NHS: Winter Preparedness

(Urgent Question): To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care if he will make a statement on winter preparedness in the NHS.

The NHS’s national medical director says:

“This unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario”.

This is backed up by the data. On any given day last week, an average of 2,500 patients were in hospital beds—a 55% increase on the week before, and almost double the number from 2023. One hundred and six flu patients are in intensive care, compared with 69 the previous week. There are 1,300 more staff off than in the week before, and the number of calls received by NHS 111 last week was 446,000—8% higher than at this time last year.

It is clear from both the NHS and UK Health Security Agency data that there is a real risk for the NHS and for patients, and it is at this moment of maximum danger that the British Medical Association has chosen to go ahead with Christmas strikes, when they will inflict the greatest level of damage on the NHS.

The BMA said this dispute was about pay, but we gave doctors a 28.9% pay rise. Then it said it was also about jobs, so I offered a deal to halve the competition for jobs to less than two applicants per post. It is now clear what these strikes are really about—the BMA’s fantasy demand for another 26% pay rise on top of the 28.9% doctors have already received. I also offered to extend the BMA strike mandate, so it could postpone this action and go ahead once flu has subsided. The fact that it also rejected that offer shows a shocking disregard for patient safety. Since this strike represents a different magnitude of risk from previous industrial action, I am appealing to ordinary resident doctors to ignore the BMA strike and go to work this week. Abandoning patients in their hour of greatest need goes against everything that a career in medicine is meant to be about.

The entire focus of my Department and the NHS team is now on getting the health service through the double whammy of flu and strikes. We have already vaccinated 17 million people, which is 170,000 more than last year, and 60,000 more NHS staff. We have invested in 500 new ambulances, 40 new same-day emergency care and urgent treatment centres, and 15 mental health crisis assessment centres. The NHS will also be recalling resident doctors to work in emergency situations, and we will not tolerate the dangerous attempts to block such requests that we have seen from the BMA in the past.

I am proud of the way that the NHS team has pulled together through strike action in the past, and I know they will move heaven and earth to keep patients as safe as they can this winter. I am just appalled that they are having to do so without the support of their colleagues in the BMA.

This winter, a serious flu wave and rising respiratory syncytial virus infections are pushing the NHS to its limits. Flu admissions, as we have heard, are up 55% in a week, and RSV cases are rising, especially in older people. However, the Government have failed to prepare, as we pointed out earlier in the year.

In July, the Health Secretary accepted Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation advice to expand the RSV vaccine to over-80s, but that expansion seems to have been quietly dropped. Flu vaccine uptake remains dangerously low, with fewer than 30% of some key groups vaccinated. Most worryingly, that includes NHS staff, who are going off sick because of flu, adding to staffing pressures. Delayed discharges are worsening: 19,000 more bed days have been lost this year. Still there is no winter discharge plan, no new funding and no clarity—and today, yes, resident doctors confirmed further strike action this week, which will add pressure to a system already under significant strain. That is why we would ban strike action, but at the same time this Government are literally making it easier for unions through their Employment Rights Bill.

When the NHS is under this level of pressure, families deserve the reassurance that care will be there when they need it, so I ask the Secretary of State: will he now publish the Government’s plan for managing winter pressures, including on delayed discharges and emergency care? Given that he is worried about a double whammy of rising flu cases and a strike, what extra resources is he providing, and if he is not, where is the money coming from? What action will he take to ensure RSV vaccine access for older people, and what will he do to raise flu vaccine uptake in vulnerable groups, particularly in NHS staff? Families are frightened, and some are already grieving. This crisis was not inevitable, but the Government’s failure to prepare has made it much worse.

I will ignore the political nonsense about banning strikes and clamping down on trade unions. I will, however, take on directly the charge that we have not prepared for this winter.

We have delivered over 17 million flu vaccinations this season—hundreds of thousands more than this time last year—and 60,000 more NHS staff than last year are also getting their jab. We are on track to deliver the 5 percentage points increase in flu vaccine uptake in healthcare workers, as set out in our urgent and emergency care plan. On children and young people, half a million two to three-year-olds have been vaccinated, which is the same as last year, and 3.6 million school-age children have been vaccinated, which is up 100,000 on last year. We will be going back to schools to do repeat visits in areas where uptake in schools has not been as high as we would like. For care home residents, flu vaccination uptake is 71%. We are on track to meet the RSV vaccination uptake target for 2025-26 in the published urgent and emergency care plan, so we are doing a lot on the vaccination front to prepare.

In fact, on winter planning more generally, we started earlier and did more than ever to prepare for this winter. We had stress-tested winter plans trust by trust. Local NHS leaders ran scenario-based exercises, including managing surges in demand and responding to virus outbreaks to test and strengthen their winter readiness plans, which are now being put into action. We have strengthened access by boosting GP access to keep people well and out of hospital. Through advertising campaigns, new online access routes and more GP practices open for longer hours over the Christmas period, we are making sure more people can be seen closer to home. That matters, because when people can get help early from their GP, they are less likely to end up in A&E.

We are also going further to improve our urgent and emergency care performance this winter. That is set out in our urgent and emergency care plan. We are investing almost £450 million into UEC this winter, meaning: 500 new ambulances on the roads; expanding same-day and urgent treatment centres; providing targeted support to the most challenged trusts; creating capacity and keeping flow moving by sharing weekly data with trusts; encouraging the use of alternative community services; and streamlining in-hospital discharge processes to get patients discharged more quickly from hospital when it is safe to do so, including joining up the NHS and social care, where relationships between health and social care have been improving year on year. If I think about where we are this year compared to last year, there has been sustained improvement. A lot done; more to do.

I would like to pay tribute to all the incredible staff at St George’s hospital in Tooting. I did my A&E shift with them this week, together in the trenches.

The Labour Government inherited an NHS that was bursting at the seams. With flu cases on the rise, the NHS feels as though it is working with one arm tied behind its back. Over half a million people this year were treated in corridors in A&E. That is unsafe and undignified. The all-party parliamentary group on emergency care, which I have the privilege of chairing, working very closely with the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, published a report outlining our recommendations to end so-called corridor care. I know this is a matter about which the Secretary of State cares deeply, so will he meet us to discuss the report’s recommendations to provide safe and more dignified care for patients and staff?

I echo my hon. Friend’s thanks to frontline NHS staff for what they are doing against a very challenging backdrop, which will be made all the more difficult this coming week. I also thank her personally for her ongoing frontline service, which she performs in addition to her duties in this House. I am always delighted to meet her and I would be very happy to discuss her report with her.

I call the Liberal Democrat spokesperson.

It is obvious already that this year is going to be very difficult for the NHS, with many A&E departments already overwhelmed, hospital wards full and too many patients looking at spending their Christmas on a corridor. Indeed, corridor care has been common throughout this year and even trusts that have seen improvement in other areas, such as Shrewsbury and Telford in my constituency, are struggling to make real progress in urgent and emergency care. In July this year, one in five people who arrived at an A&E in Shropshire had to wait more than 12 hours, and that was before the double whammy of a record winter flu epidemic and an irresponsible doctors’ strike.

Will the Prime Minister chair regular Cobra meetings to address this emergency? Will the Minister agree to make flu vaccines available to far more people and roll out an emergency vaccination scheme in communities to reach people who have been missed? Finally, will the Government support Liberal Democrat calls for a dedicated winter crisis unit, providing the locum doctors and social care support needed to discharge patients and free up hospital beds?

We are doing much of what the Liberal Democrat spokesperson asks; the hon. Lady is absolutely right that we need to focus on delayed discharge and demand management, and the system is doing all of those things. It is challenging in the NHS. The House will know of our determination to end corridor care. We have certainly ended the nomenclature of “temporary escalation spaces”, which makes corridor care sound like it is both normal and acceptable in the NHS, neither of which is true. I will stop short of asking the Prime Minister to chair Cobra meetings. That would not be the right mechanism or response, but of course he and I meet regularly to discuss winter pressures, and I will keep him apprised of the situation.

I thank the Secretary of State for his statement. Gloucester residents are rightly worried about the rising flu levels. I was struck down a few weeks ago and can attest to how tough the current strain is. Does he agree that in this context it is reckless of the BMA to be taking its members out on strike, and will he call for resident doctors in Gloucester to go to work next week to keep their patients safe?

It is one thing for the BMA to have rejected the offer we made; it is quite something else to have done that following a 28.9% pay rise—but we are where we are. The thing that I find utterly inexplicable and indefensible about the BMA’s position is that we offered it the chance to extend its strike mandate to the beginning of February, in order that strikes could be delayed into January, to give the NHS a clear run at an extremely difficult and challenging winter and the most challenging time of the year for the NHS. The only reason the BMA is choosing this week to strike is that it knows it will inflict maximum damage on the NHS, but in doing so it risks avoidable harm to patients. That is unconscionable, indefensible and unnecessary, and I ask ordinary members of the BMA, whatever their views on the offer or this Government, to bear that in mind when deciding whether or not to leave their patients this week.

Given the pressures from flu and strikes, can the Secretary of State confirm that the evidence he gave to the pay review body remains correct—that any pay rises must be funded from within his Department? If so, given that the Office for Budget Responsibility says that inflation next year will be 3.5% and he has offered 2.5% across the NHS, and said that a 1% increase would cost £1.5 billion, does he intend to give NHS staff a real-terms pay cut, or to take £1.5 billion from headline Government commitments?

It is as if the ghost of Christmas past has come to visit: one of my predecessors is here to remind the BMA of what it used to have to deal with. Perhaps the BMA will be a bit more content with the ghost of Christmas present—and that is before we are threatened by the ghost of Christmas future—[Laughter.] I am being slightly tongue in check, but the right hon. Gentleman asks a serious question, and I will treat it seriously.

We put in evidence to the pay review body process. The pay review body will make its recommendation, which we will consider. We are in active discussions with Agenda for Change unions about whether we can reach an agreement on future years, including exploration of the prospect of a multi-year offer. I have made the same approach to all health unions, including the BMA and resident doctors. The challenge with resident doctors is that their expectations are some way from affordability. They are asking for a 24% pay rise on top of the 28.9% they have already had. That is not acceptable. As the right hon. Gentleman’s question implies, I have a responsibility to the entire NHS workforce, particularly the Agenda for Change staff, who have not done as well as doctors. Addressing that is not only a practical issue for me, but a moral one.

First, I associate myself strongly with the Secretary of State’s comments about today’s regrettable decision by the BMA and its members.

In the light of the pressures of flu and RSV, does my right hon. Friend think it is time to ask the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation to look again at its recommendations on the ages at which the two vaccines are made available? Specifically on RSV in infants, does he think it is time to ask NHS England to look again at the decision to switch from an infant-based delivery model to a maternal-based delivery model on the ground of cost, without taking into account the lower infant RSV vaccination uptake now?

I thank my hon. Friend for his support and questions. We will indeed reflect on our performance after this winter, just as we did after last winter. He raised interesting points about the way in which we deliver vaccines. As for the questions about eligibility and timing, we rely on the expert advice of the JCVI, which will also look at the data on how this winter has panned out. We look forward to receiving its recommendations in due course.

The Secretary of State says that the strikes come at a time of maximum danger for the NHS and has called on the junior doctors to call off the strikes. I agree with him, but will he accept at least some responsibility for the second round of strikes on his watch? Last year he conceded a bumper pay deal to the same junior doctors with no strings attached. It is hardly surprising that they judge him a soft touch on pay and have come back for more this year.

Regardless of the result today, I think that the BMA is finding that I am not a soft touch and that we will not accede to a completely unreasonable and unaffordable demand. The reason we made that pay award within weeks of coming into government was that we did not think that the BMA’s treatment at the hands of our predecessors had been fair, and we recognised the issues that it was raising on pay. Indeed, the irony of this round of strikes, and previous rounds of strikes under this Government, is that I recognise that whether it is about pay, jobs or working conditions, resident doctors make a whole series of fair and reasonable points, and we are doing our best to address those.

I think that 28.9% is a meaningful step in the right direction on pay. Our offer of emergency legislation, which is unusual in this House, would make a real difference, reducing competition for jobs from 4:1 to less than 2:1—but the BMA has rejected that course of action. In the end, I think that people will judge the BMA’s actions to be unreasonable. Of course the issues that it raises are serious and substantial, but we see similar issues raised not just across the NHS but across the entire public sector.

We cannot fix everything for everyone everywhere all at once. Most reasonable people accept that; for reasons I cannot understand, the BMA does not.