That this House has considered pension investment in UK equities.
It is a pleasure to serve under your chairship, Mr Stringer. I think all hon. Members would agree that UK pension funds are hugely important, primarily to the millions of future pensioners, but also to the many scale-up businesses that are seeking additional investment and need extra capital for growth. They are also an important part of the UK’s capital markets more broadly.
The UK has the second largest pool of pension capital in the world, but only 4% of it is allocated to UK assets. UK defined contribution pension scheme assets are set to grow from around £500 billion in 2021 to £1 trillion by 2030, an increase of 100% over nine years, and that growth will accelerate faster beyond that date. The key issue I wish to focus on is how we are to regulate, manage and enable the future form of that pool of capital, and the appropriate oversight of regulators or Government—if any—of the way it is managed.
As I think all Members want, the Government have stressed the growth imperative and its prioritisation, but under-investment in the UK economy will be a significant dampener on growth. Over the past 25 years, allocation to UK equities by UK pension funds has fallen from more than 50% to 4.4%. Since the global financial crisis, the UK has under-invested, both in absolute terms and compared with our G7 peers. Our investment-to-GDP ratio is around 17% to 18%, compared with our peers’ 20% to 25%. That investment gap accounts for around £100 billion.
The Government have introduced meaningful reforms. The closure of defined benefit schemes has resulted in large amounts of capital being moved from equities to bonds. Although that was a rational response to match the profile of obligations of those schemes, it is questionable whether it is optimal for the wider economy. That eagerness to match payouts to known obligations of a defined population has perhaps encouraged a lack of ambition in investment in the wider economy.
What has happened progressively with DC scheme regulation is passive tracking rather than active investment. We have prioritised the minimisation of costs over returns. That has incentivised more and more funds to invest in cheap asset classes, almost alternating their investments, with fixed income, property and indexed funds being used. That is very frustrating, because over the past decade we reached consensus on auto-enrolment, and there was an emphasis on saying, “Oh, we mustn’t have any fat-cat fund managers taking too-big fees”. There was an anxiety about that, which drove an oversimplification of automated fund management. It allowed everyone to say, “The fees are very low”, but we did not have the right focus on performance and whether we were investing in the right things in the economy. It is obviously cheapest for a fund to go to passive, as it does not require active management and the skills that come with it.
There have been previous fundamental reforms, such as the removal of dividend tax credits. Before 1997, when a UK company paid a dividend, it was accompanied by a tax credit, and pension funds could reclaim that credit in cash from His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs. That meant that pension funds effectively received dividends gross of tax, boosting their investment returns. That reduced the effective yield on UK equities held by pension funds by around 20%, which was then the tax credit rate. There have been changes, with ISAs introduced in 1999 and self-invested personal pensions being widened in 2006, but this has removed the focus on UK investment.
My right hon. Friend makes an interesting point about the change from defined benefit to defined contribution and the impact of the taxation changes that brought that about. Would he care to comment on whether he sees that as part of an unwitting repricing of the return on risk, which has impacted not only on pension funds, but more widely? He said that pension fund investment in the market is down, but retail investment in the market overall is also down very significantly. It feels like the British people as a whole have lost their appetite for risk, and that might be because the return on risk is now too highly taxed.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, my right hon. Friend anticipates an argument that I am going to move on to about the wider culture of awareness of where investments are happening in our pensions, how important that is, and how we need to be cognisant of the gap that exists.
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for securing this debate. The right hon. Member for North West Hampshire (Kit Malthouse) referred to the impact on Britain, but there is an impact regionally as well. Many workers in Northern Ireland are enrolled in UK-wide pension schemes and equity systems, and their long-term financial security depends on those schemes being able to generate strong, sustainable returns. When the right hon. Gentleman presents his proposals and asks to the Minister, can he try to obtain an assurance that whenever legislation comes through, similar things will happen in Northern Ireland, including for my constituents, thereby giving us all the equality we should have in this system?
The hon. Gentleman makes a reasonable point. In a moment, I will speak about what needs to change and where we need to get to.
Returning to my argument, the Pension Schemes Bill, which will have its Report stage next week, has made some welcome progress—I have to acknowledge that to the Minister. It has received significant cross-party support in many areas. The consolidation of DC schemes to provide greater scale and move away from a fragmented system has long been a journey that most people would see as desirable, but we must think about the scale of capital that our growing companies need. I am concerned about how quickly some of those changes will take place. Having been in intense dialogue with the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority when I was in the Treasury, I know that these things do not happen quickly enough. I urge the Minister—though I know he does not need much urging—to be robust in ensuring accountability on the delivery of some of these things.
To advance our understanding of the shift away from equities and towards bonds, let me note that in 1997, UK pension funds held 73% of their portfolios in equities and 15% in bonds. Those figures now stand at 34% and 43% respectively. I have talked about the particular aversion to UK equities, with UK pension funds investing 4.4% of their funds in domestic equities, compared with an international average of 10.1%. However, at the same time, the UK provides pension tax advantages worth more than £48 billion. That is £48 billion of taxpayers’ money that is essentially there to enrich our contributions and lay down a marker for the future. At the moment, though, there is no expectation that any of that is invested in the UK—this relates to mandation, which I will discuss now.
Around half of DC funds are in global allocations. My concern is that outflows from UK equities will continue as that global allocation continues and relative growth is seen in other markets, such as the US. As other economies grow, the UK part of the pie will automatically shrink, which means less money going into UK firms from these sorts of investment funds. As that passive fund practice becomes more prevalent, businesses such as the ones in Northern Ireland mentioned by the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) are simply off the radar. They do not receive any analysis, and mid-cap and small-cap firms lose out, with pools of capital never being available to them. As such, that 4% investment in equities is likely to continue to fall.
Order. I remind hon. Members that they should bob if they wish to be called to speak. I intend to call the Lib Dem spokesman at 5.10 pm and three hon. Members wish to speak. They will have roughly six minutes each.
It is a great pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Stringer. I congratulate the right hon. Member for Salisbury (John Glen) on securing this debate.
In reality, equity investment from pensions is deteriorating because UK equities are not performing relative to their global counterparts. One of the reasons for that is that we have become over-regulated and over-taxed. When the big bang was launched 40 years ago, the City of London became the most important financial centre in the whole world. In the last 10 years, that has changed. That is why, at Bloomberg a couple of weeks ago, I announced the creation of four key working groups to look at a complete reset—a sort of big bang 2. We need to look again at the whole issue of regulation, and at the status of the FCA relative to the PRA and the Bank of England—that is working group No. 1. Working group No. 2 is on pensions and savings. We also need to consider big-picture issues: why, for example, are we giving tax relief on £300 billion of cash ISAs? How does that help the UK economy? Those are the big questions that we need to look at.
The third working group is on small and medium-sized enterprise growth capital. The right hon. Member for Salisbury asked why it is that on second, third and fourth-phase rounds of fundraising, companies are going elsewhere in the world. The truth is that our markets have become too difficult for raising that additional capital. The fourth working group that I have set up—and it will report in six to nine months’ time—is on taxation. We are over-taxed, and we enjoy the longest tax code in the world. At 24,000 pages, it is four times the combined works of “Harry Potter” and nothing like as much fun.
We need to look again at all those issues, and then we need to look at the performance of our pension funds. If we look at the performance of one of the biggest pension funds in the world, the local government pension schemes, which I have been very focused on, we will see that they are being overcharged substantially, by a factor of about five of what they should be paying, and they are underperforming. In the year to March ’25, the LGPS produced a great performance—not—of 3.3%, yet paid out over £2 billion in fees. Frankly, if the active funds cannot match the tracker, why not use a tracker? That is the challenge for the active industry.
It is a pleasure to serve under your chairship, Mr Stringer, and to keep the Minister company on the Government side. I congratulate the right hon. Member for Salisbury (John Glen) on securing this debate and on a highly compelling speech and argument.
The question of whether we can create the right incentive framework for domestic pension funds to invest more in the UK is a strong one—not only in UK equities but across all asset classes, including gilts and infrastructure. It goes to the heart of the Government’s growth mission. It is imperative for strengthening our national economy and for unlocking the regional potential of our economies, including in my own constituency of Buckingham and Bletchley, which lies in the engine room of the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor.
Backing British businesses of all types and sizes across the UK with British capital is fundamental to jobs, greater levels of innovation and, in the long run, higher household incomes. However, it is also important for our economic sovereignty. As hon. Members have explained, if we are unwilling to invest in our own economy, we risk increasing our reliance on international capital, which may not necessarily prioritise the UK’s long-term national interest. I welcome the work that the Minister has advanced through the Pension Schemes Bill. It is a good Bill. Creating larger pension funds that are able to invest at scale will deliver stronger returns for millions of savers, including those in my constituency.
The scale of the challenge with regard to domestic pension investment in our economy is stark. The right hon. Member for Salisbury was clear in setting out the data from the new financial think-tank. The right hon. Member for North West Hampshire (Kit Malthouse) and the hon. Member for Boston and Skegness (Richard Tice) explained the steady decline of domestic pension investment over the last two, three or four decades.
I thank the right hon. Member for Salisbury (John Glen) for securing this debate. We are colleagues on the Treasury Committee, and I always find his contributions extremely thoughtful. He has the best interests of the country at heart, so I thank him for securing this debate.
We probably all agree that the UK investment system is broken, and not because of a lack of capital. There is £2.2 trillion-worth of capital locked up in UK pensions, and I think the consensus is that it is just not targeted well from the perspective of UK growth. We have already heard some figures cited: less than 5% of the funds are being allocated to UK assets, down from the highs of 50% in the ’90s, and that compares poorly with a lot of our international peers. Of course, there is not one way to fix this problem. Other hon. Members have highlighted other structural issues to do with regulation, culture, tax and demand for capital—people often speak to me about the need to get the pipeline of investable projects up in the UK—but mobilising these pools better through pensions reform is surely part of the solution.
UK pensions put too much into low-performing bonds and far too much into global passive indices. The effect is that funds such as the MSCI are putting more into Apple than they are into the entire UK market—I think 4.9% is allocated to Apple and 3.4% in the UK. That leads to a vicious circle, which other hon. Members have alluded to. Time and again, the UK’s best are sold to US big tech: we have heard references to Apple buying some of our best semiconductor and fintech firms, and another example is Google purchasing DeepMind. There are other factors here, including how the London stock exchange operates and the troubles with initial public offerings, which we have spoken about. However, it is worth thinking about how the role of passive indices amplifies that effect. I worry that with the advent of artificial intelligence-driven algorithms in the financial sector, it may be amplified further.
It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Stringer. I congratulate the right hon. Member for Salisbury (John Glen) on obtaining the debate, which has been quite enlightening; his liberal views on the way forward for pensions are very welcome. The Liberal Democrats are keen to see investment in our British economy, and we are particularly exercised about the need for investment in social rented housing, our high streets and climate change. From my own patch, I reflect on the conversations I have had with our high-tech cluster in Torbay, which often faces challenges in getting investment and getting the right vehicles to support it.
Reflecting on key areas for us, one can understand the principles behind mandation, but there is also the law of unintended consequences, and we have grave concerns about it. A power of mandation might be seen as a reserve power. I am sure, or at least I hope, that all Ministers in power at the moment are reasonable people, but who knows what might happen in the future? Giving the power of mandation to a future Government who may not be run by reasonable people is a significant risk. One only has to look at the other side of the Atlantic and see who now dwells in the Oval Office to realise that some curious decisions have been made there. For many of us on this side of the Atlantic, if the power of mandation was given to similar people here, that would cause us grave concern.
I agree with the hon. Gentleman’s views about mandation, as the Minister knows, but would he care to comment on its impact on the appetite for risk? We have learned from my right hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen) that since the change in taxation, the general trend in pension funds has been for managers to de-risk and to go into passive funds. If they do so, no one can complain, they are not taking any risk, they do not have to outperform or underperform the market and they get what they want. If they can pass off yet more risk to the Government and effectively sit there and get paid to be told by the Government what to invest in, they will bite the Government’s hand off, will they not?
The right hon. Gentleman makes a powerful point. One can go back to the significant crash of 2008. I suggest, and I am sure many people would agree, that that has left a scarring on the system and a fear of risk. For many of us who know about the system, risk is a good thing, because it can result in growth. If we do not embrace risk, we will not embrace growth. One minimises growth by failing to go for those risks. I agree that mandation potentially allows people to shy away from risk.
As Liberal Democrats, we are really keen to make sure that there are vehicles for investment, whether in social rented housing, in cleaner energy, in our high streets or in our high-tech industries. However, such vehicles should be designed so that people become aware of them and can make a choice themselves, rather than being dictated to by the state.
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The big point I want to make is about what people think of their pension schemes. New Financial, a well-known and respected think-tank connected with the City, did a survey of 1,000 working adults in the UK with a pension. That survey graphically highlighted what a “low level” of understanding people have of their pensions and the
“disconnect between their expectations and the industry.”
It said:
“On average, people thought 41% of their pension was invested in UK companies or the UK stock market (out by a factor of five to 10 times)”,
and, staggeringly, that
“two-thirds of people said pensions should invest more in UK equities even if the returns might be lower than investing in other markets.”
There is clearly a gap in knowledge and understanding. I advocated against the Department for Education’s backstop; I did not make much progress when I was in Government, but I am glad that this Government have made progress on financial education in the Department for Education and that it has now become part of the curriculum. This is a key chapter that is needed in that textbook.
I am anxious that the answer should not be for the City and pension fund managers to say, “We know best, we have a fiduciary duty—don’t worry about it.” Auto-enrolment has helped provide them with enormous funds to invest, but the disconnect between public expectation and what they are doing with those funds must and should be addressed. The vast majority of consumers investing in DC schemes do not change from their default allocation, although they are of course able to do so. Those defaults require approval, so alongside a campaign to get people to understand what is happening with their pensions and where their money is being put, it is worth asking people to verify what proportion of their pension savings are being invested where. They have that discretion; if they do not exercise it, that investment will default to whatever the scheme is going to do, and the scheme will likely continue in a similar way.
The London Stock Exchange Group tells me that by 2030, overall investment in UK equities by DC pensions would increase by around £76 billion—potentially as much as £95 billion—if this option were used. That is not mandation; I think that would be overreach, but I am sympathetic to the disconnect that exists. We must find a way to open up a proper discussion and increase awareness of the gaps where money is currently not being invested. I recognise that the Government have maintained a reserve power to mandate, although I doubt they will ever use it. However, I believe that individuals should be more empowered to take decisions, and I think they would be more empowered as active members of a DC fund. At the moment, they are not exercising that right. Consumers do and must have a choice about how their pensions are invested, and proposals to amend how default funds are allocated do not, and should not, prevent people from choosing exactly how they want to invest their pension pots.
There are so many opportunities in this country, such as in life sciences—my right hon. Friend the Member for North West Hampshire (Kit Malthouse) has a great understanding of that sector. When we are looking for that scale-up capital, the lack of funds in the UK to provide options for series B and sometimes series C funding is manifest. I just feel that we are missing an opportunity. I will understand if we do not go for mandation—I am sympathetic to that decision—but we should do something in between.
I know we are on the eve of the Budget, and as the Minister said to me as we entered the Chamber, there is little opportunity for him to adjust anything. I do not know what changes will be made tomorrow to pensions. There is obviously a lot of speculation about a reduction in ISAs, but let us get that in perspective as well. Only about 7% of those who have ISAs use the £20,000 limit. I do not believe that if there is any sort of mandation of the use of equities, people will go out and invest in them overnight, because the vast majority of people who have an ISA are at a later stage of life, and their ISA is in cash, so they will not do that anyway.
Let us get it in perspective. Last year, around £750 billion was invested in ISAs: £461 billion in stocks; £289 billion in cash. Last year, the Pensions Policy Institute estimated that there is a total of £3 trillion in UK pension assets across annuities, DC funds and DB funds. That is where the pools of capital can be opened up for investment in the UK economy. We need a greater focus on the public markets, and a vibrant, active, engaged and informed investor base to change the way that we move forward.
I have a couple more points to make. It is salutary to reflect on what happened with Arm Holdings: a British success story founded and built in Cambridge. As we know, it is a producer of semiconductors and software originally listed in London. The company was taken private because it felt that the public markets in this country could not support it; there was not enough liquidity in the markets. Arm was subsequently re-listed in New York, and since being taken off the London Stock Exchange, its valuation has grown by £112 billion. Of that growth, only £825 million has gone to UK investors. Had it stayed listed in the UK, that number would have been £43 billion. That would have meant higher pension valuations for a lot of people in this country, and more revenue for the Treasury from capital gains. It exemplifies the problem that we have: the lack of active, open markets where investors take risk and adopt a profile similar to those seen in the US. The FCA is disempowered and discouraged from trying to offer consumer redress. Through better financial education, we could get people to engage with the significant obligation that they have to save for the future, to take decisions that are in the interests of the UK economy and to pump more money into UK companies.
In conclusion, I welcome many provisions in the Pension Schemes Bill. Poorly performing pensions need to be challenged. I welcome the consolidation and scale-up of the pots, which will take too long and should be encouraged to move forward swiftly. But I have an anxiety that in a legitimate effort to hold back from mandation, there is a gap in thinking about how we open up the public’s understanding and imagination regarding where they can invest. I urge the Minister to move forward with some tougher rules around how people verify the choices that they are making so that the powerful voices who run the pensions industry do not default to saying, “We know best; we have fiduciary duty, and we will do it better than you could dream of doing.” The evidence is that that is not what people want. A golden thread of careful and delicate interventions is needed so that we can transform public behaviour and outcomes for our pensions industry.
One of the reasons that the LGPS is underperforming is because too much of them are invested in unlisted funds, and now invested in what I would call quite woke funds, but that is a whole different issue. People cannot get out of those unlisted funds, which are at 20% to 40%, and those funds cannot be properly valued. The fees are much higher and they are not performing as well. Those are the key reasons why the performance is deteriorating. The 10, 20 and 30-year track records of the local government pension schemes are all at over 7% in the long term, but in the short term, they are rapidly deteriorating because of wrong investment decisions and overpaying fees, and because we have a market in the UK that is over-regulated and over-taxed. All of those things reduce the incentive to invest.
For many people, it is complicated, but fundamentally, if the active fund managers overcharge and underperform, we should not be surprised if investors end up going elsewhere, and that might mean overseas. We need to change the way we look at things, deregulate sensibly and reduce unnecessary taxation in order to improve the quantity of pensions invested in UK-listed equities.
Data that I would cite for international comparisons lies in the Capital Markets Industry Taskforce, of which I know the London Stock Exchange Group is a leading member, and which I cited on Second Reading of the Pension Schemes Bill, but it is worth repeating now. Canadian pension funds are hugely overweight in their own domestic economy relative to their share of the global markets by about two and a half times. The figure for France is a factor of nine; Italy 10; Australia 27; and South Korea is an astonishing 30 times overweight. By contrast, in the United Kingdom we are underweight by about 40%. That was the data from about a year ago. This is not a marginal trend; it identifies a structural weakness in our global competitiveness, our industrial capability and our long-term national economic resilience.
As has been said, it is not just about our pension funds. Since the pandemic, UK households have accumulated greater levels of cash savings—depending on the financial institution, that is £600 billion, £700 billion and so on. It is positive that UK households have bigger cash buffers, but having excess cash not only potentially damages the ability to grow long-term wealth and secure financial security in the long run, but it deprives the many innovative scale-ups that we have in the UK from the investment that they need to grow, create jobs and deliver tax receipts for the Exchequer.
If we want a stronger, more secure economy, we have to mobilise all sources of domestic capital—that includes pension funds, retail savings and also our public institutions like the British Business Bank—to meet what I think are three principal goals. The first is to strengthen the integrity and vitality of UK public equity markets—I do have an interest, having worked for the London Stock Exchange Group before I entered Parliament—which was rightly cited as a priority in the Government’s financial services growth and competitiveness strategy earlier this year.
Listed companies are already employing 4 million people across the UK. When domestic capital supports the domestic economy, firms can raise further growth capital, which we saw to its benefit during the pandemic. It can also create further jobs. A vibrant public market can also attract, in turn, a wider pool of investors, domestic or international, and create a virtuous cycle of demand, valuation and innovation.
Secondly, I have already referred to national economic resilience. When domestic firms depend primarily on foreign investors, as we have seen in the case of Arm—I was at LSEG at the time—they are more likely to list overseas and more likely to relocate there. Their leadership teams shift supply chains and take their tax receipts and intellectual property with it. We need to mobilise our own domestic capital, which secures our long-term economic sovereignty.
Thirdly, lastly, and perhaps most importantly, it is about ensuring that our exciting innovators, of which there are many in my own constituency, are able to thrive and reach their full potential here. They all require patient capital, which was outlined in the industrial strategy. If Britain wants to lead in those industries, we must mobilise all our pension savings to give our unicorns the opportunity to compete globally. I will stop there because I am very aware of my six minutes.
What we see is that the capital goes to the US tech giants, they buy the most innovative UK companies, that makes the UK market less attractive, and that means that UK pensions feel like they need to put more money into US companies—and the doom loop continues. I fear that unless we break the doom loop, we will see complete and utter dependence on a handful of US tech companies. All this happens while UK pension funds receive around £49 billion-worth of tax benefits, so the Government have every right to do something about this issue and act in the interests of our own country. More than that, as the right hon. Member for Salisbury noted, UK pension savers are demanding this. They expect more of their money to be put into British funds, even if it means declining returns.
I empathise with the reasons why the Government want to go down the route of reserve powers and mandation. There has been lots of talk of an industry backlash, but some funds I have spoken to say that they want much stronger guardrails in relation to any mandation. They worry about mandation being used as a substitute for the wider structural reforms that we have spoken about. They also worry about future—perhaps more interventionist—Governments, and they want a much stronger set of guardrails for mandation, if it is to come.
In place of mandation, there is a middle ground. The right hon. Member referred already to the enormous power of default settings, which we have seen with auto-enrolment. Behavioural science and behavioural economics tell us a lot more about how people actually respond; what works is not always rational self-interest and incentives. If we change the default options about UK equities and allow an opt-out, we will probably find that most people do not opt out. Research from New Financial states that a 25% allocation to the UK in these default funds could be worth up to £95 billion. That alone would be transformative, without the need for mandation.
At the moment, UK savers are losing out twice: not only because they are getting poorer returns over the long term, but because we are choking off investment in the areas where they choose to live and retire. We should keep both those things in mind.