My Lords, we know this virus well enough now to know that it is not an inconsequential enemy. It has taken loved ones from us, including my godfather, Alan Williams, who some in this House may know. It has separated us from our friends and families and has left people suffering from its ill effects months after first falling ill. This country has made a great collective sacrifice throughout this year, but it has been integral to combating the virus. Regretfully, much as we would wish it were true, this virus cannot be ignored. It has not mutated into a gentler version of itself or blown itself out in the wind. Instead, it remains on the rampage, highly contagious, malicious and mortal, with the old and vulnerable square in its sights, and anyone potentially affected.
While I know that these measures have been hard, this is the reason why we have taken this course. They have always been proportionate to the threat that we face. However, I reassure noble Lords who might be in any doubt that we do not want to leave them in place for one day longer than we have to. We now judge this to be the right time to come out of the national lockdown and revert to a localised approach to managing the virus. Why is that? It is because coronavirus cases are down by 19% in England and hospital admissions have fallen by 7% compared to a week ago. The data tells us that, after many false peaks, the virus curve is finally flattening. The latest assessment from SAGE is that, having reached the summit, we are now walking down the other side, with the R for the UK between 0.9 and 1. Indeed, in its most recent survey, Imperial College London placed its estimate for England at an impressive 0.88.
This is a monumental achievement. After more than three months of growth, this is the first time the R has been estimated at or below 1 for the United Kingdom since mid-August, so at last we can be confident that the virus is coming into check. Only at that point is the danger of our hospitals being overrun starting to pass.
Leave out from “that” to the end and insert “this House declines to approve the draft Regulations because no adequate impact analysis of the social, economic and health costs of the restrictions to address the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to the benefits of those restrictions, has been laid before Parliament.”
My Lords, this is arguably the worst crisis—certainly the worst economic crisis—of my lifetime. Yesterday, as my noble friend referred to, we had, I am afraid, a totally inadequate government benefit analysis, belatedly produced at very short notice to persuade MPs to back these latest measures. It is a very poor document, and, if anyone does not believe me, they should read it.
However, there are some costs that we know about, and all these decisions regarding the crisis should be based on evidence and facts, not fear or conjecture. The costs were listed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer last week in an excellent speech, and I shall not repeat his detailed points. His main point was that the
“economic emergency has only just begun”
and that this will be
“the largest fall in output for more than 300 years”—[Official Report, Commons, 25/11/20; col. 827.]
since the Great Frost of 1709, which even I do not recall.
There are pubs and restaurants in particular, as well as innumerable other businesses, large and small, that are closed now and will never reopen. Unemployment will rocket and the young will find fewer vacancies and opportunities for employment. The economy may recover relatively quickly, but future generations—our children and grandchildren—will be saddled with huge debts for decades. In brief, that is the cost: billions and billions. The restrictions we are discussing today are really another lockdown in all but name, and, as Dr Nabarro of the WHO said, lockdowns make
“poor people an awful lot poorer”.
What about the benefits? On 1 October, the Health Secretary said that restrictions were necessary to prevent
“hundreds of thousands of deaths”—[Official Report, Commons, 1/10/20; col. 503.]
I should inform the House that, if this amendment is agreed to, I cannot call any of the other amendments by reason of pre-emption. I call the next speaker, the noble Lord, Lord Hunt of Kings Heath.
My Lords, this promises to be a very important debate, going to the heart of how we are handling this terrible epidemic. I do not support the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, but he is right to pose challenges about the Government’s management of the pandemic, which has been less than consistent. In fact, when one thinks of the Prime Minister’s ducking and weaving, the half promises and the hopes that relaxation will be lifted, it is not surprising that it has not inspired confidence among members of the public; I do not think the impact assessment published yesterday inspired confidence either. It looks very much like a cut-and-paste job, strewn with errors.
A much more accurate assessment of where we are was given in the Financial Times yesterday. It was a very sober analysis, which showed that the UK was spending proportionately more money than any other country in fighting the pandemic, and that we were languishing at the bottom of the league table of economic performance and virus deaths. The conclusion of that analysis is that, essentially, our poor performance came about because we allowed the virus to become prevalent in the spring before enforcing social distancing. That meant that the Government were ultimately forced to impose the more draconian restrictions that undermined the economy so grievously.
The noble Lord referred to the economic difficulties that we will face in generations to come. Noble Lords will know that the OBR said in its central forecast last week that the UK economy was set to shrink by 11.3% in 2020 with a deficit set to hit £394 billion. We are spending more than most G7 countries yet suffering a deeper decline in economic output than any of them —and, sadly, this does not seem to have saved lives, as the current total number of deaths per 100,000 people from coronavirus puts us at the bottom of the international league table. When reviewing the data, Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College, said the errors came in locking down too late in March, allowing the virus to spread in care homes and then delaying a second set of national restrictions well after most scientists had realised this was inevitable.
My Lords, we are debating more than 70 pages of changes to the Covid regulations with only 24 hours’ notice of the detailed impact statement that many sought and with which, as we have already heard from both sides of your Lordships’ Chamber, people are not happy; we heard from the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, that he is particularly unhappy.
From these Benches, we have some differing concerns. Ever since the pandemic made its presence known, we have pushed to follow the best scientific advice. We have pushed Ministers to lock down earlier and have not been heard. We have pushed Ministers to set up an effective test, trace and isolate system locally and fund it right from the start, following the excellent examples set in South Korea, Taiwan and Germany, all of which had a steadier path with Covid-19. Test, trace and isolate, to be kind to the Minster, is still a work in progress. Above all, we have asked for clarity and consistency of message to the public so that each and every one of us can play our part as citizens in the fight against the pandemic.
Despite the apparent reduction in cases because of the lockdown finishing tomorrow, we now face these tougher tiering arrangements. We agree that we have not yet got control of Covid. Perhaps these new arrangements would not have been necessary if the Prime Minister had approved a lockdown three weeks earlier when it was obvious to most of us that we were entering a second wave. People are confused about what they should be doing. A poll a couple of days ago showed that two-thirds of people are worried about how safe they feel under these arrangements.
Although we remain concerned that the Government still have not got a grip on the pandemic, we firmly reject the proposals from others who say that there should be no lockdown arrangements at all. Data yesterday showed a worrying rise in excess deaths. Those with disabilities and learning disabilities still face a particularly tough journey in the pandemic. Can the Minister confirm that those with learning disabilities, many of whom are clinically or extremely clinically vulnerable and appear to fall through the testing net, can now access regular testing?
My Lords, first, I apologise to the Minister because IT problems meant that I could not hear some of his introductory speech. What I did hear, earlier this afternoon, was some of the debate in another place on these regulations. No one listening could be left in doubt about the divisiveness of the proposals before us today, especially in relation to boundaries for the new tiers. These have created a deep sense of injustice and division between regions, areas and communities within regions.
For a variety of understandable reasons, the Government abandoned the clarity and sense of the whole nation being subject to the same constraints that we have had since early November. However, they have patently failed to convince people that the variants in restrictions are properly tailored and appropriate to the situations in the communities in which they live and with which they identify. A lack of respect for local leadership, knowledge and capacity has, I fear, been a recurring feature of the response to Covid, particularly in relation to test, trace and isolate. We must not make the same mistakes when it comes to the rollout of vaccinations.
When the tiers are reviewed on 16 December, I would urge a review of the basis of the boundaries so that they are seen to be more justifiable and fairer, which would engender better compliance. Data is available at the district and borough level on incidents, hospital admissions and all the issues that the Government say they will take into account. This data should be used to produce boundaries based much more on social geography and local conditions than on administrative areas. I recognise that, even if there is greater granularity and that reduces the sense of injustice, it will not eliminate it. The Government need fundamentally to improve the information and communication that they present.
For example, as others have said, the impact statement for today’s debate hardly engenders confidence in the very difficult, nuanced judgments the Minister and his colleagues are making, although I have huge sympathy for them. They can afford to be honest with the population. At the beginning of this pandemic, maybe there were many people who thought there would be an answer—that if they followed “The Science”, we would know what to do. We know that is not the case. We know that we must weigh up a number of factors and balance a number of different harms to try to find the least bad solutions to working our way through this. It is a complex and contested field, and the public are grown up enough to understand that.
My Lords, it is a pleasure and honour to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Hayman, who was the first occupant of the Woolsack when we decided to have a Lord Speaker in your Lordships’ House. She made some incredibly important points. I was sorry we missed part of her peroration; that is a good reason for being in the Chamber rather than Zooming in. I also thought that the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, spoke very movingly and sensitively about those like her who are shielded. She graphically illustrated what a confusing situation we face at the moment.
The noble Baroness referred to the 75-page document we have. Just before I left my office, there came up on the computer a list of things we should do—including read a 79-page description of the 75-page document. It also contained some rather interesting information. It told us who are here that we should not use the restaurants in the House of Lords, where the staff are working so very hard to ensure that we are given sustenance. It also told me that, living in London in tier 2, I can do various things; I can go to a gym—I do not normally—I can go to shops, I can get a tattoo—I do not want one of those—and I can stay in the pub until 11 pm so that I can leave in a staggered way.
That is all from the guidance that came via Conservative Central Office, which also made the point that the Labour Party was playing politics. That is a puerile and stupid accusation. I do not believe the Opposition are playing politics; if the Government think that, the best thing to do is to invite to a COBRA-style regular meeting the leader of the Opposition and the admirable John Ashworth, who has been a very good shadow Secretary of State.
It is exceptionally confusing. I can do all those things in London. I can summon a mechanic if some appliance goes wrong in my flat but I cannot allow either of my sons—one of whom lives in London—to enter it. When I go back to Lincoln, where we are in tier 3, I will be able—I am delighted and grateful for this—to go to the cathedral for services, but there are many other things I cannot do. I can go to a pub only for a takeaway. My son who lives in London will be breaking the law if he delivers Christmas presents to our home in Lincoln on 18 December, but on 22 December he can descend with his whole family for five days.
My Lords, when government Ministers have to spend two days explaining when and how you can eat a Scotch egg to help slow down the transmission of a deadly virus, you know the simplicity of the rules and the clarity of the message, so vital to the task, have been lost. It is an indication of the confusion that has been created by constantly changing the rules that both individuals and businesses must adhere to. This is not helped when the former senior adviser to the Prime Minister clearly broke the rules and the full weight of the Prime Minister’s office was used to defend breaking the law.
People want to do the right thing to protect their loved ones, businesses, jobs and the community they live in. However, listening to people, you get a real sense that they do not understand what they are being asked to do anymore. The Government have complicated not only the message but the rules people must abide by. These regulations, 70 pages long, with nuanced rule after nuanced rule depending on which tier you live in, will cause further confusion.
The next four weeks highlight how this is not about creating a sensible, calm, strategic set of rules to slow the transmission of the virus but a bureaucrat’s dream and Ministers trying to control things from a Whitehall office. On 2 December, we are into tiers and a new set of rules; on 16 December, the tiers are reviewed, and we could have a new set of rules to live and work by; on 23 December, we throw the tiers out, and we can have Christmas; on 27 December, we are back to the tier rules of 16 December; on 30 December, the tiers are reviewed again, and we could have to contend with a further set of rules. In all reality, can the Minister say that potentially having to live under five sets of rules within one month is going to create trust, stability and clarity and give people and businesses the platform to be able to plan their everyday lives as well as fully understand what they are being asked to do to slow the transmission of this deadly virus?
20 of 85 shown
While this drop in the infection rate is encouraging, and confirmation that our national sacrifice has proved successful over the last few weeks, the picture remains varied across the country. That is why we are introducing a framework of regional tiers so that interventions are suited to the situation in any given area. There will be three tiers that apply to the whole country—but, before I go on to them in more detail, I want to spend a moment on the principles that underpin all three.
First, I reassure noble Lords that schools will remain open to protect children’s education and development. Secondly, we will seek to keep as many businesses open and trading as is reasonably possible, to support the people who work within them and the wider economy.
Beyond these core principles, as the winter plan sets out, there are the five key factors in determining the tier of any region: case rates in all age groups, cases among the over-60s in particular, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, the positivity rate and the pressure on the local NHS. When setting boundaries for these tiers, we have looked not only at the human and physical geographies that determine how the virus spreads but at travel patterns and the epidemiological situation in neighbouring areas. We have listened to the public voice, and noble Lords in this Chamber, to fine-tune the system. As a result, people can practise their faith in places of worship, gyms will remain open, outdoor leisure will be permitted and we are doing everything reasonable to allow businesses to remain open.
I turn to the details of each tier. The aim of tier 3 is simple: to bring down the rate of infection when rates are rising too fast. That requires considerable collective effort. Tier 3 will be used only when necessary, in order to protect the NHS and save lives where the virus is threatening to get out of control. Tier 2 is intended rigorously to manage the spread of the virus, restricting indoor mixing outside your household or bubble, although the rule of six will apply outdoors. Hospitality will be open but with restrictions on opening hours and serving alcohol. We want to help all local authorities to move down to tier 1, the least restrictive tier. It has been designed to contain the virus and limit new potential outbreaks. It will apply in areas where efforts to suppress the infection have been successful, and represents a relative return to normality, including for the hospitality sector, although the rule of six for social contact must be maintained.
I reassure noble Lords that the decision to put areas in these tiers was made according to the best possible data and clinical advice. This system offers a sustainable and enduring framework for controlling the virus, as well as offering consistency, stability and clarity on the steps people should take to control the virus. On the effects of these measures, I draw noble Lords’ attention to the evidence paper on the health, economic and social effects of our approach that was published by the Government yesterday. This analysis recognised that:
“The impacts of COVID-19 to date have been significant on health, the economy and society.”
However, it makes clear that:
“Allowing the virus to grow exponentially would lead to”
worse
“impacts, in terms of loss of life and ill health”
and the economy, and
“that would be considered intolerable for society.”
The analysis provided in our paper has been informed by evidence from SAGE and its sub-groups, the ONS, forecasts from the OBR and data on the epidemiology of the virus. As the paper sets out, the balance of evidence supports the need for our tiered approach.
However, the tiers are not the only weapon in our arsenal. We are launching a major community testing programme targeted on the tier 3 areas with the greatest rate of infection. Test and trace will work with local authorities on a plan to get tests to where they are needed most, using military support where helpful and designing their own incentives to attract the right groups. The tier regulations are supported by an increased focus on enforcement and compliance, which is what the local authority enforcement powers regulations are all about.
Throughout, we have listened to and engaged with local authorities to understand how we can support our partners in local government and make sure that they have the right tools in place to ensure that rules are being followed. We know that these are the right tools because our partners in local government helped us to design and build them. The coronavirus improvement notices allow businesses to be given a clear and consistent notice, outlining what changes must be made to meet specific requirements set out in named regulations.
Local authorities will be able to use the notices as an effective tool to communicate with businesses before a fixed penalty notice is issued. These regulations reflect feedback from business and others, who are doing their utmost to support NHS Test and Trace. The changes will support businesses to comply with the legislation while ensuring that NHS Test and Trace has the information it needs to contact people who may have been exposed to the virus.
Finally, by keeping the virus under control through December, the Government can enable everyone to see more of their family and friends over the upcoming festive season. These regulations make provision for extended Christmas bubbles that will allow three households to mix between 23 and 27 December. When following these new rules, it is vital that we continue to take personal responsibility to limit the spread of the virus and protect loved ones, particularly if they are vulnerable. The year 2020 has proved to be an extraordinary one that has brought a lot of hardship and heartache for everyone. With the winter bank holidays on the horizon, we believe it is important that people are able to see some of their family and friends during this time. We have been living with this virus for too long.
As we go into winter, our emphasis is on reducing the pressure on the NHS at a time when hospital admissions are already considerable. Our approach is guided by the need to mitigate the virus as much as possible. We have considered the needs of the British people and are seeking approval here to implement a system that remains uniform and clear, wherever in England you might be. It also provides a proportionate and measured response to the continuing threat of the virus. The tier system is not just a government policy; it is a national endeavour that we must all continue to be active players in, because this virus threatens us all, so we must all play our part in keeping it under control.
I know that these are tough sacrifices at the end of a year of sacrifices but, to continue to be able to protect education and the economy, we must continue to limit our social contact with other people where possible. I commend the hard work and dedication shown by the British public through these trying times. Hope is on the horizon, with new scientific advances being made every day, but we still have further to go. Until science can make us safe, we must put in place these new rules, which will help us to keep the virus under control. I commend these regulations to the House.
Amendment to the Motion
Some were sceptical. If it were true, it would be a ghastly scenario and a consequence of not locking down. Last year, there were 623,000 deaths in the UK—hundreds of thousands; on average, 1,700 deaths each day, each of which is tragic and causes immense pain to family and friends who remain. I suspect that most of us have suffered similar pain.
According to the NHS and ONS statistics, a total of 3,123 people under the age of 60 have died from coronavirus in English hospitals. Of these, 349 did not have known pre-existing conditions. Among the under-40s, a total of 247 people have died from the virus in English hospitals, of whom 46 had no known comorbidities. All these deaths are tragic but, every day, an average of 450 people in the UK die of cancer, approximately half of whom are under 75. Suicide is the biggest killer among men under 45. In England and Wales last year, 2,135 men of that cohort killed themselves. Admittedly, coronavirus has only been recognised for some nine months, but younger people under 40 or 45 seem more likely to die from suicide or cancer than from coronavirus. Indeed, the total deaths attributed to coronavirus are dwarfed by deaths from cancer. To make matters worse, cancer screening and treatment have been curtailed, suicides appear to be on the rise because of isolation, and mental health problems are certainly an increasing concern. If we are destroying our economy to save lives, we should look at all these facts—not vague assertions—and note that the total deaths in England in October were only eight more than in October 2019, which statisticians would call negligible.
Do lockdowns work? Many people suggest not; I do not know. I would imagine that total isolation must surely stop the transmission of infection, but in Leicester, which has been under stringent restrictions similar to lockdown for about five months, it is only now that positive cases are dropping. Why is that? I wonder whether my noble friend the Minister can enlighten me and the House. We were told that hospitals may be overwhelmed without these restrictions. Can the Minister tell us how many hospitals are completely full, and how many beds are occupied above the seasonal norm? Also, how many beds are occupied in the excellent Nightingale hospitals? I have been told that none are.
How many people have actually been infected? I would think that that is a critical statistic in determining policy to combat the virus. The Government’s figure for those who have tested positive is just over 1.6 million, but most people would accept that it must be a lot higher—what with Prince Charles, Prince William, the Prime Minister, half the Cabinet, both my children, et cetera, having had it. Can my noble friend give us any government estimate of the real numbers?
I saw media reports that the average age for Covid deaths in the UK was higher than average life expectancy. This had to be fake news, I thought, but I checked the ONS figures and, indeed, the average age for Covid deaths is 82.4, while average life expectancy is at 81.4. Can my noble friend confirm these figures, and that those dying from coronavirus will actually have lived longer on average than those dying for other reasons?
The Government are in a very difficult position. I understand. This unpleasant virus is highly contagious and killing many people prematurely. I am sorry to hear about my noble friend’s godfather. However, we do not know enough about the virus, so we have to go on the facts. I would be grateful for clear and prompt answers to my questions so that we can see whether there has been any weighing up of costs and benefits.
In the debate on 4 November, it was said that some Peers were putting down amendments to double their speaking times, which seemed “a bit iffy”. It was suggested that some were playing games. I was accused of “having form” in that regard and of disregarding the science. Those of us who really care about our country’s future are not playing games and resent such insulting accusations. Long-standing Members of this House tell me that we should be courteous to each other even when we disagree, so I avoid personal attacks. I just counsel the Member concerned that I have experience of robust comments and can give every bit as good as I get.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer said that we must learn to live with the virus and not fear it. My young female dentist, who I saw in early November, described the second lockdown as “nuts”. I will listen to the Minister’s response, but currently I intend to divide the House, since it seems to me that there has been no adequate analysis of the costs and benefits of this policy.
It is unforgiveable that the Government repeated their error in the autumn. At the 58th meeting of SAGE on 21 September, it was noted that Covid-19 instances were increasing, even though the effects of schools and universities reopening were only just beginning to come through. At that meeting, SAGE asked for a package of interventions including a circuit breaker. As in the spring, however, the Government resisted decisive action.
The advice from SAGE in the run-up to Christmas has once again been clear. It points to the potential threat of substantial mixing of people over a short period of time, representing a significant risk for widespread transmission. This is not the time to relax our guard or underestimate the pressures on the National Health Service.
I would like to suggest an answer to the questions raised by the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, about the NHS. I understand there have been a series of comments from Conservative MPs that the NHS is now under less pressure than it was a year ago and, essentially, has the capacity to cope with more patients from a relaxation of social-distancing rules. The analysis published over the weekend by Chris Hopson from NHS Providers offered a very strong refutation. As he said, the NHS is actually at full stretch, juggling the demands from Covid-related care with urgent and emergency treatment for other conditions. Stringent infection controls are required, so every hospital has to be divided into three areas. That has reduced their capacity from between 5% and 20% depending on the conditions in each local hospital. We know that demand for theatre space is hugely outstripping supply and that trusts in areas of high infection rates are losing large numbers of staff because of self-isolation, family responsibilities and staff falling ill with Covid.
Much of this would not show up in hospital demand and bed occupancy data, but the best guess is that today’s 85% total bed occupancy is the equivalent of the normal 95% rate when the NHS is probably overoccupied and going at full pelt. Similarly, ICU capacity is not a good indicator of hospital provision because it accounts for only a small proportion of a hospital’s total bed capacity, with many more Covid patients now being treated in general wards. As for the Nightingale hospitals, it would be fair to say that they were always intended as a last resort. Also, they do not have the staff there; staff would have to be diverted from our other hospitals, which would reduce the standard of care there, so it really is a last resort.
Frankly, the NHS is at full stretch. It has not yet hit the real winter pressures. Vaccines, more testing and new drugs offer us the way out. This is the last moment we should relax our guard. I should also say that a semblance of competence from the Government might help.
More worryingly, we are picking up reports that young people with learning disabilities at school and college are being charged by their GPs for a letter to set out their specific category to their education institution. The Down’s Syndrome Association told me today that this is not about one or two cases; it is getting reports from all over the country. Shockingly, one young man was charged £38 for a letter to his college. This is disgraceful. Can the Minister take this up urgently and immediately instruct CCGs and GPs not to charge vulnerable young people?
I am afraid that the same is happening to adults with disabilities, who have been asked by their employers to produce evidence that they should work at home. Can the Minister ensure that there is no charge for letters relating to the pandemic for anyone in the clinically vulnerable group?
Finally, I return to one of my regular topics. The Minister knows that I am on the shielding list—now known as the extremely clinically vulnerable list—along with a million other people. Last Thursday, I looked up the new guidance mentioned in passing by the Prime Minister in his announcement a couple of days before about the new tiers. I wanted specifically to look at the advice about Christmas. I have said in your Lordships’ Chamber before that the previous iterations of advice to shielders were verbose—two-page letters with four pages of detailed explanations as an appendix—but they were short memos compared to the new guidance. It is 16 pages long and full of complex advice about tier 1, tier 2, tier 3 and Christmas. Even my eyes, used to reading formal guidance, glazed over. Therefore, I focused on the Christmas advice. As with previous advice, the message was “Please do not mix with people” and the greater risks were repeatedly evident.
Here I have sympathy with the scientists and civil servants writing this document. The Prime Minster wants families to get together. However, the advice is much more cautious. It says:
“If you do decide to form a Christmas bubble it is advised that you maintain social distance from those you don’t normally live with at all times, avoiding physical contact. Everyone should wash their hands regularly and it is important to keep the space where you spend time with those you don’t normally live with well ventilated and to clean touch points regularly, such as door handles and surfaces. You may want to think about who you sit next to, including during meals, and also consider wearing a face covering indoors where social distancing may be difficult as well as encouraging others to do the same.”
Grandma is going to be really popular, going around the house opening windows, wiping doors, wearing her mask and asking to be moved at the table because she is not convinced that Uncle John understands, or cares about, social distancing.
Will any letter to those shielding be made easier to understand and considerably briefer? Will it be available in all accessible forms, including an easy-to-read version for those with learning difficulties, so that everyone shielding can make informed decisions? If the real advice is not to visit family, please can it say so? Just do not show it to the Prime Minister.
I urge that in assessing what boundaries we use and the immediate effects on health—the dangers of Covid and how we protect people from it, as against the longer-term and indirect effects on health and well-being from unemployment and lack of access to normal health services—we respect individuals in our society enough to be frank about how those judgments are made and assessed.
Before I finish, I will say two things. First, most people want to do the right thing; they want to protect themselves and those they love. The Government need to help us do that. They need to empower us with access to testing, by ensuring that the test, trace and isolate systems are effective and working, and by making sure that people do not suffer from being good citizens and obeying what they are asked to do if they have been in contact with others.
Lastly, I was struck by what Dame Sally Davies said yesterday. We ask ourselves all the time why we have seen so many deaths and so much difficulty in coping with this as a country. She pinpointed the underlying public health issues this country faces: deprivation, obesity, dependence on alcohol and the issues that lead to social disadvantage and all that bundle of disadvantages that create ill health and vulnerability. When we review what has happened, I hope we will recognise social injustice as an underlying cause. [Inaudible.] This is not just about PPE but about reversing some of the social injustices in our society.
There is confusion worse confounded wherever you look. It is time the Government trusted the people by giving clear and simple advice. I called for clarity and simplicity four weeks ago as we entered this second lockdown, but we have not had it. We need not the vast number of pages that I and the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, referred to but simple, clear guidance. If the guidance is that it is rather unwise for people to mix together as we normally do at Christmas, then say so clearly and sensibly and trust the people. That is a slogan our party used to have; I do not know what has happened to it.
We are now, as I have said before, living in a benign police state. Indeed, it is not all that benign when the police can issue fines for £10,000 without anybody being on trial. That is, frankly, disgraceful. The police could go into homes—I am sure they will have the good sense not to—and separate families until 22 December and then again on 28 December. We must have clear, simple, unambiguous guidance. Libby Purves wrote a good piece in the Times yesterday in which she said that
“99 per cent of us may not let a friend, relative or neighbour cross our threshold”,
apart from during those five days. It is more than sad—it is tragic—that we have come to this pass.
The Government take our most basic freedoms and demand trust, but they offer none in return. That is why I have tabled a regret Motion calling attention to the contrasts, the lack of simplicity and the lack of clarity. I shall listen to what the Minister says before I decide whether I move that or not, but, frankly, this will not do.
The country requires richer, deeper understanding of the triggers that put an area into a set of restrictions and, just as importantly, the trigger points that release them from the most restrictive rules. The analysis that the Government have provided is not a serious attempt to explain. It is a commentary without the clear evidence that is required for people to understand and plan their lives. I asked the Minister: rather than a broad-brush approach, what empirical evidence will the Government bring forward to show how the triggers are adopted for an area going into and out of a tier?
In Sheffield, we are bewildered as to why we are in tier 3. The latest set of figures indicate we had, on 25 November, 185 cases per 100,000 people. Hospitals are moderately busy but in no way full to capacity. The local Nightingale hospital for Yorkshire and the Humber sits empty; our case rates are falling. Meanwhile, some areas with greater hospital activity, less ICU capacity, higher case rates per head and rising cases have been put in tier 2.
It is also worth noting that the department of the director of public health for Sheffield City Council has written to local care homes suggesting that lateral flow tests are not specific enough and that it is seeking government data and assurance. I ask the Minister: are the Government totally confident that lateral flow tests are safe and reliable enough to be used in care homes so people can visit?
The country has had a £20 billion failing national system. The Government highlight the number of tests, not their quality or the speed of the results. There is a very poor record on tracing and almost a laissez-faire isolation system that keeps leading us back to these types of regulations.
Dealing with this virus does not have to be like this, with ream after ream of confusing emergency law. Some of us have been saying since February that, to minimise disruption, a localised test, trace and isolate system is required. It is now time to do things differently. We need to localise the test, trace and isolate system within a national framework that supports local areas with the expertise and resources to deal with real hard tracing and have proper and resourced community teams supporting people who need to isolate. It needs to be underpinned by a government commitment to reward people for doing their civic and national duty of isolating, like they do in Taiwan, by paying people their full income while they isolate. I ask the Minister if and when this could be done.
The Government need to listen and refocus test, trace and isolate. They need to understand the results that local test, trace and isolate can bring, support that and underpin it with an income guarantee for those who isolate. If this is not done, we will be back here, fortnight after fortnight, confusing people, with the Government taking knee-jerk powers that affect businesses and individuals, causing debt, strain and worry.
We are reaching the end of the path of just nodding through emergency regulations; it is time to review the whole strategic approach of how the country deals with slowing the transmission of the virus, taking from international examples, such as South Korea and Taiwan, about how to minimise disruption by getting a proper local test, trace and isolate system. The Government need to understand that they are now on warning to radically change the way they manage this virus, or future regulations will not be nodded through so easily.