My Lords, some of us may remember a propaganda campaign during World War II—if people are old enough, that is; we were not necessarily there. It was called, “Careless Talk Costs Lives”—in this case, livelihoods. I did not support the imposition of plan B before Christmas as I foresaw certain consequences.
It was infuriating that, despite the Prime Minister announcing a balanced approach and that we would monitor events closely, Dr Jenny Harries took to the airwaves to warn everyone to ratchet up precautions. Regrettably, the Chief Medical Officer also contradicted the policy we had, and we watched the hospitality sector once again descend into free fall. Restaurants, pubs and hotels had spent millions on food, drink and recruiting extra staff; reservations were sky-high; at last, they could make some money. But no, tens of thousands of cancellations took place that affected them all. In addition, elective surgery was halted immediately, despite a waiting list of several million people. Some hospitals allowed relatives of dying patients only a one-hour visit per day and the same then occurred in care homes. Many GPs opened their doors for jabs, but not if you needed a face-to-face appointment or a referral for surgery or treatment.
The decisions which also caused those draconian measures were also based on the modelling. It was flawed modelling, yet again: 200,000 cases a day; 25,000 to 75,000 deaths between January and March. That was blasting through the airwaves, too, and it was way out. The media, meanwhile, were back in what I call hysterical overdrive, pressing for tougher measures—just like, I fear, some of the parties opposite, along with Scotland and Wales.
The PM made the right decision. The NHS has had billions of pounds of extra investment, yet it still cannot deal with additional capacity in winter. We know it needs probably 20% more beds for respiratory infections at that time—and that was before Covid—so why was that not planned for? Meanwhile, surgeons and medics were unable to carry out their operations and their treatments. Frankly, this is just not good enough. Those responsible for managing and planning the operational structures are clearly out of their depth, and that needs to change. For far too long, too many patients have been treated like second-class citizens.