Middle East: Economic Update

With permission, Mr Speaker, I will make a statement about the Government’s preparedness and economic response to the conflict in the middle east. Let me begin by paying tribute to our armed forces, and by expressing my concern and sympathy for the British citizens whose lives have been disrupted by the conflict so far. I understand the anxiety felt by families and businesses during these incredibly uncertain times. This conflict affects us all, and we must respond to it.

As I have demonstrated time and again, I will take the necessary decisions to help families with the cost of living and protect the public finances. I am clear-eyed about my response to the current situation. My economic approach will be both responsive to a changing world and responsible in the national interest. The economic impact of the situation in the middle east will depend of course on its severity and its duration. The movements we have already seen are likely to put upward pressure on inflation in the coming months, but I also want to confirm to the House that our financial markets are functioning and that I am in regular touch with the Governor of the Bank of England.

This afternoon, I spoke with G7 Finance Ministers, setting out my priorities for the international co-operation needed. First, we are calling for immediate de-escalation and a return to the diplomatic process. Secondly, we must guarantee the security of vessels passing through the strait of Hormuz. Thirdly, I stand ready to support a co-ordinated release of collective International Energy Agency oil reserves. Fourthly, the UK will play its part as the global hub of maritime insurance. I am meeting the chair of Lloyd’s of London later today, when we will discuss how best to support the continued passage of maritime trade.

I want to assure the country that the fundamentals of Britain’s economy are strong. Every step that I have taken since the election has built our national resilience: stability in the public finances; investment in infrastructure in both defence and energy security; and reform to our economy. Last week, I updated the House about our progress in delivering that plan. We have cut inflation so that it is now at 3%, a lower base than at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. I have prioritised economic growth to drive up living standards and I have stabilised the public finances. We have already reduced the deficit by £20 billion since last year, from 5.2% to 4.3% of GDP. We are due to reduce borrowing more over the rest of this Parliament, and by more than any other G7 economy, and I have increased our financial buffers, confirmed last week by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

I know that families and businesses will be concerned about the impact of this conflict on them, so I want to set out the action we have already taken and will take to protect them. I am prioritising energy security, investing in clean, home-grown energy. Our contracts for difference are already protecting consumers, ensuring that generators of low-carbon energy pay money back into the system when the wholesale prices are high, shielding bill payers from fossil fuel price shocks. I can confirm to the House that, in the coming days, we will publish the Government’s response to the Fingleton review of nuclear regulation to build nuclear power more quickly.

Our energy system is now more secure than it was at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In 2025, the UK imported 17% less gas than we did in 2021. While gas generation is estimated to have set the wholesale price of electricity in Britain around 90% of the time in the early 2020s, that has now fallen by around a third. As a result we are less reliant on and less exposed to volatile international energy prices than we were at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and that is welcome.

I recognise the role that North sea oil and gas will play in our economy for years to come. Last week, I met North sea industry leaders to discuss their role in jobs, investment and growth, and in energy supply. The energy profits levy currently remains in place and the electricity generator levy will also be activated if prices remain at high levels. I have set out the details of our successor regime to the energy profits levy, the oil and gas price mechanism, balancing providing certainty to business with fairly taxing windfall profits from energy companies.

I have also taken direct action on energy bills. Our supercharger discount on business electricity is increasing next month, cutting costs for around 500 of the most energy-intensive businesses by an additional £420 million per year. We are supporting the lowest-income families by investing £15 billion in our warm homes plan to improve the energy efficiency of people’s homes and reduce their bills, and, through the warm homes discount, taking £150 off bills for 6 million of the lowest-income households—a doubling of the number of people who will receive the warm home discount compared with the plans the previous Government had. That is in addition to the £117 drop in the price cap that Ofgem has confirmed from next month, thanks to the wider action on bills I took in the Budget.

I want to be clear to families at home that despite the movements we have seen in energy prices in the last few days, the price cap for domestic bills for April will not change, giving families immediate certainty on their bills until at least the end of June. However, I recognise that households who use heating oil face unique challenges, so I have asked the Financial Secretary to the Treasury to lead discussions with officials and rural and Northern Irish MPs to explore further action we can take. Those meetings will happen on Wednesday.

The current conflict only increases the importance of the action I took at the Budget to reduce energy bills. A rapid de-escalation in the middle east remains the best way to protect us from rising energy bills, but as the situation continues to unfold my priorities will continue to be helping families with the cost of living and protecting the public finances. I am also taking action to ensure that people pay the lowest possible price at the pump. In November, I extended the 5p per litre cut in fuel duty for a further five months and ensured that fuel duty will not increase in line with inflation this year. Petrol is more than 8p per litre cheaper today than it would have been under the plans we inherited at the election. That discount increases to 11p per litre next month once that extension takes effect.

The new cheap fuel finder that I confirmed at the Budget is currently being delivered, helping consumers find the cheapest price for their fuel. Almost 90% of petrol retailers have already registered for this and last week I instructed my officials to accelerate the integration of the cheaper fuel finder with map applications. This week, I am meeting petrol forecourt operators and I will not hesitate to call out retailers who fail to provide data to the fuel finder. I am clear that the best way to keep prices at the pump low is rapid de-escalation, and I will continue to monitor prices as the situation develops. I have also asked the Competition and Markets Authority to be vigilant across prices, including essentials such as road fuel and heating oil. Let me be absolutely clear: I will not tolerate any company exploiting the current crisis to make excess profits at consumers’ expense.

I am proud to be the Chancellor who is delivering the biggest uplift in defence spending since the end of the cold war. I am committed to giving our military the resources they need. That is why I can confirm today that I approved access for the Ministry of Defence to the special reserve to deploy additional capabilities in the middle east, meaning that no net additional costs of these operations will be funded by the MOD, but instead will be funded by the Treasury.

We do not yet know how long the conflict will last or what further action will be required, but it is my duty to be responsive in an uncertain world and responsible in the national interest to protect the public finances and help families with the cost of living. That is what the Prime Minister is doing and that is what I will continue to do. I commend this statement to the House.

I call the shadow Chancellor.

I thank the Chancellor for advance sight of her statement and add the Opposition’s firm support for our armed forces.

As the Chancellor has made clear, these are very serious and concerning times, and developments in the middle east are already having profound consequences for our economy. Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis. That alone is enough to have huge knock-on effects for households and businesses: families filling up their car will already have noticed petrol prices increasing, and fixed-price energy tariffs have either been increased or pulled from the market. We are already seeing British households worse off as a result of this conflict.

I am grateful to the Chancellor for updating the House on her meetings with other G7 Finance Ministers, and I welcome her commitment to supporting action to ease pressure on global supply by using strategic oil reserves. That, however, will go only so far.

As the Chancellor has said, the longer this conflict continues, the more likely it is that we will see a sustained period of higher prices. That, in turn, will have implications for interest rates and our cost of borrowing. The longer that lasts, the more likely it is that higher inflationary expectations will become anchored. If that happens, monetary policy will need to adjust accordingly, which may mean higher mortgages for homeowners who have only just begun to see some relief.

Gilt markets have already been responding to these events, which could mean that the forecasts we were given just last week from the Office for Budget Responsibility end up looking very different. We must continue to monitor developments closely.

Where the Opposition clearly differ from the right hon. Lady is in her approach to the economy in the run-up to this crisis, as her gross mismanagement has left us far more vulnerable than would otherwise have been the case. She refers to inflation, which was bang on target when we left office; thanks to her choices, though, it rose back up to almost 4% last year—the highest in the G7—and remains elevated, which is far from ideal given the threat of a significant further spike in energy prices. Extraordinarily, the Chancellor has just now reconfirmed that the Government will press ahead with a rise in fuel duty later this year.

I thank the shadow Chancellor for his questions. The Government believe that the best way that we can protect families and businesses from this conflict is through de-escalation. We heard nothing in the shadow Chancellor’s response about what the Conservatives’ view is on de-escalation. We believe that it is important that we get back to the negotiating table and do not escalate this conflict, but I am not sure that that is the view of the Conservatives.

We know that commitment to greater energy security can help guard against shocks. After inaction and delay from the Conservatives while they were in government for 14 years, this Labour Government are committed to investing in and building new nuclear. That is why we are backing Sizewell C and small modular reactors— neither of which were funded by the previous Government, but both of which were funded at the spending review, because this Government are backing Britain’s energy security. This Labour Government are backing the industries of the future, such as carbon capture and storage—not funded by the Conservatives, but funded in the spending review, because we back Britain’s energy security. Through the National Wealth Fund, we are investing in floating offshore wind and our docks—not funded by the Conservatives, but funded in the spending review, because we back Britain’s energy security.

In 14 years the Tories did nothing. They failed when we needed new nuclear. They stood by and allowed the loss of gas storage facilities at Rough. They failed to fix the broken planning system to enable us to build renewables, and they had an effective moratorium on onshore wind, which is the cheapest form of energy. We are taking a different approach in the interests of our economy and energy security.

On energy bills, I urge the shadow Chancellor not to scaremonger. The £150 cut to energy bills that I announced in the Budget will continue, as has been confirmed by Ofgem. We removed the failed energy company obligation scheme, and we removed a number of levies from bills. On heating oil, those conversations will happen this week, and we are working closely with MPs and colleagues in Northern Ireland to make sure that things are working well. The Minister for Energy at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero met the heating oil sector on Friday and spoke this morning to the Competition and Markets Authority. There is not currently a problem with supply, but if Members have individual issues around supply, they should make sure that they get in contact with DESNZ.

I call the Chair of the Treasury Committee.

My right hon. Friend is right to focus on the cost of living and de-escalation in the middle east. I am pleased to hear her confirm again that there is money for the Ministry of Defence and access to the special reserve to deploy additional capabilities to the middle east. Can she give us a figure or a range for how much money the Treasury is providing to the Ministry of Defence to deploy?

It would not be right to disclose that sort of information. As I said, we will provide all the support that is needed for our operations in the middle east.

I call the Liberal Democrat spokesperson.

I am grateful to the Chancellor for advance sight of her statement, but it does not include a single concrete announcement, and in itself will not provide the reassurance that householders and businesses are looking for as they hear reports that energy bills are about to escalate. Last week, the Liberal Democrats asked the Chancellor whether she would consider scrapping the planned 1p increase in fuel duty, due in September. Will she confirm that that option is still on the table and has not been ruled out?

Last autumn, we Liberal Democrats called for a new energy security bank to roll out low-interest loans to households and small and medium-sized enterprises. We welcomed the Government’s warm homes plan in January, but will the Chancellor confirm that it could be extended from five to 10 years and that it will have a greater emphasis on home insulation? Could small businesses’ investment in energy-saving measures be excluded from business rates calculations?

In the long term, we need energy market reform. I urge the Chancellor and her Government to intervene to stop these unpredictable fluctuations in the gas market. We need urgently to develop a plan to delink gas and electricity prices, and move expensive old renewable subsidies from the renewables obligation to the much better and cheaper contracts for difference model.

I am glad that the Chancellor has written to the Competition and Markets Authority about keeping an eye on petrol pump prices, but last autumn I wrote to the Secretary of State for Business and Trade and asked him to instruct the CMA to investigate bad practices in the energy market that affect hospitality businesses and small businesses. The Federation of Small Businesses and UKHospitality have also asked for that investigation but, six months on, it still has not happened. Will the Chancellor please confirm that she will speak to the Secretary of State for Business and Trade?

The hon. Lady talks about energy security, but she has never once acknowledged her party’s failure when they were in government. In 2010, her then party leader Nick Clegg justified opposing new nuclear energy on the grounds that it would take until 2022 to become operational. Well, 2022 has been and gone, but what is here is another example of Britain paying a high price today for the choices of the Opposition parties.

I turn to the hon. Lady’s specific questions. We announced at the Budget that we will take £150 off bills—that will come in in April and continue until June—by taking the failed energy company obligation levy, over which the last Government presided, off bills. People on heating oil also use electricity in their homes and will benefit from reductions in their energy bills from April. As I said, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury will meet relevant MPs this week.

The hon. Lady walked with her colleagues through the Lobby to oppose the Budget measures, which included freezing fuel duties, so it is a bit rich of her now to say that she wants us to cut fuel duty. On ensuring that homes are properly insulated, at the spending review last year I announced £15 billion for the warm homes plan, which is focused on lower-income families.

The hon. Lady is absolutely right that contracts for difference are crucial in weaning ourselves off imported oil and gas. We are in a better place because of the CfD auctions we have been holding and the energy infrastructure we have been building, and which we can build because of the Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025, which Opposition parties opposed.

Finally, as I said in my statement, the Competition and Markets Authority has an important role in ensuring that markets are functioning properly on heating oil, on petrol forecourts and for small businesses. We will ensure that it fulfils that role so that people are not overcharged for the energy they use.

I welcome the Chancellor’s commitment to giving us energy security by reducing our dependence on international fossil fuel markets and moving to clean energy instead. I also welcome what she said about her support for jobs and investment in the North sea, her commitment to protecting consumers through the warm home discount and the warm homes plan, and indeed the commitment she made in the Budget to take £117 off consumer bills.

My right hon. Friend rightly pointed out the dire record of Opposition parties on new nuclear—14 years in which they failed. Will she give a commitment that this Government will add to their already announced successes on Sizewell C and on small modular reactors, and give policy certainty to the industry through a fleet approach to both large-scale and small modular reactors?

I thank my hon. Friend for that question. We have already signed off commitments to both Sizewell C—a publicly funded nuclear power station—and small modular reactors, which we will build with Rolls-Royce in north Wales. The purpose of the Fingleton review is to ensure that we can build those quickly and cheaply, as—more than ever—the current situation demands.

When I was doing the Chancellor’s job, the Treasury rule of thumb was that a 20% increase in energy prices meant 1% more on inflation and 0.5% less on growth. The truth is that it is much too early to know whether the Chancellor will have to find £78 billion to help households with energy bills, as I had to do in 2022, but we do know that the world is much more dangerous and that there are big problems in our defence budget. I welcome the fact that the Government are now committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, but nearly two years on from when the previous Government made the same commitment, it is clear that that is not enough. Will she unblock the arguments between the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence and outline a timetable whereby defence spending increases to 3% of GDP and we are able to defend our interests in the middle east and our allies in Europe, as the whole House would wish?

The right hon. Gentleman’s point about it being too early to tell the impact is really important. Of course we will take the necessary actions to protect consumers and businesses, but the most important thing we can do at the moment is to de-escalate the conflict and work with Lloyd’s of London and countries around the world to get those vessels flowing through the strait of Hormuz. That is absolutely key for containing the rises in energy prices.

On defence spending, the Conservative manifesto committed to getting to 2.5% by the end of the Parliament. We are going to get to 2.6% by April next year, and we have made further commitments to 3% and then 3.5%. Obviously, we have a spending review coming up next year where these decisions will be taken in the round.