Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Steps and Other Provisions) (England) (Amendment) (No. 2) Regulations 2021

Motion to Approve

That the Regulations laid before the House on 15 June be approved.

My Lords, we are making excellent progress along the spring 2021 road map, and we now have one of the most open economies and societies in this part of the world. But we all want to see restrictions lifted even further, and on that I am optimistic. However, we know we cannot be complacent. As the Prime Minister set out in his address to the nation on Monday, we do need to hold at step 3 of the road map for just a little longer. This is vital. The very latest scientific data and evidence show us that we must proceed with the utmost caution. By pausing at step 3, we are seeking to protect the progress we have made on infection rates and the vaccine rollout, and to make absolutely certain that we are on a stable footing before we go further.

Unfortunately, the prevalence of the highly transmittable vaccine escapee delta variant has shifted our assessment of the risks. It is now the dominant variant across England, accounting for 90% of cases, and it is set to spread around the world. Its R number is estimated to be 60% to 80% higher than the previously most widespread alpha variant. The overall R number in England has increased and is now between 1.2 and 1.4, meaning that we are in the age of doubling times. We need to be in an age of halving times. Early evidence suggests an increased risk of hospitalisations with the delta variant compared with the alpha. This pause will bring us more time in the race between the vaccine and the virus. It will ensure that we as a nation are equipped as well as we can be to take on the virus and the delta variant.

Can I say a word about the vaccine? Increasing the number of second jabs is absolutely crucial. The data that we have at the moment suggests that the vaccines are less effective against symptomatic disease cause by the delta variant, but that protection increases after two doses. Two doses of the vaccine has now been shown to be highly effective in reducing hospitalisation from the delta variant, with the latest PHE data suggesting that this could be 96% for the Pfizer vaccine and 92% for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine after the second dose.

In this time, while we pause step 3, we will deliver many more first and second vaccine doses. There are currently 1.2 million over-50s and 4.3 million over-40s who have had their first jab but have not had their second. By 19 July all those over 50 and the clinically extremely vulnerable who have had their first doses by mid-May will have had their second dose—or will have been offered it. Second doses for all over-40s will be accelerated by reducing the dosing interval from 12 weeks to eight weeks. All over-40s who received a first dose by mid-May will be offered a second dose by 19 July. All adults aged 18 and over will be offered a first dose by 19 July, two weeks earlier than planned.

I am confident that we can hit those targets, not least because our vaccination programme has made great progress. A network of vaccination sites continues to operate brilliantly across the UK; there are now more than 1,990 vaccination sites in England, with more coming on line in the days and weeks ahead. Thanks to the tremendous efforts of all those involved, more than 41.8 million people in the UK have received their first dose and 30.2 million their second. From today, all adults over 21 can book their first dose.

Moved by

To leave out all the words after “that” and insert “this House declines to approve the Regulations laid before the House on 15 June because (1) the measures are disproportionate, and (2) no impact assessment has been prepared for them.”

My Lords, we are told it is “one last heave”, “a teeny bit longer”, “just a little longer” and “we only rely on the data, not the dates”. “Freedom day”, which was meant to be next Monday, has now been replaced by “terminus day”, 19 July. I hope we all believe in freedom. It is no business of the Government to tell us whether we can, for instance, hug people. They can advise perhaps, but not order us. People should be free to make their own decisions and their own assessment of risk.

We have been told since this started 15 months ago so many contradictory things. I shall start at the beginning: “Stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives”. I understand—the Minister can correct me if I am wrong—that 1% of hospital patients are now in for Covid-related issues. Are the hospitals overwhelmed? Is the NHS protected? It is not like Italy last March. On “save lives”, according to the Times, yesterday there were three Covid deaths. The average number of daily deaths over the past four weeks has been in single figures. We know that more than 75% of deaths are among the over-80s; we know that underlying health conditions—obesity, diabetes, respiratory problems or infections—are normally contributory factors to fatalities. The Prime Minister said that the extension to these regulations would save “thousands of lives”. I am not sure that is right.

This is a very serious and unpleasant virus that is killing people, but it is not the Black Death, the Great Plague or the Spanish flu. I ask every Peer in the Chamber or listening how many people they know—not know of, but know: friends or family—who have died of Covid. Most people will say none. I know two. One was an 89 year-old relation with severe dementia in a care home—where, by the way, he caught the virus; the second was a charming, really nice 55 year-old who had been working in the Commons tea room ever since I got there, Julia Clifford. It was a tragic death and I am so sorry. She had leukaemia, for which she was being successfully treated by the NHS with chemotherapy. Her immune system was damaged, and she caught the virus in hospital.

First, I thank the Minister for his briefing this morning, which I found extremely interesting and useful. I thought at first that I had strayed into a private seminar with the noble Lord, Lord Lilley, and the Minister, but after half an hour other people managed to get in. Having said that, the questions of the noble Lord, Lord Lilley, were very pertinent and well answered by the Minister and his officials. I also watched the debate in the other place this afternoon, so there are obviously a lot of outstanding issues.

I support these regulations with a heavy heart. I accept a lot of the things that the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, said about the impact on our economy. I want to ask, for instance, about compulsory vaccination for care home staff. Does that extend to care staff who go round various houses on the same day? If it does, what steps will the Minister take to ensure that their civil liberties are protected, that they get financial support and that the vacancy rate for care staff, which is already over 100,000, is actually tackled?

One point that came up frequently is the need to get rid of sloganising. We do not want “freedom day” or “terminus day”; we want facts and proportionality, in the way that the Minister is very good at. This sloganising does not help—it builds unrealistic expectations and diverts us from the detail.

Finally, there is an extraordinary thing about this fatal amendment. If I had read this letter from the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister was Keir Starmer and I was then moved to table a fatal amendment, questioning my Prime Minister when he said:

“By being cautious now we have a chance in the next four weeks to save many thousands of lives by vaccinating millions more people”,

it would be a very serious thing to try to kill off that statement. So, what is it about the Prime Minister that the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, does not think is to be trusted? I very much hope that the House will turn this down. It is not just an opportunity for a debate; this is a matter of life and death.

My Lords, here we are again, discussing emergency regulations because of incompetence and lack of speed by government. It is appalling that the Government did not take the correct decision to put India on the red travel list in early April, at the same time as Bangladesh. Yesterday, the Minister said that I should stand in his shoes about that decision. I note that, time after time, both the noble Lord and the Secretary of State gave the reason for Bangladesh but not India going on the red list as the positivity rate.

The data that I am about to read were on the Minister’s desk when the decision was made. In the two weeks leading up to Bangladesh going on the list, its positivity rate—based on the Government’s own test and trace data—was 3.7%. India’s positivity rate was 5.1%. You do not have to be a genius to work out that India’s positivity rate was higher than Bangladesh’s. Can the Minister explain why, when India had a higher positivity rate than Bangladesh, based on the Government’s own test and trace data, Bangladesh was put on the red list and India was not.

That catastrophic mistake by government meant that, rather than just under 40 seeded cases of the delta variant being in the UK on 2 April, it went up to nearly 1,000 seeded cases by the time that India was put on the red list. Public health research shows that, if India had been put on the red list at the same time as Bangladesh, it would have given four to seven weeks’ grace before we started hitting the surge levels of the delta variant that we are seeing now. That would have meant that everybody over 40 could have received a second dose—in four weeks—or everyone over 30—in seven weeks—and all adults would have had a single dose of the vaccine. The Government were driven by a date: a date for the Prime Minister to visit India to look for a trade deal. A consequence of Ministers not following the data is that trade in this country is now suppressed for four weeks. This is a disgraceful abdication of following the data and keeping our country safe. The country deserves far better than this. It is clear that the Minister and the Government made the wrong call.

My Lords, if anyone had told me when we first debated Covid controls that we would still be in lockdown over a year later despite, first, only 1% of hospital beds being filled by Covid patients, and, secondly, that vaccines that are between 92% and 96% effective had been given to over half the UK adult population, including the vast proportion of those most at risk, I would not have believed them. This creeping government control of daily life, aided by all opposition parties, in a country which used to be free, is depressing. There is always an excuse for new controls: pressure on the NHS; risks from new variants; long Covid. Will this ever end? Most importantly, what could be any different in four weeks’ time?

The extension is yet again a fait accompli, but I will make two points. First, it is extraordinary that cost-benefit is still neglected. Every week of continued lockdown is costing billions. We are crippling our economy, which is still well below last year’s levels. Debt is building up on a scale not seen since World War II. Inflation is taking off. Some 5 million are on NHS waiting lists, which will lead to unnecessary deaths. It is difficult to see your GP and visits to patients and old people’s homes are restricted, causing unhappiness. University students have had their academic careers affected and mental health problems have increased. The streets are blighted by old masks and the internet by Covid scams. There is almost no overseas travel. Furlough schemes are still running and being phased out too slowly, stopping the labour market working properly. Bars, fruit farms and even the NHS are short of staff, but billions are being spent on furlough, adding to the eye-watering £70 billion cost which the Minister mentioned yesterday.

There is an extraordinary, time-consuming bureaucratisation of life: costly social distancing; paperwork in every pub; a huge amount of time in every respectable company devoted to observing the rules. Now there are rafts of costly cancellations as well—for example, of cricket tickets, to declare a personal interest. My noble friend has always been resistant to cost-benefit analysis, which I find surprising given his esteemed business background. Is this being looked at in a broad way for the future management of pandemics?

My Lords, public health is more important than it has ever been, apart from during the Black Death and the Spanish flu. We now have a variant that is more serious than the original coronavirus. The delta variant is relentless and sweeping across the UK. It is attacking young people who have not been vaccinated and are at risk of getting long Covid. It has also put some people who have not been vaccinated in hospital. A young student at school in Gloucestershire told me that the class above his had got the virus, and the class and teacher were isolating. Young people do not want to be spreaders. When can they be vaccinated? Is the problem that there is a shortage of the Pfizer vaccine?

I hope that the Government will think again about senior schoolchildren wearing masks. There is confusion about mask wearing. At the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, people were told that masks were not necessary. Prevention is better than cure. I send my heartfelt condolences to all the families whose loved ones did not make it. It is a very difficult matter to have to continue with restrictions, but with the rise in infections again, I think that it is the right thing to do.

I am concerned that there are staff working in hospitals, in care homes and visiting people in their own home who have not been vaccinated and do not want to be. They could be putting patients and their colleagues at risk. Perhaps, they should not work in contact with people. Local authorities are given enforcement powers. How are these going to be enforced?

Having read the information for health protection, I am not clear on the outcomes before 19 July 2021. I would be grateful if the Minister could tell the House clearly about air travel, weddings and funerals. How many people are allowed at these functions?

My Lords, many of you will remember going past Westminster station last week to see a crowd of people shouting about freedom—young, intelligent people, many of them properly educated, not wearing masks, crowded together in a mass. Indeed, those of your Lordships who travel on the Northern line, as I have done today and all this last week, will have seen numerous young people not wearing masks, as there is no enforcement of that. They are a risk to other people, young and old. Nothing is being done about it because it is not being enforced. There is nobody on the Tube to enforce it.

I listened to the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, with great interest, as I always do. His wide and extensive knowledge of medicine and science does not need to be explained to the House, nor indeed his undoubted expertise in statistics. That is admirable. Indeed, I have listened to him with great interest in this Chamber and on the Long Table from time to time. I also recognise that he will very much understand the issue of human ethics. As a distinguished soldier, he will remember the paramount issue for all people, including soldiers: we try at all times, above all, to protect human life.

Therefore, it is important for us to consider that this is a very difficult situation. As a practising soldier, the noble Lord will know the difficult choices that are made in order to protect life. I suggest to him that, although extensive, his knowledge is not likely to be as extensive as that of those expert advisers giving advice to the Prime Minister. I have no doubt at all that the Government have made very many mistakes, but we are not here to discuss those mistakes. They are undoubtedly riding high on the output of vaccines. They have been very lucky, and we are glad that they have been lucky because we could been very unlucky, whichever Government had been in power.

The fact is that the Government have succeeded, and it is really important, at this moment of national tension, when people are still not fully prepared to accept what is necessary to regulate us, that people respect what the Government are doing. To challenge the Government at this moment is a shocking risk. It is an ethical risk to do that because these people will be damaging lives. We see those people in the streets and I will see them on the Tube when I go home tonight. Even if I told them to wear a mask, they would be abusive at the very least and I would possibly do it at my own risk.

My Lords, I support the postponement of the easing of restrictions and reject the fatal amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, as daily cases have now jumped to 9,000. We need more time to continue the vaccination programme before it will be somewhat safer to ease restrictions.

However, people are still suffering economically, so can the Minister say whether the furlough scheme will be extended, as well as the ban on domestic evictions, now that the Government have extended the ban on commercial evictions? Can he also tell us about the border restriction system? New variants will arise wherever large amounts of virus circulate and some may be resistant to the current vaccines. Have the Government learned from their disastrous mistake in not red-listing India three weeks earlier, when the information indicated they should? Have the criteria been adapted to prevent such a mistake happening again?

Clearly, Covid will continue to circulate in the UK for a long time after we ease restrictions, so an effective test, trace and isolate system is as important as ever. The weak link is the isolation system. An internal Whitehall assessment, seen yesterday by the media, of the financial support for those who need to isolate gave the system a low to medium effectiveness rating. Barriers and disincentives exist, particularly for those on low incomes or in precarious work, so more needs to be done.

Every time my noble friends and I have raised this over the past 15 months, the Minister has referred to the £500 grant, ignoring the fact that it is not available for most people who apply for it because they believe they really need it. I heard yesterday about a pilot scheme for increasing this support. We do not need more pilot schemes; we need immediate action. We will be living with this virus for a long time and, if nothing is done to improve isolation rates, the restrictions that the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, so abhors will have to be reintroduced in the winter.