be very careful not to be involved in all this before we understand what is really happening.
Finally, we must get ahead with rebuilding the global governance which we set up in 1945 from the rubble of the Second World War. It is now out of date, out of time and in great trouble. It requires a new architecture to provide us with a shell of protection—the shield under which we can reform ourselves. Britain played a major part in 1945. I cannot see that major part being played in 2026.