I have today published the economic impact assessment (EIA) for the Illegal Migration Bill on the Bill page on gov.uk. A copy of the EIA has been placed in the Libraries of both Houses.
The Bill is a critical component of the Government plan to stop the boats. Its intent is straightforward: to make clear that if you come to the UK illegally, you will be detained and swiftly returned to your home country if safe, or resettled in a safe third country such as Rwanda. This will help to break the business model of the people smugglers, save lives, and deter small boat crossings. The Bill will also set an annual quota for the number of people admitted to the UK for resettlement through safe and legal routes—this should be the only way for those seeking refuge to arrive in the UK.
The economic impact assessment supports the need for change, sets out the broad costs of Bill implementation, offers estimates of potential savings should the Bill succeed in deterring small boat crossings, and considers examples of where policy and operations have influenced migrant behaviour in other countries. In these international examples, including the evidence from Australia where there was a significant impact on boat arrivals due to changes introduced by the Government there, the assessment illustrates how an appropriately targeted set of measures can be associated with a decline in numbers of illegal arrivals.
Australia’s operational sovereign borders programme reduced the number of small boats arriving in Australia from around 18,000 in 2013 to virtually zero in subsequent years. We have also seen how deterrence strategies can impact on Albanian small boat arrivals in the UK. From January to May, the number of Albanians arriving by small boat so far this year is almost 90% less than in the same period last year.
The economic impact assessment clearly shows that doing nothing is not an option, as the volumes and costs associated with illegal migration and the asylum system have risen significantly over recent years, driven by the rise in small boat arrivals. This increase of pressure on the UK asylum system, public sector spending, public service and accommodation capacity, and local communities is unsustainable. That is why we are changing our laws and taking action to stop the boats.
In 2022-23, the current system cost the UK an estimated £3.6 billion in asylum support costs alone and we are spending £6 million a day on hotel accommodation. Unless we take action to stop the boats, these and other costs will continue to rise.
The economic impact assessment estimates that—at current spending levels—the Bill would need to deter 37% of arrivals to enable cost savings for the taxpayer. However, the costs of accommodating illegal migrants have increased dramatically since 2020. If these trends continue, by the end of 2026 the Home Office would be spending over £11 billion a year, or over £32 million a day, on asylum support. In such a scenario, the Bill would only need to deter 2% of arrivals for the policy to enable cost savings for the taxpayer.
The economic impact assessment forecasts a monetised benefit of over £100,000 for every illegal migrant deterred by the Bill. The impact assessment also considers non- monetised benefits that would result from stopping the boats, including: fewer individuals undertaking hazardous and unnecessary journeys crossing the channel; reduced pressures on public services and housing markets; and other wider asylum system benefits from fewer migrants being supported in the system.
The economic impact assessment will help inform further scrutiny of the Bill as it enters its Report stage in the House of Lords this week. I look forward to the Bill returning to the House of Commons soon and, subject to parliamentary approval, its enactment by the summer recess.
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