Today, I am laying before the House the draft carbon budget 7 order, which sets the seventh carbon budget, for the period from 2038 to 2042, at 535 MtCO2e (equivalent to a ~87% emissions reduction from 1990 levels). This budget represents the next interim target for the UK on the way to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical instability, including the ongoing crisis in the middle east and its implications for global energy markets, the case for setting a clear and credible long-term pathway for the UK on clean energy and climate action is stronger than ever.
The Government have agreed with the independent advice of the Climate Change Committee to set the budget at the level it has advised. This level has been chosen because it:
Reduces the UK’s exposure to volatile international fossil fuel markets and protects billpayers;
Delivers the benefits of clean energy and climate action for jobs and growth, health and our natural environment;
Aligns with the Paris agreement’s 1.5°C goal to avoid climate disaster for future generations.
This level provides a clear basis and early signal for the pathway and pace of action required to remain on track for net zero by 2050.
Parliamentary scrutiny and transparency of the proposed carbon budget 7 level is important, and I support this through the publication of an accompanying impact assessment. The impact assessment sets out the evidence on the likely impacts of different carbon budget levels and the necessary investment required to meet them— much of which reflects upgrades to the UK’s energy system, homes and transport that would be needed in any case to modernise ageing infrastructure and meet future demand.
The impact assessment also shows that even under higher technology-cost assumptions, meeting net zero continues to represent value for money, with strong net benefits relative to alternative pathways. It concludes that the CCC’s recommendation for the seventh carbon budget is the preferred option, as the most credible and balanced option with the strongest overall case.
The detailed evidence in the impact assessment sets out how delivering this ambitious level is a major opportunity to improve people’s lives in the UK today, while protecting our children and grandchildren:
Energy security and lower bills: clean power and electrification will significantly reduce our exposure to volatile international fossil fuel markets across the economy: by 2050, our economy’s overall dependency on fossil fuels will reduce from ~75% of our total primary energy today to ~15%. Electrification will also help consumers benefit from technologies that can cut their bills. Even before the Iran war, it was often cheaper to run a zero-emission vehicle than a petrol or diesel car, and with the right tariff, running a heat pump can be cheaper than a gas boiler.