Middle East: Economic Update

Statement

The following Statement was made in the House of Commons on Tuesday 21 April.

“With permission, I will update the House on the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the continued action that the Government are taking to strengthen our economic and energy security in response to the conflict in the Middle East.

We did not start this war and we did not join this war, but since the war in the Middle East broke out, I have been clear-eyed about my duty: to be responsive to a changing world and responsible in the national interest. The best economic policy today is our diplomatic policy—negotiation, de-escalation and the permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week in Washington, I held talks with world Finance Ministers, including the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. I struck a joint agreement with 10 other major economies, calling for a swift and lasting negotiated resolution to the conflict and agreeing to avoid unnecessary trade restrictions in order to support energy and food security. We agreed to maintain maximum economic pressure to ensure that Russia cannot profit from this war. I was proud to announce the UK’s third tranche of the extraordinary revenue acceleration funding for Ukraine’s defences, as well as continuing to work with the US Administration to increase economic pressure on Iran.

The Prime Minister has also led global action, convening a summit of nations with the President of France to work together to support freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The UK will continue to play its part, including engagement with the insurance industry to support shipping when conditions allow.

We are continuing to plan for every eventuality, but we must deal with the economic costs that are already being felt. I reject the demands for a knee-jerk response to this crisis that would put household finances at risk through higher inflation and higher interest rates. Every choice that I make will be about keeping costs down for families and businesses. That is why I have extended the 5p cut to fuel duty twice since the election, saving the average motorist £90 a year compared with the plans that I inherited. It is why I have frozen prescription charges for two years in a row and frozen rail fares for the first time in 30 years. It is why I am taking £150 off energy bills, with additional help for those struggling with the cost of heating oil; and it is why I have expanded the British industrial competitiveness scheme to over 10,000 manufacturers, addressing long-term competitiveness and cutting electricity costs from this year.

During the last energy shock, the previous Government’s package of unfunded and untargeted support saw more than a third of direct energy bill support go to the wealthiest households. That meant higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher taxes. I will not repeat those mistakes. Last week, the IMF said that my plan is ‘the appropriate response’ to the conflict. I led a joint statement, with 10 other major economies, agreeing to co-ordinate our domestic responses, to ensure that they are responsive and responsible.

This Government have the right plan for our economy. At the spring forecast, we saw how the action that we have taken since the election has prepared Britain to better weather this conflict. Inflation was at 3% and set to fall to target—a lower base than at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, when inflation was high and rising. Borrowing was set to fall more over this Parliament than in any other G7 economy. We are set to reduce the deficit by £20 billion, from 5.2% to 4.3% of GDP this year. I increased our financial buffers, with headroom against the stability rule of £23.7 billion, so that we can weather shocks and keep borrowing costs down.

Last week, the IMF welcomed the UK’s ‘notable improvement’ in our public finances. I am clear that the best way we can build a stronger, more resilient economy is through economic growth. I welcome recent figures showing that the economy grew by 0.5% in the three months to February and upgraded growth for the three months to January to 0.3%. I also welcome this morning’s labour market figures for February, which show unemployment coming down and real wages continuing to rise, as they have in every month since I became Chancellor—adding to the evidence that the Government have the right economic plan to steer our economy through the uncertainty ahead.

However, as I have said, the war in Iran will come at a cost. Last week, the IMF published its updated forecasts for the global economy in response to the war. It reduced its expectations for GDP growth in the United Kingdom and increased its expectations for inflation. That builds on the IMF’s judgment that the UK is more exposed to energy price shocks than our counterparts—a problem that the previous Government failed to address in 14 years—and on its observation that, since the last energy crisis, the UK has had higher inflation than other countries. The aftermath of Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, and the previous Government’s untargeted and unfunded support package, contributed to a more persistent rise in inflation and interest rates than in other countries around the world.

The IMF’s forecasts are a stark reminder of why we must stick to our economic plan and go further and faster on delivering economic security. Since the election, we have invested in clean, homegrown energy, in renewables and in nuclear power. In 2025, we imported 17% less gas than in 2021, and gas generation now sets the wholesale price of electricity around a third less frequently than it did in the early 2020s, meaning that our energy system is now more secure and less exposed to volatile global energy prices.

Today we are going further, with a package of changes to reduce our reliance on imported oil and gas, boost the use of renewables, and smooth the impact of energy price shocks. First, oil and gas production from the North Sea is an important and valuable resource, and its workforce is a vital asset for our country. That is why we are harnessing our domestic supply by managing existing fields for their entire lifetimes, including by allowing tiebacks for those fields to ensure that they remain viable. Today, in advance of legislation, we are publishing further details on tiebacks, which I first announced in the Budget. External analysis has predicted that they could result in tens of millions more barrels of oil and gas being available for UK supply. Today’s announcement gives industry greater clarity to support investment in those projects and maximise supply from our existing sites to support our energy security.

Secondly, we are sweeping away the barriers to new renewables investment by accelerating vital grid infrastructure, reforming land access rules and extending permitted development rights, as well as making more public land available for renewable infrastructure, which could unlock up to 10 gigawatts of capacity, and helping households and businesses to switch to clean, cheaper renewable electricity through plug-in solar panels and better electric vehicle charging.

Thirdly, we are reforming our energy system. Currently, households and businesses pay more for their electricity when the gas price is high. The electricity generator levy already recoups some of the excess returns made by generators due to high gas prices. Today, I am announcing that I will extend the electricity generator levy beyond its scheduled conclusion in 2028, and, ahead of that, I will increase the rate of the levy from 45% to 55%. That will ensure that a larger proportion of any exceptional revenues from high gas prices are passed back to government, providing a vital revenue stream so that money is available for government to support businesses and families with the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East. Crucially, it will encourage older low-carbon electricity generators, which supply about a third of our power, to move from market pricing to fixed-price contracts for difference.

New proposals set out today by the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero will further weaken the link between high gas prices and the price paid for our electricity, and limit the spikes in energy prices in driving up inflation and costs for households and businesses.

The Government have the right economic plan—a plan that was right before this conflict in the Middle East started and is now essential to weather the impact of that conflict. The plan, backed by the IMF, will keep costs down for everyone and provide support for those who need it most. In a world that is more uncertain, it is a plan to build a Britain that is stronger and more secure. I commend this Statement to the House”.

My Lords, the International Monetary Fund, in its latest World Economic Outlook, has warned that the energy shock stemming from the Iran war will hit the United Kingdom harder than any other advanced economy, notably in terms of growth and inflation. It is also the case that UK borrowing costs are higher than those in other comparable OECD countries. In short, the prospects are depressing in the extreme. What, we ask ourselves, are the Government proposing to do about it?

We read one apparent answer in today’s newspapers: freeze rents; in other words, adopt a policy which has always failed everywhere that it has been tried. Can the Minister tell us when we will be told the details of this latest whizz idea, or will he be willing to rule out the ridiculous idea definitively from the Dispatch Box, given the adverse effect on the share prices of some property companies today?

I turn a much more serious subject: defence. The world situation is becoming more worrying by the day, which makes the much-delayed defence investment plan even more important and the funding shortfall of £28 billion ever more disturbing. A responsible Government would act with vigour to progress matters. Experts are unanimous in the view that our capabilities are woefully short of what is necessary. What have the Government done about this unhappy situation? The answer is: very little, unless delay constitutes action. Can the Minister tell us when the defence investment plan will finally be published?

I turn to North Sea oil and gas, where there are possibilities that would help our economic situation by increasing output, increasing well-paid jobs and improving our balance of payments. But the Jackdaw and Rosebank decisions do not seem to have moved from the desk of the Secretary of State. His ideological prejudices are well known, though difficult to understand in the circumstances that now face us. When we last debated the Middle East, the Minister seemed warmer to North Sea exploitation than I had expected. But, in short, we are still seeing more delay.