Holocaust Memorial: Forecast Cost

On 23 February, the Holocaust Memorial Bill had its First Reading in the House of Commons. Subject to Parliament’s approval of the Bill, and subject also to the granting of planning consent, the Government will proceed to construct a fitting memorial to the 6 million Jewish men, women and children murdered in the holocaust and all other victims of the Nazis and their collaborators.

Ahead of Second Reading of the Bill, I wish to update the House on the forecast costs for completion of the proposed holocaust memorial. Delays to the programme arising from the High Court challenge, together with the effects of construction price inflation, mean that forecast costs have increased since the estimates made in July 2021. Our current estimate of total costs to completion (excluding contingency) is set out in the table below. We expect that charitable donations will cover at least £25 million of these costs.

The memorial at Victoria Tower Gardens will help the whole nation to reflect on the importance of the holocaust and the lessons it holds for us today.

Spend and forecast (excluding contingency)

Previous Forecast

Current Forecast

Mar-22

Mar-23

Figures in £m incl. VAT.

Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Forecast¹

Forecast²

Client³

9.6

14.3

Design⁴

11.2

11.9

Exhibition and content development⁵

14.8

15.9

Construction⁶

62.3

91.3

Mobilisation⁷

3.6

4.0

Planning inquiry

1.4

1.4

Grand total

102.9

138.8

¹ March 2022 forecast as published by the NAO in their report “Investigation into the management of the Holocaust Memorial and Learning Centre Report” dated 5 July 2022.

² Includes the inflationary impact of delays using the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) November 2022 CPI forecast (except for the construction and exhibition elements against which sector specific inflation estimates have been applied as advised by the programme’s consultants).

³ Programme team and other programme costs: staff and contractors, rent, business case development, fundraising research, digital storage, communications, legal advice, community engagement, early programme expenditure (technical scoping reports, design competition). The key driver of the cost change is staff costs, primarily resulting from programme delays.

⁴ Up to FBC the key drivers of cost changes were refinement of plans and the costs of the planning inquiry. Since FBC the key driver is inflation followed by additional expenditure related to changing external cost managers.

⁵ Exhibition design and fit-out costs advised by cost consultants Greenway Associates and based at Q3 2022 prices. Inflation on exhibition delivery costs at an average 4.8% per annum has been applied based on BCIS (Building Cost Information Service) indices. Cost changes are a result of refinement of approach and inflationary impact of delays.

⁶ Costs are based on Q1 2022 prices; inflation based on AECOM Q4 2022 inflation indices (2022: 9%, 2023: 6.4%, 2024: 4%). Construction costs have increased primarily due to inflation resulting from both higher than envisaged construction inflation at OBC and FBC as well as delays to the programme.

⁷ Forecast of operation set-up costs: facilities management, security, staff/contractors, furniture, fixtures and equipment costs in year before opening. Increases are primarily due to refinements in forecasts at FBC stage, increased by inflation due to delays.

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