To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the defence implications of balloon incursions into Lithuania for British forces stationed in the Baltic states.
My Lords, for the avoidance of doubt, my son-in-law, as a reservist, has served recently in the Balkans and may well do so again in the future.
Lithuania has experienced over 600 balloon incursions and over 200 drone violations in 2025. It has requested support from a NATO counter-hybrid support team. The UK is the framework nation of NATO’s forward land forces in Estonia. UK forces stationed in the Baltic states as part of NATO’s forward presence remain safe and able to operate effectively. There has been no change to force protection posture for UK personnel as a result of this incident.
My Lords, I thank the Minister for his comprehensive Answer; he always gives very good answers. Balloons are not just for Christmas or festival treats. Sadly, these balloons can be serious weapons, as we have heard. Can the Minister enlighten us further about the deadly balloon incursions in Lithuania at the moment?
The Lithuanian intelligence is that the vast majority of the balloons in the drone incursions to which I have referred are for criminal activity and relate mainly to tobacco and cigarettes. Of course, that does not alter that Lithuania believes, with some credibility, that this is part of Belarus weaponising that sort of activity in order to destabilise and disrupt Lithuania and elsewhere.
My Lords, have any Royal Air Force flights been affected by these balloons? More serious even than that, this type of activity could become more widespread. What attempt are the Government making to deal with the possibility of further attacks? For example, have they tasked the Advanced Research + Invention Agency with working on this problem?
We are looking at all the various options to deter such activity, as the noble and gallant Lord will know from his own experience. Through Eastern Sentry we have tasked Royal Air Force assets to try to deter right across the eastern flank of NATO. More of that will be done. In January 2026, SACEUR will be announcing further measures that will be taken with respect to that. I point out, as I often do, the importance of deterrents. I am not talking about balloons, but since the introduction of Eastern Sentry on 10 September, there have been no Russian military aircraft incursions into NATO airspace.
My Lords, the media coverage of this universally describes a significant proportion of it being done by Belarus as a proxy for Russia. Last month, Admiral Dragone, the head of NATO’s Military Committee, said that the western military alliance was considering a more aggressive or proactive stance to Russia’s hybrid warfare, which this is. To what extent are we contributing to that process of consideration?
We are contributing to a whole range of efforts to deter Belarus’s activity, or Belarus acting as a Russian proxy. Lithuania and a number of other states have requested a NATO counter-hybrid support team from us. In the next couple of weeks it will work with Lithuania to assess what is going on there and what needs to be done, and to support Lithuania and others, if necessary, in order to deter this activity and respond appropriately.
My Lords, in a normal world, Belarus would be offering co-operation to stop this smuggling, rather than sneering and saying that Lithuania has to solve it. Lithuania has offered €1 million to anybody who can work out how to deal with these balloons. What are we doing, in co-operation with NATO’s centres of excellence in Tallinn and in Helsinki for countering hybrid and cyber threats, to ensure that we can find ways of dealing with the balloons? They represent a threat to the whole of NATO.
I agree with the threat that they represent, and the destabilisation and disruption that they cause. We are doing exactly what Lithuania has asked us to do. It has asked us, with NATO, to send a counter-hybrid team to Lithuania to work with it and establish what it needs to do to deal with the threat from the balloons, and the drone incursions, and find the most appropriate way forward. We are doing exactly what Lithuania is asking us to do within the auspices of NATO.
My Lords, I welcome and support the Government’s announcement of support through NATO. I have visited troops in that part of the world, and I know we do a lot of work in the JEF as well. Can the Minister say, particularly with regard to countries in the Balkans, what extra support is planned within the context and framework of the JEF to send a straight signal to Belarus and Russia that the threat from Belarus—we have also seen challenges in the airspace of Poland—will not be accepted or tolerated?
It is an important question, and one that both the previous Government and this Government have sought to deal with. The noble Lord will know that there are 1,000 British troops in Estonia as part of the forward land forces, along with defence attachés and others in support in other JEF nations. The noble Lord will know of Baltic Sentry, the maritime defence in and around underwater cables in the Baltic. So we have forward land forces, Baltic Sentry and, alongside that, the Eastern Sentry, which is the aerial operation. At a land force level, a maritime level and an air level, within the auspices of NATO, this country is contributing to deter Russia and to deal with the threats. We can be proud of what we are trying to do to deter Russia from the activity it is seeking to pursue.