The following Statement was made in the House of Commons on Monday 21 February.
“With permission, Mr Speaker, I will make a Statement on our strategy for living with Covid. Before I begin, I know the whole House will join me in sending our best wishes to Her Majesty the Queen for a full and swift recovery.
It is a reminder that this virus has not gone away but, because of the efforts we have made as a country over the past two years, we can now deal with it in a very different way by moving from Government restrictions to personal responsibility, so that we protect ourselves without losing our liberties, and by maintaining our contingency capabilities so that we can respond rapidly to any new variant.
The UK was the first country in the world to administer an approved vaccine, and the first European nation to protect half its population with at least one dose. Having made the decision to refocus our NHS this winter on the campaign to get boosted now, we were the first major European nation to boost half our population, too. And it is because of the extraordinary success of this vaccination programme that we have been able to lift our restrictions earlier than other comparable countries—opening up last summer while others remained closed, and keeping things open this winter when others shut down again—making us one of the most open economies and societies in Europe, with the fastest growth anywhere in the G7 last year.
While the pandemic is not over, we have now passed the peak of the omicron wave, with cases falling, hospitalisations in England now fewer than 10,000 and still falling, and the link between infection and severe disease substantially weakened. Over 71% of all adults in England are now boosted, including 93% of those aged 70 or over. Together with the treatments and scientific understanding of the virus we have built up, we now have sufficient levels of immunity to complete the transition from protecting people with Government interventions to relying on vaccines and treatments as our first line of defence.
As we have throughout the past two years, we will continue to work closely with the devolved Administrations as they decide how to take forward their own plans. Today’s strategy shows how we will structure our approach in England around four principles. First, we will remove all remaining domestic restrictions in law. From this Thursday, 24 February, we will end the legal requirement to self-isolate following a positive test, and so we will also end self-isolation support payments, although Covid provisions for statutory sick pay can still be claimed for a further month. We will end routine contact tracing, and no longer ask fully vaccinated close contacts and those under 18 to test daily for seven days. We will also remove the legal requirement for close contacts who are not fully vaccinated to self-isolate. Until 1 April, we will still advise people who test positive to stay at home, but after that we will encourage people with Covid-19 symptoms to exercise personal responsibility, just as we encourage people who may have flu to be considerate to others.
It is only because levels of immunity are so high and deaths are now, if anything, below where we would normally expect for this time of year that we can lift these restrictions. And it is only because we know omicron is less severe that testing for omicron on the colossal scale we have been doing is much less important and much less valuable in preventing serious illness. We should be proud that the UK has established the biggest testing programme per person of any large country in the world. This came at vast cost. The testing, tracing and isolation budget in 2020-21 exceeded the entire budget of the Home Office; it cost a further £15.7 billion in this financial year, and £2 billion in January alone, at the height of the omicron wave. We must now scale this back.
From today, we are removing the guidance for staff and students in most education and childcare settings to undertake twice-weekly asymptomatic testing. And from 1 April, when winter is over and the virus will spread less easily, we will end free symptomatic and asymptomatic testing for the general public. We will continue to provide free symptomatic tests to the oldest age groups and those most vulnerable to Covid. And in line with the practice in many other countries, we are working with retailers to ensure that everyone who wants to can buy a test. From 1 April, we will also no longer recommend the use of voluntary Covid-status certification, although the NHS app will continue to allow people to indicate their vaccination status for international travel. The Government will also expire all temporary provisions in the Coronavirus Act 2020. Of the original 40, 20 have already expired and 16 will expire on 24 March. The last four, relating to innovations in public service, will expire six months later, after we have made those improvements permanent via other means.
Secondly, we will continue to protect the most vulnerable with targeted vaccines and treatments. The UK Government have procured enough doses of vaccine to anticipate a wide range of possible Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation recommendations. Today, we are taking further action to guard against a possible resurgence of the virus, accepting JCVI advice for a new spring booster offered to those aged 75 and over, to older care home residents, and to those over 12 who are immunosuppressed. The UK is also leading the way on antivirals and therapeutics, with our Antivirals Taskforce securing a supply of almost 5 million, which is more per head than any other country in Europe.
Thirdly, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies advises that there is considerable uncertainty about the future path of the pandemic, and there may of course be significant resurgences. SAGE is certain that there will be new variants, and it is very possible that those will be worse than omicron. So we will maintain our resilience to manage and respond to those risks, including our world-leading Office for National Statistics survey, which will allow us to continue tracking the virus in granular detail, with regional and age breakdowns helping us to spot surges as and where they happen. And our laboratory networks will help us understand the evolution of the virus and identify any changes in characteristics.
We will prepare and maintain our capabilities to ramp up testing. We will continue to support other countries in developing their own surveillance capabilities, because a new variant can emerge anywhere. We will meet our commitment to donate 100 million vaccine doses by June, as our part of the agreement at the UK’s G7 summit to provide a billion doses to vaccinate the world over the next year. In all circumstances, our aim will be to manage and respond to future risks through more routine public health interventions, with pharmaceutical interventions as the first line of defence.
Fourthly, we will build on the innovation that has defined the best of our response to the pandemic. The vaccines taskforce will continue to ensure that the UK has access to effective vaccines as they become available, and has already secured contracts with manufacturers trialling bi-valent vaccines, which would provide protection against Covid variants. The therapeutics taskforce will continue to support seven national priority clinical trial platforms focused on prevention, novel treatments and treatments for long Covid. We are refreshing our biosecurity strategy to protect the UK against natural zoonosis and accidental laboratory leaks, as well as the potential for biological threats emanating from state and non-state actors.
Building on the five-point plan that I set out at the UN and the agreements reached at the UK’s G7 last year, we are working with our international partners on future pandemic preparedness, including through a new pandemic treaty; an effective early warning system or global pandemic radar; and a mission to make safe and effective diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines available within the first 100 days of a future pandemic threat being identified. We will host a global pandemic preparedness summit next month.
Covid will not suddenly disappear, so those who would wait for a total end to this war before lifting the remaining regulations would be restricting the liberties of the British people for a long time to come. This Government do not believe that that is right or necessary. Restrictions take a heavy toll on our economy, our society, our mental wellbeing and the life chances of our children, and we do not need to pay that cost any longer. We have a population that is protected by the biggest vaccination programme in our history; we have the antivirals, the treatments and the scientific understanding of this virus; and we have the capabilities to respond rapidly to any resurgence or new variant.
It is time that we got our confidence back. We do not need laws to compel people to be considerate to others. We can rely on our sense of responsibility towards one another, providing practical advice in the knowledge that people will follow it to avoid infecting loved ones and others. So let us learn to live with this virus and continue protecting ourselves without restricting our freedoms. In that spirit, I commend this Statement to the House.”
My Lords, the Prime Minister was clearly very upbeat throughout his Statement yesterday, announcing an end to all legal Covid restrictions in England and setting out part of the Government’s living with Covid plan. The pace and the efficiency of the vaccine programme, the justification for the changes, has been extraordinary. I again commend and thank the scientists, staff and volunteers of the National Health Service, and indeed some Ministers, for their collective efforts.
As many in your Lordships’ House have said before, Covid and our necessary response to it has taken an enormous toll on the nation’s physical and mental health, on society as a whole and on every aspect of our economy—we are all desperately keen to get back to how things were. Yet even the Prime Minister admits that Covid is not going to suddenly disappear, which means that this next stage—with a now hopefully much reduced virus—has to be well thought out, manageable and resilient over time.
I would like to probe the background to the decision with the noble Baroness and clarify some of the points about how we move forward. First, as the noble Baroness is aware, the BMA and other bodies do not believe that the decision is evidence led. Can she offer any reassurance to your Lordships’ House and state whether the decision is in line with the recommendations of SAGE, as well as those of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser?
On these Benches, we are optimistic that we could well be moving on from the very worst of this pandemic. Vaccinations, testing and self-isolation have been highly effective in reducing infections and transmission and thereby reducing the likelihood of new variants. But the SAGE advice is that something worse than omicron will be an ever-present threat. So, with all the restrictions being removed, there is real concern that ending the legal requirements to isolate and stopping free tests on 1 April feel quite arbitrary. So, can the noble Baroness say anything further about the evidence base for the timing of those two points following restrictions being removed, and commit to placing supporting information in the Library? Also, will there be an impact assessment on the consequences of lifting restrictions all at once, alongside the testing and self-isolation, and what mitigations are being considered?
My Lords, I begin where the Prime Minister concludes his Statement:
“We do not need laws”,
he says,
“to compel people to be considerate of others. We can rely on that sense of responsibility towards one another”.—[Official Report, Commons, 21/2/22; col. 45.]
If this were the case, many laws would not be on the statute book and, indeed, many aspects of the regulations that we have had in place over the last two years would not have been necessary. For this Prime Minister to claim that we can rely on the sense of responsibility towards one another shows a remarkable lack of self-awareness. He did not behave responsibly even when there were laws in place, so to remove all legal restraints at one fell swoop seems to me, at best, an extremely risky option. Doing so makes sense only if we are confident that the costs involved are manageable.
It is obviously a great relief that numbers are falling and that serious illness is on the wane, but the death only last week of one of my colleagues, having been in ICU with Covid, is a timely warning to us all that this disease is far from done. While everybody agrees that we have to learn to live with Covid, that is not the same as getting rid of every precautionary measure. We need to ensure that cases continue to diminish, the vulnerable are protected and pressure on the NHS is bearable.
The Prime Minister repeatedly said yesterday that taking personal responsibility requires people to test themselves and to self-isolate if they think they have the disease, but, for those on limited income, including the millions who are not eligible for sick pay, the cancellation of self-isolation support payments will make that an impossible choice. If faced with heating or eating, or paying for a coronavirus test, it is pretty obvious which will be the lowest priority. So, we have real concerns about getting rid of free testing, especially for those who are either vulnerable or have family members who are vulnerable.
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On self-isolation, the Prime Minister draws a comparison with flu in terms of staying at home. Yet we know Covid is much more highly transmissible. If I have understood this correctly, the advice is to make a personal decision on whether or not to self-isolate. But without a legal requirement, what assessment has been made of high-risk workplaces such as care homes and the National Health Service? The noble Baroness will understand that most people want to do the right thing. But some are going to struggle with, on the one hand, guidance telling them to self-isolate if positive, and, on the other hand, pressures—either financial or from an employer—forcing them to work.
Can the noble Baroness also provide further details on the cost of purchasing tests? With rapidly increasing household bills, paying for testing, particularly where an employer might require it, will be an additional pressure for many. The Prime Minister has said that free tests will be available to the oldest age groups and the most vulnerable. What about those working with them? In the Statement, Mr Johnson merely offered that the Government were working with retailers to supply tests, so can the noble Baroness shed any further light on this, including on whether the reports of £3 for each individual test are accurate and whether the price will be fixed?
Also, will there be a greater effort to support UK manufacturers rather than relying on imports? Most of the tests I have had have come from China. Also, what is the Government’s response to concerns about the sale of the UK’s flagship Vaccine Manufacturing and Innovation Centre in Oxford, at a time when vaccines are so important?
The Prime Minister reflected on the eye-watering amount of money spent on test and trace. He said it was more than the entire budget of the Home Office. Given the criticisms of that service, is the noble Baroness satisfied that the budget was well managed and value for money, or will an independent assessment be made of this?
In terms of going forward, despite the success to date of vaccines, only two-thirds of those eligible for a third jab have had one. The advice is that two jabs are not enough to provide maximum protection. With all the regulations being scrapped, how will the Government ensure that everyone eligible for a booster actually gets one? With the evidence that immunity and protection are reduced quite significantly over time, we welcome the rollout of a further booster for those who are over 75. Can the noble Baroness say how long this will be for? Will it be ongoing at least for the foreseeable future, perhaps as people reach their 75th birthday?
In the Statement, the Prime Minister committed to monitoring future outbreaks. That seems sensible. But what was missing from the Statement was what the Government would do if they identified such an outbreak—or even if the emergence of a new variant was identified. Without testing and self-isolation for those infected, I am not clear what the Government’s plan is. So, can she provide any further information on that and the purpose of the monitoring, or write to me if it is not yet available?
It is absolutely critical that the right measures are in place to support people to make the right, proportionate choices going forward. We know now that, moving forward, we have to live with the virus. But that is not the same as ignoring it, and I am really not sure that the Government have the sequencing of events or the messaging right. Following this announcement, it seems that the message that the Covid-weary public can take away is that Covid is no longer a threat, because it is not essential to know whether you have it or not, as there is no testing, and it is not essential to self-isolate if you have. That is going to lead many to conclude—wrongly, as even the Prime Minister has admitted—that the pandemic is now over. So, can the noble Baroness today give us some reassurance of what the Government’s plans are in the face of any further outbreaks or new variants and what the Government are going to do to encourage the public and signal the importance of everyone getting their booster? Also, reassurance on the issue of government monitoring of any new variants or outbreaks would be really helpful, because we need to understand why the Government are doing that and what the plan is if they identify any.
The latest testing figures show that, every week, nearly 4 million people are taking regular Covid tests—on average, two a week. This includes people who take tests to protect their elderly relatives and friends, as well as vulnerable workers in people-facing industries such as hospitality who are concerned about their health. If people have to pay for this, we estimate that it could amount to an annual testing cost to an individual of up to £500. Does the Minister agree that this is simply unfeasible for many people and is also, in effect, a tax on caring? While the Prime Minister said that half a million people who are the most severely immunocompromised will get free tests, their carers and families will not.
There is also a more important principle at stake here. The Government have consistently said that the NHS is safe in our hands because it is free at the point of need. However, Covid-19 is a notifiable, highly infectious disease under the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 and the Health Protection (Notification) Regulations 2010, which say that medical practitioners must test potential cases under the NHS so that infections can be managed and monitored. Currently, all notifiable disease tests are free of charge but, from 1 April, that will no longer be the case. So, how can the Government claim that the NHS will continue to be free at the point of need? In this case, it clearly will not.
The Statement refers to SAGE’s concern about the future path of the pandemic, which underlines the importance of the survey work carried out by the ONS and Imperial College. Can the Leader confirm that these surveillance operations at ONS and Imperial will continue on a substantial scale, and can she say how quickly full, free testing and tracing can be restarted in the not unlikely event of another variant emerging?
While vaccination remains a vital tool in learning to live with Covid, some people’s immune systems wane quickly after their booster jabs. The Statement says that these people will have access to antivirals and other treatments, but the antivirals must be administered within 48 hours of symptoms starting. Can the Government confirm that such people will get access to rapid testing, to be able to start these vital treatments within the first 48 hours?
Finally, the Statement mentions the UK’s G7 plan for future pandemics. How do the Government respond to comments from the WHO that countries such as the UK are dismantling the precautions needed to ensure a safe reduction in Covid? We will learn to live with Covid, but the Government have a lot more work to do to ensure that we do it with minimal risk.