My Lords, I welcome the opportunity to have an in-depth debate about the rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia. We have had some excellent contributions and I am determined that, as we go forward as a Government, we give this House the opportunity to have a proper debate on these issues.
Rising tensions in the Horn of Africa matter significantly to the United Kingdom. These tensions are further destabilising the region, which risks having knock-on effects on the ability of the United Kingdom and regional and international partners to counter al-Shabaab. As a result, the United Kingdom’s capacity to advance growth, climate and development partnerships in the region could be jeopardised, with worsening political instability and a worsening security environment. I recognise the importance and complexity of the issues contributing to these tensions. Despite other pressing global conflicts, we must not overlook the potential of the Horn of Africa. Yet the multiple concurrent challenges it faces—security, humanitarian and development—hinder its ability to realise that potential. But we must not give up on it.
Since 2019, the United Kingdom has allocated more than £1 billion across east Africa to humanitarian operations, helping to reach tens of millions of people with life-saving support. However, despite the progress made, the United Nations estimates that around 63 million people will still require humanitarian aid this year—that is a staggering number of people in desperate need of help. This is due to a combination of pressures, including a drought of unprecedented severity and duration, as well as flooding and conflict.
To make matters worse, the situation in the Horn has been growing more tense in recent months. At the beginning of this year, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding that could grant Ethiopia access to the sea in return for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland. This has subsequently led to a worrying deterioration in relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, and it has drawn in other regional actors, such as Egypt and Eritrea. Together with international partners, the United Kingdom has reaffirmed its support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, while Turkey is leading mediation efforts between Ethiopia and Somalia. As the United Kingdom, we are supportive of Turkey’s attempts to initiate dialogue between the two countries, and we welcome its engagement on this issue.
I will take Somalia and Ethiopia in turn to expand on this. This is a critical time for the region, as the African Union’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia will transition into a new mission. Crucial details still need to be finalised regarding the mission structure and the associated force, including which countries will contribute troops. There are still unresolved issues regarding the funding of a future mission. In recent years, the United Kingdom, alongside the EU, has been a core donor to the African Union’s mission in Somalia. But we fear that, without a sustainable funding mechanism drawn from a broader base of donors for a future mission, the crucial security gains made in recent years will be lost.
My Lords, I thank the Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Collins, for initiating this debate and for his collaborative nature, involving us in these discussions. I look forward to the maiden speech of the noble Baroness, Lady Harman, who I am sure will play a full part in your Lordships’ House.
I must question the title of today’s debate. Although His Majesty’s Government may not formally recognise Somaliland, failing to acknowledge its 6.2 million people does not make them invisible. To speak of tensions in the region while omitting the most democratic and stable society within it is, in effect, to disregard an entire nation from our discourse. Somaliland’s people are committed to democratic principles that outshine any of its neighbours, yet they find themselves absent from the very title of our discussion.
We find ourselves addressing a matter of both immediate and long-term consequence in the Horn of Africa. Specifically with regard to Somaliland, there exists a unique opportunity for the United Kingdom to act in accordance with our moral responsibilities and strategic interests. As I said, Somaliland’s democratic development offers a stark contrast to the persistent instability of its neighbour, Somalia, and it presents a prospect for stability across a region long beset by conflict. With our support, Somaliland could contribute to the security of one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors.
Since declaring independence in 1991, Somaliland has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to democratic governance. This is not an abstract ideal but a tangible process, evidenced by elections such as the one poised to be held on 13 November 2024—in two weeks’ time. This is its fourth presidential election since 2003. This commitment to democratic values must be viewed against the backdrop of rising tensions in the broader Horn of Africa.
The region is marked by significant security challenges, including the influence of the Houthis in Yemen, al-Shabaab and ISIS, all of which threaten stability. The ongoing Houthi conflict, fuelled by Iranian arms, disrupts shipping routes across the Gulf of Aden and now poses an increased threat, as the Houthis have begun collaborating with al-Shabaab, arming it with Iranian weapons to extend its reach across borders. Al-Shabaab continues to present a major threat, particularly in regions close to Somaliland’s borders, such as Sool, where the group exploits weak governance for recruitment and cross-border incursions.
My Lords, I too welcome the fact that the Government have initiated this debate and I thank the Minister for his introduction. I look forward to the maiden speech of the noble Baroness, Lady Harman. Having had a flat in her former constituency for quite a few years, I am certain that she will be very welcome in this House, and we are looking forward to hearing what she has to say.
While I think what the noble Lord had to say about Somaliland is worthy of consideration and thought, it is a difficult and delicate issue—but it has validity. A few points need to be drawn out. As quite a few noble Lords will know, Jan Egeland of the Norwegian Refugee Council was in this House last week and gave a pretty depressing comment on the state of the world. The very starkest statistic was that in the last few years, the number of refugees and internally displaced people in the world has risen from 42 million to 120 million and, while that has happened, most of the developed countries have dramatically reduced their aid and support to exactly those people. So, as the problem has got worse, support from the international community has been reduced—and we wonder why conflicts escalate and resolutions do not appear.
I have some knowledge of Ethiopia, as I have visited several times, and I have also visited Sudan and South Sudan. I have not visited Somalia, Eritrea or Djibouti, but clearly the impact is very much felt whenever you visit the region in any case. I am grateful for the fact that Anneliese Dodds, the Development Minister, visited Ethiopia in August, and that the Minister was there just a week or two ago. I think that demonstrates that the Government are engaged. I have to point out, however—and he can correct me if my figures are wrong—that from a peak of £300 million a year of the UK’s aid budget to Ethiopia, we are currently down to about £83 million, and in the case of Somalia, from a peak of £250 million it is down to £92.7 million in the current year. That reinforces the point. I know that the Government are not in a position to reverse that, but they must not cut it any further, and I think we want to see that they are beginning to build it back, and this is an area of focus where it is urgently needed.
My Lords, I am pleased to follow the illuminating and powerful speeches of the noble Lords, Lord Polak and Lord Bruce. I thank them for their welcome. I am more than pleased to find myself joining this House. We have an important job to do. Our task is to scrutinise legislation, hold the Government to account, consider and report on public policy and seek to introduce legislation or propose amendments to Bills. I pledge that I will do all that to the best of my ability, working with Peers on all sides of the House.
Everyone is so nice here. It feels quite different from the Commons. I confess that it will take me a while to get used to former members of Margaret Thatcher’s Cabinet greeting me warmly, and my former ministerial colleagues here are being much nicer to me now than I ever remember them being when we were in government together. I put it down to this being a place of post-ambition politics, and I can highly recommend it.
There are so many here whom I have worked with closely and respected over decades, not least my noble friend Lord Kinnock, who in an overwhelmingly male-dominated Parliamentary Labour Party always backed me, and my noble friend Lady Smith, whom I have admired since she won Basildon in 1997. I thank them for introducing me and for their advice.
I am grateful to Black Rod for her guidance—I ask her to pass on my thanks to all her team, who have been so helpful—as well as to the digital service, the Library, the doorkeepers and many others. It meant a great deal to me that Black Rod and her team enabled my family to be here when I was introduced last month. When I was introduced in the Commons in 1982, I was pregnant and it was my husband beaming down at me from the Gallery. This time, it was my children and grandchildren up in the Public Gallery—even one year-old baby Reuben was allowed in.
I am glad to have the opportunity to speak in this important debate. While the dreadful suffering in the Middle East and the appalling invasion of Ukraine by Putin have seized the world’s attention, there has none the less also been a steady focus in this House on the suffering in the Horn of Africa. I fully support the Minister in making that the case. I pay tribute to his speech last month and the many other excellent speeches in that debate, most particularly that of the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury.
My Lords, I begin by commending, thanking and congratulating my noble friend Lady Harman of Peckham on her maiden speech today, a speech demonstrably characterised by great experience, wisdom and insight. I will not attempt to be the feminist from the male sex in this speech— I am too much of a coward in this environment.
Occasionally, I am deluded in regarding myself as an experienced parliamentarian, with 13 years in the other place and 11 years in your Lordships’ House, taking into account that I had a three-year leave of absence. However, next to someone who served in the House of Commons for 40 years—is it 40 or 42 years? My noble friend says it is 40 years and she will know, because she has probably counted them. That makes her, as I understand it, the second-longest serving female MP in British history after my noble friend Lady Beckett, who I am delighted to see in her place today—and ended up as the Mother of the House, I am forced to regard myself as something of a neophyte in this sort of company. No less extraordinary is the fact that, on ending such a distinguished tenure, my noble friend has promptly taken up another role and entered your Lordships’ House. Indeed, perhaps only in politics could one essay this somewhat Benjamin Button-esque transformation from being the Mother of one House to an eager, thrusting new arrival in the other.
I could easily fill my allotted time by rehearsing the details of my noble friend’s distinguished career—noble Lords will be glad to hear that I will not. In my time in politics, I can scarcely think of a better fit between a job and its holder than her time as the first Minister for Women. Her role in driving the adoption of the Equality Act 2010 will be long remembered and long celebrated, and her service as deputy leader and chair of the Labour Party was undertaken with commitment and distinction.
The golden thread running through my noble friend’s career is a passionate commitment to equality and the protection of the human dignity of every individual. That consistency of purpose and sheer doggedness tell me that she is an invaluable addition to your Lordships’ House and that she will command respect and attention in all her interventions in our proceedings.
My Lords, it gives me particular pleasure to speak in this debate so that I can congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Harman, on her maiden speech. It is nice to be close again, because we shared neighbouring constituencies for over 30 years. It is a delight to see her here, and I am very pleased that she will continue the amazing work she has done over the years on women’s rights.
I am genuinely grateful to the Minister for enabling us to have this kind of debate. I hope this will be a way to discuss other parts of Africa, as it would be lovely if we could get a proper debate on Zimbabwe, as he knows. I thank him.
The Minister and other Peers have given a comprehensive view of what is happening in the Horn of Africa. Over the past number of years, we have seen rising tensions, with the civil war in Sudan continuing to destabilise the country. There has been a drought for over three years, and food shortages. Worryingly, increasing numbers of various terrorist groups seem to be escalating their fundraising and recruitment.
I will speak about the one country in the region that gives us hope—Somaliland—and add some remarks to what the noble Lord, Lord Polak, said. It is important that we remind Peers and others listening to this debate of its history. In 1960, Somaliland emerged as an independent country from the British Empire after many years as British Somaliland. After that, it very quickly took steps to merge with what was then the Trust Territory of Somaliland—historically, Italian Somaliland—to form a union. Originally, there was huge optimism and hope of creating a country where all Somalis could come and live together peacefully. Sadly, that did not happen. Things got worse, with military dictatorships based in Mogadishu, discrimination against those in northern Somalia, attacks on civilians, mass killings and genocide. Somali jets bombed parts of northern Somalia and almost completely destroyed the city of Hargeisa.
My Lords, this is a part of Africa in which the United Kingdom has interests in terms of the global combating of terrorism. There are strong diaspora communities across many parts of the United Kingdom, and UK access to key Red Sea trading routes is fundamental to our economy.
It is also an area where the UK has values. A thread throughout this debate has been the humanitarian crisis, which we discussed last week in the debate of my noble friend Lady Featherstone; in the debate of the noble Lord, Lord McConnell, on the sustainable development goals; and previously in the debate on Sudan, as the Minister said. I therefore thank the Minister for bringing this debate to the Chamber—a causal effect of the Question from the noble Lord, Lord Browne, which called for it. Now that I have learned how these things happen, I will not forget that lesson.
For at least a little part of this debate, we had packed Government Benches taking an interest in the Horn of Africa. That might be because of the outstanding contribution from the new Member, the noble Baroness, Lady Harman. As the noble Lord, Lord Browne, indicated, our having in this debate the two longest-serving female MPs in British history is a great credit to this House. I also hope that her choosing this debate to send her powerful message on FGM, along with her campaigning, means that we will see a reversal of the previous Administration’s cuts to global FGM support, in which case her contributions will have proved extremely powerful. Noble Lords can count me as a supporter of her work—even though I am having to adjust to being in a post-ambition part of my political career.
The MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland is of importance, and I was glad that the Minister gave precedence to that. This is not some form of debate about a race for recognition or a glib idea that, because it had been part of a British colonial past, it deserves our recognition now. Sensitive diplomatic talks, brokered by Türkiye, are going on between Somalia and Ethiopia, which are of significance. There is no clear diplomatic breakthrough, and, as the noble Lord, Lord Browne, and my noble friend Lord Bruce indicated, the alternative to diplomatic work is fearful. Therefore, we have to guard against language such as “there could be a backlash”.
My Lords, I thank all noble Lords for their contributions. It has been another outstanding debate in your Lordships’ House. I thank the Minister for tabling it.
I start by joining with others in commending the noble Baroness, Lady Harman, for a quite outstanding maiden speech. The noble Baroness has had a remarkable parliamentary career in the other place and its loss is very definitely our gain. I was thinking that with the noble Baronesses, Lady Harman and Lady Beckett, and my noble friend Lady May of Maidenhead, who made her maiden speech last week, we men need to up our game a bit if we are to compete with all these excellent women joining us from the other place. I particularly liked the remark from the noble Baroness, Lady Harman, that this was a post-ambition House. I can assure her that, for those of us that until not too long ago were sitting on the other side, in government, that is certainly true, or it is in my particular case. But it was an excellent contribution, and we look forward to the many excellent contributions that I am sure she will make in the years to come.
On these Benches we hold long-standing commitments, like most others, to upholding international law and supporting peaceful resolutions to global conflicts, and it is from that stance that we approach today’s debate. As the Minister outlined in his introduction, tensions have increased greatly since the signing of the partnership this January between Ethiopian and Somaliland. While it is important to recognise, as many other noble Lords have done, Ethiopia’s desire as a landlocked nation for improved trade routes to boost its economy, we must also recognise the ramifications of it engaging with Somaliland.
Somaliland is indeed a fascinating territory with much to commend it, as my noble friend Lord Polak reminded us, with many democratic features. It is much more sustainable than the rest of Somalia. Of course, it is currently not internationally recognised as independent but still considered part of Somalia, even though in practice it is not. I believe that the time is fast approaching when we will need to reconsider that long-standing Foreign Office policy. It has been throughout all parties for many years now, but Somaliland has proved itself worthy of further consideration.
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I turn to Ethiopia. Only recently, we marked the 40th anniversary of the 1984 famine. We have also recently addressed a question relating to the tensions in the Horn. As I have repeatedly said, Ethiopia is a country of unbridled possibilities, with an innovative population, an expanding economy and a rich history. Yet challenges persist, and we continue to raise them with its Government. That includes finding political solutions to internal conflicts, which have a devastating impact on civilians, particularly women and girls. The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU risks bringing further instability to a region that is already engaged in tackling issues such as conflict, food insecurity and terrorism, while also posing a threat to Somalia’s territorial integrity. That comes on top of already tense relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, making it all the more necessary that we do everything possible to de-escalate tensions.
It is clear that the rising tensions and deteriorating relationships in the Horn of Africa have been exacerbated by the signing of the MoU. The United Kingdom and the international community remain focused on a diplomatic approach aimed at finding a mutually agreeable solution by encouraging dialogue between the parties. It is, however, crucial to avoid any action that could destabilise regional security.
I will add a bit about Sudan, because we cannot talk about the Horn of Africa without acknowledging the serious situation there. I know that Sudan is a matter of deep concern to many Peers across the House. Since conflict erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in April last year, Sudan has witnessed one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Over 24 million people urgently need humanitarian assistance, and famine has been confirmed in northern Darfur. Humanitarian access continues to be deliberately blocked, and atrocities are being committed on a horrific scale.
In response, the United Kingdom has provided £113.5 million in aid this year to support those fleeing violence in Sudan and neighbouring countries. The United Kingdom continues to be at the forefront of efforts to respond to this crisis. Most recently, on 18 October, we led a joint statement, together with 10 other donors, condemning the obstruction of aid and calling upon the warring parties to comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law. We continue to pursue all diplomatic avenues to press the parties into a permanent ceasefire, to allow unrestricted humanitarian access, to protect civilians and to commit to a sustained and meaningful peace process. Additionally, as we prepare to assume the presidency of the United Nations Security Council in November, the United Kingdom will push for actionable steps to protect civilians in Sudan, in alignment with recent UN recommendations.
The United Kingdom’s commitment to Sudan remains strong, with continued advocacy for peace, accountability and relief for the Sudanese people.
Furthermore, ISIS has established a presence in Puntland, raising alarms about potential infiltration into Somaliland’s contested areas. These security dynamics are exacerbated by the region’s fragile governance and the vulnerability of marginalised populations, whom terrorists of course exploit for recruitment. Here, the UK’s engagement in counterterrorism and governance enhancement is not merely beneficial but essential.
Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is complicated by the actions of key players in the region. Djibouti, a strategic nexus hosting military bases for countries such as the United States, China and France, plays a crucial role in supporting the economic stability of landlocked Ethiopia. However, Djibouti faces challenges in balancing relationships with these foreign powers while managing regional refugee flows. Eritrea, under President Afwerki’s one-party state, has seen a normalisation of relations with Ethiopia since 2018, yet remains embroiled in human rights abuses and regional conflicts, notably in Tigray.
Ethiopia itself is beset by internal conflicts, including in Tigray, as I have said. In Somalia, the persistent threat of al-Shabaab, coupled with political instability and corruption, further complicates the regional landscape. The reliance on the African Union mission underscores the need for a concerted international effort to address these governance challenges.
At the heart of these rising tensions are territorial and border disputes, for example between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and clashes over contested regions, such as Sool and Sanaag, between Somaliland and Puntland. The dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea over the Dumeira mountain and island further illustrates the fragility of regional stability. Internal ethnic tensions in Ethiopia, exacerbated by the Tigray conflict and violent clashes among various groups, pose additional risks of escalation.
Somaliland, amid these challenges, continues to seek international recognition and investment, highlighting its relative peace and democratic governance compared with Somalia. The recent provision of iris biometric technology by Taiwan marks a commendable step toward ensuring electoral transparency, and Somaliland faces considerable challenges from foreign interference in its elections. Both neighbouring states and external actors see these elections as opportunities to advance their geopolitical interests. Thus, it is critical to support Somaliland in strengthening its electoral integrity and ensuring transparency and fairness while preventing undue foreign influence.
Additionally, external influences from Middle Eastern powers, such as the UAE and Qatar, further complicate local politics. China’s expanding presence in the region, particularly its military base in Djibouti and strategic investments, highlights the competing interests of global powers. As these dynamics play out, we must remain vigilant against the potential for escalating conflicts to ignite broader regional wars, which would of course have devastating humanitarian consequences, including famine, disease and mass displacement.
In this complex context, I believe that the United Kingdom, with its historical ties and global standing, is uniquely positioned to play a constructive role in Somaliland’s future. Recognising independence would not merely acknowledge a political reality but would strategically align with our objectives in the Horn of Africa. Such recognition would signal our commitment to supporting democratic governance, reinforcing stability and ensuring secure trade routes. Critics may argue that such recognition could destabilise the region, yet we must question whether adherence to outdated paradigms serves the cause of peace and progress. Supporting Somaliland’s independence is not just a matter of principle; it aligns with our strategic interests in a region marked by volatility and uncertainty. I spoke in your Lordships’ House on 25 July about the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding, which the noble Lord referred to. I hope it will turn into a full-scale agreement.
I will end as I began. The people of Somaliland should not be invisible, especially here in the UK, and while we do not officially recognise their home country, we owe it to them to recognise them and support their most basic human rights, wishing the country well in its democratic elections in two weeks’ time.
As the Minister said, it is a very complex region and the interconnections are very difficult, but he quite rightly made some positive comments about what those countries are trying to do. Somalia is definitely in a better place than it was a few years ago, but it is not out of the woods. Somaliland is a shining example in one sense, but there is an unresolved problem. Eritrea is still a worry. The point that I wish to make is that there are 120 million people or more living in Ethiopia and, in spite of some reverses in the last few years because of the internal conflicts, Ethiopia has achieved a huge amount since it got rid of the communist Government, in a whole variety of ways. The poverty indicators have dropped very sharply and health and education have improved, but it has slid, because of the conflict, in the last few years.
While the Prime Minister’s rhetoric may not be helpful, it is quite understandable that a country of 120 million people that is trying to build a successful economy and has no access to the sea, other than by agreement with Djibouti—which has its own problems—is looking for secure access. It used to have it when it possessed Eritrea. That is not a viable option, so it is understandable that it would look to Somaliland, with very close access to the sea and a stable environment.
It is equally understandable that Somalia is more than uncomfortable about that—it is very angry. My appeal to the Minister is from the point of view of the UK and the international community: this could surely be resolved by negotiation and agreement, but the starting point has to be that Ethiopia’s need for safe and secure access to the sea is a legitimate aspiration that it would be helpful if its neighbours could take a constructive attitude towards resolving. I can put it no more firmly than that. I cannot say what the answer should be, but it is an understandable wish and refusing to address it does not help us.
As the Minister said, we have the problem of the spillover from Sudan and South Sudan, with refugee camps in Ethiopia and probably the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet. The UK is the UN penholder on Sudan, so we have reasonable responsibility to help resolve that situation. Lowering the temperature, addressing the issues and getting the parties together is the only way that we will resolve this.
The consequences of climate change and the current famine are an added burden. We all know that this is the 40th anniversary of the famine, but it is important to remember that it was to some extent directly caused by the appalling Government of the time—part of it deliberately and the rest by neglect. Therefore, it is understandable that the Government who have succeeded them, even though they have changed in the last few years, are very sensitive to Ethiopian famine because they have done an awful lot to try to ensure that they can manage famine and stress from their own resources as well as international aid. Even when it is embarrassing for them, they are prepared to make a public statement that they are facing the prospect of famine and looking for practical support. We should acknowledge that, because it shows that we respect what they are trying to do and that we are there to try to help, rather than giving the terrible image of Africa as a completely failed continent that cannot cope, which is just not true. The scale of climate change and the extremity of some of the drought is beyond human control but not beyond management and resolution.
The UK Government’s engagement in the region has been positive and constructive but regrettably rather downgraded in recent years. That has been noticed. I was advised that the very sharp withdrawal from aid projects in Ethiopia led a Minister in the Ethiopian Government to say that they were not sure they wanted to work with the UK Government in future because they could not trust the continuity. I hope that this Government, whatever they do, do not stop and start— I hope they start and do not stop—because that is the worst way to handle aid and development co-operation on a mutually respectful basis.
There is a tendency for this to become an issue when there is a crisis—when the TV news cameras are in, when there is an appeal or whatever. That creates a rather negative image—not that it is not real—when surely this is about long-term solutions and building resilience and capacity. When I had the honour to chair the International Development Committee, I always used to say to people: “It is not the Foreign Aid Committee; it is the International Development Committee”. Sometimes aid is necessary in an emergency, but it needs to be backed up by sustained development programmes to build resilience and capacity to give countries the ability to tackle their problems in the long term. I appeal to the Government not just to respond to crises but to set in process programmes with long-term continuity. They do not always get the attention but they make the difference, which is really important.
As I have said before in this House, we need to rebuild the cross-party consensus that we had, because we have broken the connection between the British public and the importance and relevance of our overseas development programme, both in compassion and in our internal national interest. We need to rebuild that, because at the moment the attitude tends to be: “We have all these problems at home, so we really shouldn’t be addressing that”. But we will have more problems at home if we do not do so. We live in a shared, over- crowded and overstressed planet. We are part of the overstressing and have to be part of the solution too.
I appreciate the fact that two Ministers have been to Ethiopia in very short order. I hope that our relationship with Ethiopia and the neighbouring territories will continue and that our role as penholder on Sudan might help us push that forward. Can the Minister say to what extent the UK could help with mediation among the countries, in particular between Somaliland and Ethiopia, and give some leadership to the international community? We are not the single most important player, but we have been an important player and can be again. I hope we will recognise that these tensions can be resolved by good will. The rhetoric has been restrained; there has been a bit of tub-thumping, but they have just held back from escalating it to conflict. That could happen, but should not. This is no justification. Conflict will resolve nothing, just make a very bad situation a lot worse.
During the 40 years I was an MP, Camberwell and Peckham became home to many from the Horn of Africa. I learned from them about the tragic waste of lives and the suffering which propelled them to leave their home and seek a better life here for themselves and their families, and I valued the contribution they made to this country. I visited the Horn of Africa out of respect for them and to get to know their homeland, and grew to understand not only the critical role of our development aid, which the noble Lord, Lord Bruce, spoke about, but the crucial importance of the money they send back from the often low pay that they earn here. Those who send remittances for the welfare of those in conflict-blighted homelands are truly the hidden heroes of international development and I hope the new Government will recognise that and facilitate their contributions.
As we debate the many problems in the region, we must have at the forefront of our minds the absolute need to tackle the monstrous abuse that is female genital mutilation. Across the Horn of Africa, millions of women are living with the consequences of the brutality of FGM. Somalia and Somaliland have an almost universal rate of FGM; it is inflicted on all women. It is rife in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sudan, too. FGM is cutting, scraping and cauterising procedures to remove the external female genitalia, and it is carried out on girls from as young as infancy up until the age of 15. The pain inflicted by it does not stop after the initial procedure but continues with bleeding, infections, shock, and difficulty in passing urine, having sex and childbirth.
I pay tribute to those in the region who challenge the taboo subject of FGM and those here too from the diaspora community who fearlessly speak out against it. Our new Development Minister, Anneliese Dodds, is also Minister for Women, and I know that she will make this a priority. We should recognise that the eradication of FGM and the empowerment of women with a new generation of women leaders will bring new prospects to the region.
There are now many women in this House who are proud feminists and I look forward to continuing to work with them, but, in conclusion and ever-hopeful, I want to say I am on the lookout here for male allies of feminism, not so that you can decide our agenda, heaven forbid, not so you can lead us—we are more than capable of doing that ourselves—but so you can actively back us in our work as we go forward to greater equality for women.
I thank my noble friend the Minister not merely for affording us the opportunity to consider this Motion today but for the characteristically wise and well-informed speech with which he opened the debate. I called for a full debate in government time on the situation in the Horn of Africa in Oral Questions on 10 October. Whether the scheduling of today’s debate is causation or coincidence, I join other noble Lords in welcoming the opportunity to turn the full glare of our attention to the conflicts that disfigure some parts of the Horn of Africa and the splintering peace in others.
It is perhaps understandable—but no less regrettable—that in general, conflicts in this part of the world are ill-served by international reporting, and consequently receive a very small percentage of global attention. I do not propose to enter into the question of why, for instance, the deaths of around 20,000 in the Sudanese civil war since April 2023 have excited such an extraordinarily small fraction of the international emotion and indignation that has focused on Ukraine and the Middle East over the last couple of years, but it is something that might repay a little thought. Finland’s Foreign Minister rightly warned about the dangers of “Ukraine fatigue” two weeks ago. Those who are victims of state-sponsored violence or repression or of militia groups in the Horn of Africa would welcome even a fraction of the apparently attenuating western attention that is focused on Ukraine.
Mindful of the debate on the 40th anniversary of the Ethiopian famine and the many forensic and moving contributions from noble Lords on that occasion, I will focus the first part of my remarks on Eritrea. Your Lordships’ House will be aware that on 10 October, the Presidents of Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea met in Asmara to sign a joint statement which pledged the three participants to work together for
“strategic co-operation in all fields”.
That designedly vague phraseology should give us pause but, if precedent is any guide, we can expect an intensification of mutual military aid and co-ordination —largely directed against Ethiopia. Indeed, even before the summit concluded, Egypt had sent two arms shipments to Somalia to reduce its reliance on Ethiopian forces in fighting al-Shabaab.
The communiqué that followed the summit underlined tripartite agreement on—I read this short—
“respect for the sovereignty … and territorial integrity of the countries”
in the region. Although cloaked in the cool objectivity of diplomatic language, this was a pretty clear disavowal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s coastal ambitions and the MoU Ethiopia has concluded with Somaliland.
Such agreements serve only to normalise Eritrea and its regime, but Eritrea has consistently acted as a destabilising force in the region. Not only is it a one-party state but it is now a one-family state, with President Isaias having frequently signalled his intention that his son should succeed him. It ranks last out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders press freedom index. It sits 161st out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s corruption perception index. The UN special rapporteur describes “severe control” exercised by the state over every aspect of civil and personal life, and daily repression clouds the lives of all Eritreans. Thousands of political prisoners within Eritrea are subject to torture and sexual violence, 300,000 individuals are subjected to forced labour, and almost half of Eritrea’s population is forced into military service, which can last for decades.
These statistics detailing internal repression within Eritrea are grim enough, but the recent diplomatic alignment with Egypt and Somalia is doubly concerning given Eritrea’s long record of intensifying regional conflicts or fanning them into flame. Eritrea’s President Isaias has a record of plotting attacks against neighbouring states. Despite having won independence from Ethiopia as recently as 1993, Eritrea has already engaged in conflicts with Yemen, Sudan and Djibouti, while recently offering intermittent support to al-Shabaab. With all that in mind, can the Minster tell us what assessment the Government have made of the potential benefits or drawbacks of sanctioning individual members of the Eritrean Government and the Eritrean Defence Forces who have involved themselves in serious human rights violations in Tigray and Eritrea itself, their own country?
I would also welcome any comments my noble friend might share on Eritrea’s diplomatic closeness with Beijing. Only last month, President Isaias attended the Beijing summit and was greeted by Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, and a warm statement committing to further Sino-Eritrean co-operation under the auspices of the belt and road initiative. I mention that not merely because it is a further supervening diplomatic complication but because those economic ties to China and the Gulf states render our sanctions many times less effective than they otherwise would be.
I have focused my attention thus far on Eritrea and its increasing gravitation towards Somalia and Egypt, but as other noble Lords have reminded us, the start of this phase of escalation is at least partly consequent on the MoU signed by Ethiopia and Somaliland. The expansionist ambitions of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are placing a severe strain on relations with Somalia. They are pulling other regional powers, including Egypt and Turkey, into the orbit of this diplomatic crisis, and have fashioned an ideal context in which al-Shabaab recruitment and funding have spiked.
Of course, the quid pro quo for coastal access in the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland is the recognition of Somaliland independence. I understand those who point to the cultural distinctiveness, the resilience of civil society and the six democratic elections and peaceful transfers of power in Somaliland as factors that should impel this country to recognise Somaliland independence, but I worry about the consequences.
A senior adviser to the Somali president, speaking under the condition of anonymity, told the world that Somalia is prepared to countenance war with Ethiopia over the deal. In June, Somalia announced that it would expel thousands of Ethiopian troops deployed against al-Shabaab unless the deal was scrapped by the end of the year. Compounding that capacity problem in quelling terrorism, the Institute for the Study of War released an analysis last month that suggested that an intensification of Egyptian military support for Somalia would destabilise the region and hinder operations designed to counter al-Shabaab. In such a febrile situation, what precedent would UK recognition of Somaliland aspirations set?
Were we to indulge in unilateral recognition of Somaliland independence, it is not only possible but probable that this would be seen as implicit endorsement for the separatist aspirations of a host of other groups and regions across the Horn of Africa. In other quarters, it may well be greeted as a piece of high-minded neocolonialism, pushing states engaged in conflict with separatists in their own populations further into the arms of China, Russia and other strategic adversaries. No UN member state has recognised Somaliland’s claim of independence, and earlier this year their Government began the process of appealing to the International Court of Justice. It would surely be destabilising to pre-empt, or possibly to disavow, that judgment by proceeding unilaterally.
The Ethiopia/Somaliland MoU stipulates that Ethiopia can lease a 20-kilometer coastline in Somaliland’s Awdal region for 50 years to build its naval base. That region within Somaliland is dominated by the Issa clan, who have protested vigorously against this deal, accused the Somaliland Government of selling their land and threatened war if the agreement is not rescinded. This is another reminder, if one were needed, of the intense complexities that shape the politics of this region.
Your Lordships’ House will recall the Edwardian satirist, Saki, who in 1911 described countries in the Balkans as producing
“more history than they can consume locally”.
We all know what followed three years later. I believe that the same remark could be applied to this region, with all its complexity: ethnic, religious, cultural and political affiliations that do not conform neatly with national boundaries.
I reiterate my admiration for the vigour with which my noble friend the Minister, the Foreign Secretary and others have pursued a course of de-escalation in the Horn of Africa in the few short months they have been in post. With that in mind, can my noble friend say what consideration the Government are giving to ongoing participation in the EU’s CSDP missions, including in Somalia? Given that international unity is the best means we have of mitigating the humanitarian impact of regional divisions and conflicts, such a step, while small, may well enable us better to ease these conflicts in the medium to longer terms.
Out of those decades of horror, Somaliland declared itself free of Somalia in a declaration of independence in 1991. For the last 33 years, that proud country has been asking for the world to recognise it. It is doing everything that we in the western world—western democracies—continue to flag up as showing what a democratic free country should do. As has been mentioned, it has regular, free and fair elections. In a couple of weeks, they will have their sixth presidential election, and I hope and am sure that, like those before, it will be peaceful.
It has an active civil society and has made huge strides in the advancement of women’s rights, even beginning to tackle what the noble Baroness, Lady Harman, mentioned: the scourge in that area of female genital mutilation. The current president is even considering banning FGM altogether. All sexual violence and rape acts go through the criminal justice system and are not, as elsewhere in the region, dealt with by community or customary laws, which have been outlawed. It has a strong and fair justice system and religious tolerance.
Indeed, in this whole region, independent Somaliland is the only beacon for democracy and the rule of law. We should be lauding what it has achieved. Yet despite that progress, its achievements and its loyalty to the United Kingdom—let us not forget how many Somalis died, sacrificed in the Second World War when they joined us in fighting fascism—we always find reasons to procrastinate and not officially recognise it.
I find it interesting that when I asked a Question a couple of weeks ago as to the possibility of the UK recognising Somaliland, one or two Peers urged so much caution that it seemed they did not even want to discuss Somaliland and almost implied that those of us who raised it were being reckless. It was also very telling that, in response to the Minister’s Answer, the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, was able to point out that the same Answer had been given to him to read out on the question of Somaliland being recognised when he was Minister, at least 10 years ago. That should give us food for thought, because obviously there has not been much change in the Foreign Office briefings over those years.
I am aware, as of course we all are, of the complexity of the region, as mentioned by other Peers, and that causes Foreign Office officials and Foreign Office Ministers to be very careful in their diplomatic efforts. Of course, it does not stop other countries looking after their own interests first, and we are now seeing China beginning to get very much involved in the Horn of Africa. China has said publicly that it is geographically of strategic importance to it, with abundant resources and enormous potential, and it now has a special envoy.
Any aid that we give should go directly to the people of Somaliland rather than via Somalia, where it is used as a political tool. Remember that during the Covid pandemic, vaccines earmarked for Somaliland were deliberately delayed in Mogadishu and released only hours before they expired. That exposed the politicisation of humanitarian aid. State-directed aid is also typically routed through Somalia. Understandably, the Somaliland Government have repeatedly declared that they neither can nor will accept development or budgetary support filtered through Somalia’s federal Government. They view that as an affront to a country that is running itself freely and successfully.
We should be rewarding good governance and using Somaliland as a beacon to show the rest of the region what can be achieved. Human Rights Watch produced a brief for this debate which highlights all the terrible atrocities, obscenities and human rights abuses that are taking place in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia. As the noble Lord, Lord Polak, said earlier, “Somaliland” was not even mentioned in the Human Rights Watch brief. Clearly, it did not want to distinguish between Somalia and Somaliland, and it is very sad that the benefits of what has been happening there are not being put forward.
Our Government’s position seems to be, as was mentioned in the Lords recently, that it is up to Somaliland to negotiate with Somalia. The Minister said at Questions recently that it is absolutely an issue for Somalia to resolve. I think that is not feasible at all. Look at what is happening in Somalia. It will not suddenly, or even after a lot of negotiations, say, “Somaliland, you can be independent and we will recognise you”. A noble Lord said that we will set a precedent if we recognise it, but surely the Somaliland situation is unique because it was independent. It was recognised back in 1960. There probably would be a backlash from Somalia, but I believe that recognition by us would be followed very quickly by other western countries, including the United States, and that this would encourage the people in Somalia who really want to see changes to engage in dialogue.
Surely, we should be supporting and encouraging democracy around the world. To me, recognition is not just a moral imperative; it would give the United Kingdom a strategic advantage that aligns with our foreign policy goals. It would be the first step to promoting peace, stability and democracy in the entire Horn of Africa, benefiting all its people. I know that the noble Lord, Lord Collins, is looking at this very carefully, as was said in the short debate we had on Africa some time ago. I urge our new Government to look at this again, to be brave and not to wait for somebody else. Let us be the first to recognise what Somaliland has done and can do, and how that could play a real part in improving the terrible situation in that region.
This is an area where, as we heard, there has been the worst famine and the greatest number of displaced people in a generation, and very sensitive geopolitical talks are happening that could lead in certain areas to tribal conflict. We should bear those aspects in mind, but we should not shy away from debating the issue.
The Ethiopia MoU potentially recognises Somaliland in return for Red Sea access, possibly both naval and commercial—it is not yet clear which is the most significant priority for Ethiopia. However, it is not just about the MoU; in August, Egypt and Somalia signed a military, security and defence pact, so the two should be considered together in terms of sensitivity.
That is why it is important to recognise that the neighbouring countries and Somalia as part of the African Union peacekeeping mission should be relevant for consideration as well. There are Ethiopian troops in Somalia as part of ATMIS. It is not just that these are neighbouring countries; there are troops in country. The mandate for ATMIS is up for renewal at the end of the year. Ethiopia has said that it may not want to be part of it but may seek to have Egypt fill a gap as far as potentially having troops as part of the AU force. What is the Government’s assessment on the continuation of ATMIS or an AU-sponsored force? Will it be likely to have a replenishment of the force capability? Are there other countries that could be troop-contributing countries?
I previously raised in the Chamber that the UK was the lead contributing donor country to ATMIS, with its primary mission supporting our combat against Al-Shabaab. I jotted down what the Minister said because I quite liked the slight bit of officialdom—that the UK was seeking a sustainable and broader-based source of funding. That may be true, but the reality is that this is to infill from the cuts from donor countries that have pulled away from it. Are we confident that the force will have a replenishment of its funding? As far as I understand, that is not clear yet. I hope that the UK will be a contributing factor to the successor of ATMIS. Will we seek the continuation of Resolution 2719 as far as any successor organisation is concerned? I am very clear that if there are any uncertainties, any divisions, any complexities, the potential victor will be Al-Shabaab.
I want to raise two wider aspects before closing, because this is an opportunity to talk about some elements of economic development too; it should not all be seen just through the lens of conflict. I want to touch on some elements of debt, because Somalia is a case study of how, on paper, debt restructuring and moving away from debt servicing costs can look good, but the net impact is not necessarily as beneficial as we would want it to be. Somalia has had a successful debt restructuring: a $4.5 billion debt relief from the IMF and the World Bank that reduced the debt ratio from 64% of GDP to 6% of GDP. On paper, that is outstanding, but health spending in Somalia has almost halved over this period.
I know that this is one of the Government’s priorities, but when we are validly debating ways of tackling debt servicing costs, how are we ensuring that, if that is happening, there is ultimately better investment in education and in health services? We have seen that, if we move purely towards private sector reissuing of bonds, if it is not through concessional rates then there is likely to be higher rates. We have seen it in neighbouring Kenya, where there was a reissuing of bonds and 11% interest rates, which have now fed through the entire economy, and we saw the tension recently within Kenya. I am going to copy the noble Lord, Lord Browne, in asking for a debate, so I hope that at some stage we may have an opportunity of discussing the wider aspect of debt and debt servicing, because I think that all parties are now seeking to be seized of this and it is a valid issue to discuss.
Finally, the Minister referred to Sudan. He was very generous with his time yesterday in meeting Abdalla Hamdok, the former civilian Prime Minister of Sudan and leader of Taqaddum, the civilian front, with me, for a discussion. Abdalla Hamdok is in London to take part in the FT summit. I hope that the debates that we are having in Parliament on Sudan will have increased focus and interest, which will spill out to the public.
I have been pursuing the Disasters Emergency Committee, which has three criteria for triggering an appeal. This is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. It has told me that the third triggering element is not being met—that there is sufficient awareness among the public. That to me is a self-fulfilling prophecy, but if we can do anything in Parliament to say that we are aware and want to raise it, I think the great British public will be generous if there is an appeal for it. Therefore, I repeat publicly my appeal that we can trigger this. The priorities are perfectly clear: protection of civilians, for there to be a ceasefire, and a political process. The UK, as not only penholder but with the presidency of the Security Council come up is in the prime position.
I close by recalling that in 2012, when we debated Somalia in Parliament, there was a London summit on Somalia. I give credit to William Hague as Foreign Secretary, because we knew then that, if Somalia was going to fall foul of terrorism, weak neighbours, displaced people and hunger, that would have an impact on Britain. We used our convening power and we put effort into it, including diplomatic effort; we did it on focus and scale, we led up to it and delivered, and we had funding. Perhaps for the protection of civilians in Sudan, a London summit during the UK presidency of the Security Council might be the appropriate thing that we can do. I look forward to the Minister’s response.
This decision has not only heightened tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia but has highlighted the enduring, complex nature of Somaliland’s political status, as the noble Baroness, Lady Hoey, reminded us in her contribution. We should urge Ethiopia and Somalia to engage constructively through diplomatic channels. We should do whatever we can to help avoid escalation. It is a cause for concern that Turkey’s mediation efforts in July and August did not lead to a satisfactory agreement. Have the Minister or his colleagues in the department had conversations with Turkey, the African Union or the United Nations to help facilitate that dialogue?
Should Ethiopia and Somalia refuse to co-operate, they risk further destabilising what is already a very unstable region, where more than 20 million people are in desperate need of food assistance due to prolonged droughts and the destabilising impact of the ongoing Sudanese civil war. The stakes are extremely high. It is tempting to ask whether we could make the situation any worse by recognising Somaliland; maybe this is an opportunity that will prompt the rest of the nations there into further actions.
The situation becomes precarious with Somalia’s recent security pact with Egypt and Eritrea, nations whose historical tensions with Ethiopia are well documented. Egypt’s delivery of arms to Somalia and its willingness to support Somali forces with Egyptian troops are deeply alarming. With nations in the region rallying around different sides, there is a high risk of conflict expanding beyond a diplomatic dispute into a full-scale regional crisis. In this context, I ask the Minister to tell us what steps the Government are taking to counterbalance many of these concerning developments and help to ensure the de-escalation of any military ambitions.
Previous Governments of both parties have followed the standard Foreign Office line and refrained from supporting Somaliland’s independence to avoid potentially stirring further instability. It is about time that we reviewed this policy, respecting international norms, of course, but recognising the unique relationships and diplomatic ties that we have built across the region. Somaliland has successfully demonstrated stability and self-governance in recent years, and we should commend it and recognise these strides. Of course we must proceed with caution, but I agree with my noble friend Lord Polak that it could well be about time to reconsider that stance.
I also ask the Minister whether the Government are considering additional steps to help to marshal our soft power in promoting stability in the Horn of Africa. His colleague, the noble Baroness, Lady Chapman, previously mentioned that she would be reviewing our soft power strategy in the region, so I would be grateful if the Minister could give the House further information and elaborate on whether there have been any further developments in that regard. British engagement must not simply stop at diplomatic appeals but should encompass initiatives that address humanitarian needs—they are considerable—economic co-operation and institution building across the Horn of Africa.
In conclusion, we cannot ignore the severe humanitarian challenges arising from drought, conflict and food shortages in that region, which have placed millions in a state of considerable insecurity. We urge the Government to act in accordance with international law, consult with regional partners and do all they can to ease the considerable tensions in the region.