OBR: Resignation of Chair

Commons Urgent Question

The following Answer to an Urgent Question was given in the House of Commons on Wednesday 3 December.

“Last week, the economic and fiscal outlook was accessed prematurely ahead of the Budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility took full responsibility for this and conducted a review into what had happened. That report was published on Monday, and I came to this House to make a Statement. The report found ‘systemic issues’, which led, in its words, to the

‘worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR’.

While I was making that Statement on Monday afternoon, Richard Hughes, the chair of the OBR, resigned. The Chancellor has written to Mr Hughes to thank him for his many years of public service, and I have put my thanks on the record in this House, too. That decision was a matter for Mr Hughes.

We will work closely with the OBR to ensure that robust security arrangements are in place before the spring forecast and for all future forecasts. The Permanent Secretary to the Treasury will conduct a review of the Treasury’s security processes to inform future fiscal events. As I said when I was again at this Dispatch Box closing the Budget debate yesterday, the Government put the utmost weight on Budget security, including the prevention of leaks of information. A leak inquiry is now under way with the full support of the Chancellor and the whole Treasury team.

There is also speculation in the press today surrounding the letter that the OBR sent to the Treasury Committee last Friday, which I wish to address clearly. The Chancellor was aware of that letter and was content for it to be published, and she agreed that with the Permanent Secretary”.

My Lords, more and more information is emerging about the unfortunate decisions that individuals took during those weeks of pre-Budget speculation. Inspired by leaks from No. 10 and No. 11, stocks were sold, money was taken out of pensions, jobs were destroyed in hospitality and elsewhere, and hard workers and entrepreneurs left the UK to avoid rumoured exit taxes. There is a case for either an open pre-Budget process or a traditional purdah arrangement. There is absolutely no case for setting the rules in one way and acting in another. Will the Minister take that message home to his ministerial colleagues?

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for her question and the points that she made. I should say very clearly that we take the Budget process extremely seriously and put the utmost weight on Budget secrecy. She will know that a leak inquiry is now under way, with the full support of the Chancellor and the whole Treasury team. She will also know that the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury will conduct a review of the Treasury’s security processes to inform future fiscal events. We will, of course, also work closely with the OBR to ensure that robust security arrangements are in place before the spring forecast and for all future forecasts. On the other points that the noble Baroness raises, she will be aware that the FCA has now written to the Treasury Select Committee confirming that it has not commenced an enforcement investigation.

My Lords, the Minister will be aware from things I have said previously that it would be worth taking a look at the Swedish approach and that of some other countries to an open Budget process that gets away from the kind of shenanigans that we saw in the past weeks. He did not answer me when I raised that before. Will he now commit to taking it back for the Treasury to look at and think about?

Focusing on the OBR, the more I look at this episode, the more I ask myself whether any digital-based data can be truly secure. It is almost like a cat-and-mouse game at the moment, with fists being put into dykes to try to stem leaks, but nothing is reliably effective, and AI will surely be a game-changer that aggravates this. Will the Government consider an open dialogue with the public, the media and, in the case of sensitive financial reports, the financial markets, to consider how we handle data in this changed world, so that we no longer have this environment of leaks and secrecy but find a better way forward?

I am grateful to the noble Baroness. She raised her suggestion about the Swedish model before. I think I said then that I do not think that we had any intention of taking that forward, and I say the same thing again today.

It is important to say that we remain absolutely committed to the independence of the OBR. That is incredibly important to the fiscal framework and to our commitment to economic stability. Clearly, it is important that the information it has is treated with the utmost secrecy. That is why it is important that, as I have said, we will work closely with the OBR to ensure that it has robust security arrangements in place for how it treats information.

On the next steps that we intend to take, the OBR has rightly conducted its initial investigation as quickly as possible, and we should now take the time, as I think I have said to the noble Baroness before, to consider its findings and the report in greater detail. The report into the OBR also made the point that it

“could not, in the time available, carry out deeper forensic examination”

of other recent economic and fiscal outlook events and recommended that such an event takes place. We have committed to doing that with the National Cyber Security Centre, as I think the noble Baroness alluded to, although it is important that we note that the report found no evidence of hostile cyber activity.

My Lords, this is a question asked in all innocence. It is now 15 years since the OBR was established. Some of us have lived through the period before the OBR and the period since. Does my noble friend know of any academic studies or the like that suggest that Budgets were better prepared, more efficiently kept secret where necessary and altogether held in higher esteem before the existence of the OBR compared with the period since, or is the reverse true?

I am not aware of any academic studies into what my noble friend asks about. I had the privilege of working in the Treasury for 10 years before the OBR came into existence, and I have now worked on two Budgets since the OBR came into existence. It is worth repeating that the Government are committed to the independence of the Office for Budget Responsibility. There is academic evidence that suggests that stability has a significant advantage in terms of the performance of the economy, economic growth et cetera. The OBR should and does remain at the heart of economic and fiscal policy-making, and the strength of that institution is a vital pillar in the Government’s commitment to economic stability.

My Lords, I have two brief points for the Minister. First, given the importance of the OBR, why is it so lightly resourced? Those of us who run businesses or organisations of 50 staff will know that IT and security systems will essentially be back office and unsophisticated, as indeed is the case with the OBR. What are the lessons going forward on resourcing the OBR?

Secondly, this leak appears to be a technical systemic error—a serious one, yes, and naive, certainly, but not deliberate. If that is a resignation matter for the chairman, what does this mean for personnel in the Treasury and No. 11 who have been involved in deliberate and extensive pre-Budget briefings and operations?

On the first question, the noble Lord is quite right to identify back-office systems as one of the issues identified by the report. He talks about systemic risk. We will look at wider questions of the systemic risk that this incident has uncovered, including the report’s conclusion that the OBR’s information security arrangements should have been regularly re-examined and assured by the management of the OBR.

His second question he expresses as fact. It is, of course, just an assertion. We take the Budget process very seriously and we put the utmost weight on Budget secrecy. As I have said, a leak inquiry is now under way with the full support of the Chancellor and the whole Treasury team. The Permanent Secretary to the Treasury will also conduct a review of the Treasury security processes to inform future fiscal events.

My Lords, the situation with the OBR is clear. What is not clear is what the OBR told the Chancellor in respect of income tax receipts before her briefing statement. Should it not be the case that all information supplied by the OBR to the Chancellor is revealed in retrospect after the Budget speech?

I am not sure whether the noble Lord is saying that is his view or whether he thinks it should be the case. The Chancellor was aware of the letter that the OBR sent to the Treasury Select Committee. She was content for it to be published, and she agreed this with the Permanent Secretary. We put the utmost weight on Budget security. The OBR has chosen to publish some further information. That is set out fully in Richard Hughes’s letter to the Treasury Committee. We believe it is important to maintain a private space between the Treasury and the OBR for the exchange of forecast information and Budget policy development, so we welcome the OBR’s statement that this is not intended to become usual practice.

My Lords, over the last few weeks and today, the Minister has studiously avoided confirming that Ministers and officials briefed possible announcements in the Budget prior to the Budget occurring. Does he really deny that this occurred?