Government Performance against Fiscal Rules

Commons Urgent Question

The following Answer to an Urgent Question was given in the House of Commons on Monday 7 July.

“As the shadow Chancellor knows, it is a long-standing convention of this and previous Governments not to provide a running commentary on a fiscal forecast, and it is for the independent Office for Budget Responsibility to assess performance against the Government’s fiscal rules in its official economic and fiscal forecast. In the most recent forecast, published in March alongside the Spring Statement, the OBR confirmed that the Government were on track to meet their fiscal rules two years ahead of target. It also confirmed that the Government were on track to meet their fiscal rules early in the Budget last autumn.

This is a choice—a responsible choice. When we contrast it with the actions of Conservative Members, who lost control of the public finances, we see working people across the country still paying the price. In line with the usual process, the Chancellor will ask the OBR to produce a new fiscal forecast in the autumn for the annual Budget. That forecast will include an updated assessment of the Government’s performance against their fiscal rules. As the Prime Minister confirmed last week, the Government are committed to their fiscal rules, which remain non-negotiable.

We have seen what happens when fiscal rules are put to one side. Conservative Members may be chuntering from their sedentary positions, but families across the country are still paying the price of the consequences of Liz Truss’s experiment through higher mortgage payments, and we are not going to put the nation’s finances at risk as the Conservatives have done. In contrast, this Government are meeting their fiscal rules and, as a consequence of the Chancellor’s decisions, are investing billions of pounds in the renewal of Britain: in schools, hospitals, affordable homes and public transport and in keeping the nation safe. Any future fiscal plans will be set out at the Budget in the normal way”.

My Lords, we on these Benches accept that fiscal rules are important, and we have noted the Government’s attachment to the current version and the widespread concern as to where they will turn for spending cuts or tax rises, as it is apparent that the rules are not going to be met. Today’s OBR Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report concludes:

“The UK’s public finances have emerged from a series of major global economic shocks in a relatively vulnerable position”.

We have heard from the OBR that the UK Government have the sixth-highest debt, the fifth-highest deficit and the third-highest borrowing costs among 36 advanced economies. In November, the Chancellor wrote to the Economic Affairs Committee in response to its robust and convincing report on the UK’s national debt. She said:

“The Budget took the necessary difficult decisions to put the public finances on a sustainable path—setting realistic plans for public spending while raising revenue—to create the conditions for growth”.

In the light of the dismal and depressing OBR report, does the Minister agree that this Statement and the Government’s entire economic strategy are in tatters and that the Chancellor needs to write another, more realistic letter?

The noble Baroness mentions many things. She mentions debt. Of course, the last Government doubled the national debt. There is one reason why we are where we are. It is because of the last Government losing control of the economy—something that this Government will not do. We will meet our fiscal rules at all times. I am not going to give a running commentary on those fiscal rules. Following the usual process, the Chancellor will ask the OBR to produce a new forecast in the autumn for the annual Budget, which will include an updated assessment of the Government’s performance against the fiscal rules. At that time, we will set out our fiscal plans in the usual way.

My Lords, the Government have constantly asserted that meeting the fiscal rules is non-negotiable. Will the Minister now reassure the House that protecting the NHS and social care is also non-negotiable, and rule out any cuts to those services as the Government try to balance the books? Will he also accept that raising employers’ NICs, especially on small businesses, is actually holding back growth? Will he look instead at what we recommended—raising taxes on the broadest shoulders of the social media giants, the gambling companies and the big banks—to consider some proper relief and support for those small businesses?

I normally try to agree with the noble Baroness, but that is one of the most extraordinary questions I have heard in these debates. She says that we should protect the NHS and then says that we should not have the main measure that is funding the NHS. If she wants the investment in the NHS, she has to stand up for the taxes that fund the NHS.

My Lords, on the fiscal rules, may I suggest the following? First, the welfare budget is far too high and must be substantially reduced. Secondly, economic growth is the only way out of our present mess. Thirdly, heaping taxes on primary wealth producers is highly counterproductive. Fourthly, if additional taxes must be imposed, they are best imposed generally, so that most people can understand the consequences of the policies they support.

I may have agreed with the first half of the noble Viscount’s question; I am not sure I agreed with the second half of it. But, absolutely, the best way to repair the public finances is through economic growth. That is why it is our number one mission.

My Lords, since the 2008 financial crisis, this country has built an unsustainable level of public debt in relation to our GDP, and the cost of servicing that debt is a serious constraint on financing public services. Does the Minister agree that any easing of fiscal rules in those circumstances would run a serious risk of creating another financial crisis, with more hardship? Will he undertake to stick firmly to the rather lax fiscal rules we have, as the Chancellor keeps affirming, and try to put up more stalwart resistance to the left-wing Back-Benchers in his party who seem to have got into the House of Commons in rather considerable numbers?

I slightly disagree with the noble Lord’s characterisation of the Parliamentary Labour Party, but I certainly agree with what he says about the fiscal rules. They are essential to maintaining our ability to invest in our public services. The second fiscal rule absolutely allows the additional investment into our public services, but, as he says and as I have said before, the previous Government doubled the national debt, and we have to fund that. The more that it looks like we will not, the harder it becomes. I give him that undertaking. Our commitment to the fiscal rules is non-negotiable.

My Lords, does the Minister agree that the original purpose of the change in the fiscal rules brought in by his Government was to ensure that we did not have a ball-by-ball commentary, every time there was the remotest whiff of a financial crisis, on whether or not the fiscal rules were being observed? As I understood it, there was going to be a five-year look at the fiscal rules, but, as things stand, it appears that we are going to be subjected constantly to the noble Baroness’s question about whether the Government is complying with them. I thought the whole point about these rules, as they stand, was that that question was unnecessary.

There are two things here: the fiscal framework and the fiscal rules. On the fiscal framework, we have moved to one fiscal event a year, which is the November Budget. There are two fiscal forecasts, in the spring and in the autumn. The noble Lord is absolutely right: we should not give a running commentary on the fiscal forecast. That is, quite properly, for the Office for Budget Responsibility to do. It will do that in the usual way ahead of the annual Budget, and then the Chancellor will make decisions based on that forecast.

The noble Lord talks about the fiscal rules. The one thing I will say is that the changes to the fiscal rules that we made when we came into office were to enable us to invest sustainably in infrastructure and in public services, to stop the cannibalisation of investment to patch up day-to-day spending which we saw under the previous Government. It is interesting that the party opposite has opposed that change to the fiscal rules yet still supports the additional investment that that changed fiscal rule brings. Again, I am not sure that that is entirely consistent.

My Lords, will the Minister rule out following the example of the Truss Government, who crashed the economy? Has he received an apology for being left such a sad state of affairs in the economy that we have inherited?

My noble friend is absolutely right. It is exactly because of the experience of the previous Government—that disastrous Liz Truss mini-Budget, which saw mortgage rates spiral and from which working people are still suffering higher mortgage payments—that it is so important that we maintain fiscal responsibility and why we absolutely continue to adhere to our fiscal rules.

My Lords, today’s OBR report shows that the cost of the pensions triple lock is running three times higher than previously forecast. It is costing over £10 billion a year, and we now know that pensioners, on average, enjoy higher living standards than working-age families. If tough decisions have to be taken to meet the fiscal rules, will the pensions triple lock be reviewed?