The following Statement was made in the House of Commons on Thursday 5 March.
“With permission, I will make a Statement about the situation in energy markets in the light of the unfolding conflict in Iran and the Middle East. My thoughts are with the British citizens and those across the world affected by the events of recent days, and I thank members of our Armed Forces serving in the region and elsewhere.
Let me update the House on the situation in global oil and gas markets and the impact on the UK. In the days since the conflict began, we have seen Iran target energy production and export infrastructure across the Gulf. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas is shipped, has declined very significantly, and the Iranian regime has issued reckless and unjustified threats to all ships using it. LNG production has also been halted in Qatar, following unjustified and indiscriminate Iranian attacks at the start of the week.
The UK benefits from strong and diverse energy supplies, including our own North Sea production, pipelines with Norway, interconnectors with continental Europe and three LNG terminals. While Qatar is a major supplier of LNG globally, last year it provided the UK with 1% of our gas supply. I have been in touch with National Gas and the National Energy System Operator, which are confident about our security of supply. On oil, we hold substantial emergency and commercial stocks and stand ready to work with the International Energy Agency to support the stability of oil markets if needed. As when Russia invaded Ukraine, though, we will be exposed to price competition in international oil and gas markets, which is pushing up wholesale prices as other countries seek to replace lost supplies from the region. That reflects our position, regardless of our domestic production, as a price taker not a price maker in these markets, leaving us exposed to their volatility, no matter where the fossil fuels come from.
The Government continue to monitor the situation closely and work with our international partners. In recent days I have had multiple conversations with the executive director of the IEA, as well as with my counterparts in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the EU and our major UK oil and gas producers. I will be having further calls with our international allies and partners over the coming days. This is a fast-moving situation, and we continue to work with our allies to seek to minimise the impact of disruption to markets and support the safe passage of oil and gas across the world.
I know that families and businesses across the country will see these global events and be concerned about the impact on their energy bills and the cost of living. It is important to say that the energy price cap will provide protection for households until the start of July, regardless of developments in the Middle East. Last week, Ofgem confirmed that as a result of the Chancellor’s decisions in the Budget, the price cap will fall by 7%, or £117 annually, for the period covering April to June. The price cap for that period is fixed and will not change. That is a direct result of decisions in the Budget by my right honourable friend the Chancellor to raise taxes on the wealthiest, and to cut bills for families across Britain. In addition, around 6 million families are benefiting from our expansion of the £150 warm home discount, and we are delivering the biggest investment in home upgrades in British history through our warm homes plan, to cut bills and shield families from these kinds of fossil fuel shocks.
On business and industry, we are taking action to expand the British industry supercharger from April to reduce costs for the most energy-intensive businesses, and a significant proportion of businesses are on fixed-term contracts that shield them from market volatility for the contract duration. However, we recognise that at the point of contracting, businesses are exposed to international fossil fuel markets, and clearly, for both businesses and consumers, much will depend on the length of this crisis.
On Tuesday in her Spring Statement, my right honourable friend the Chancellor reaffirmed her commitment to prioritise families and businesses, whatever turbulence we see around the world. She showed her determination to act on bills in the Budget last year, and as we continue to monitor the effects of these events, the House and country should be in no doubt that the Prime Minister’s No. 1 priority is to tackle the cost of living crisis that affects families across Britain. However long this crisis lasts, we must learn the right long-term lessons. The events of recent days are yet another reminder that the only route to energy security and sovereignty for the UK is to get off our dependence on fossil fuel markets, whose prices we do not control, and on to clean homegrown power that we do control.
Only several weeks ago, some people were suggesting that we should gamble on low fossil fuel prices and cancel the allocation round 7 renewables auction. When I made my Statement on that auction, I warned the House that people can have incredibly short memories, given that we are just four years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I warned at the time that it was a foolish and dangerous gamble to bet on geopolitical stability during greater geopolitical instability than at any time for generations. I warned that the Opposition had failed to learn lessons from the Ukraine crisis, which caused the worst cost of living crisis in memory, and that a dogma of opposing clean energy would damage this country, and risk families and businesses being left to pick up the bill. The events of recent days have unfortunately shown why that would be such a dangerous and reckless strategy, and we will continue to reject it. Instead, our AR7 renewables auction alone will supply enough homegrown, secure, clean power for the equivalent of 16 million homes. That is power we will not have to source from the international gas market, power that will not be at the mercy of international events, and power over which we, not fossil fuel markets, have control.
Of course, North Sea production continues to play an important and valuable role in our energy system, but as we learn the right lessons from this crisis, this Government will not succumb to the false arguments peddled by some. It is a maturing basin and accounts for less than 0.7% of global oil and gas production. New exploration licences are completely marginal to that basin, and would make no difference to prices set by international markets and paid by UK bill payers.
‘More UK production wouldn’t reduce the global price of gas’—
those are not my words, but those of the former Energy Minister Greg Hands in 2022, in the midst of the last energy crisis. Indeed, the shadow Energy Secretary said in 2023 that new licences
‘wouldn’t necessarily bring energy bills down’.
This Government have taken the decision to keep existing fields open for their lifetime, including through transitional energy certificates in our North Sea future plan, as called for and welcomed by industry. They have also decided not to issue new licences to explore new fields, which the science tells us is the right thing to do, because this Government will not ignore the biggest long-term threat multiplier to our security and stability that we face: the climate crisis.
As the Prime Minister said yesterday, for Labour Members the lesson of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lesson of recent days, is that our mission is the only route to greater energy independence for Britain, and we will double down on it. Every solar panel we install, every wind turbine we put up, and every nuclear power station we build makes us more secure as a country, and protects families and businesses from those kinds of energy shocks.
This Government have learned the lessons of the geopolitical instability we have seen and continue to see. In an unstable world, we will keep driving for energy sovereignty and abundance with clean homegrown power. We will not gamble with the British people’s money at the fossil fuel casino, and ignore the lessons of the past. We have shown a determination to act to help families, and we will continue to do so. We will work with our allies and partners to defend our national interest, and seek to bring this conflict to an end for the benefit of citizens at home and the stability of the world, and I commend this Statement to the House”.
My Lords, I declare my interests as chair of Amey, Acteon and Buckthorn.
This Statement comes at a time when the United Kingdom faces major, unparalleled challenges to its energy supply. For 50 years, under successive Conservative and Labour Governments, energy policy has been built on the four pillars of security of supply, diversity of supply to back that security, stronger adherence to ever-improving environmental measures, and, above all, affordability. On all four tests, this Statement fails, and the current war in Iran exposes that the Government’s energy policy is uniquely vulnerable to international supply chains, unaffordable to industry and households alike, glaringly insecure and unashamedly reliant on putting intermittent power before the firm power needed to keep incubators in our hospitals running 24/7, 365.
The Statement argues that there is no point drilling in the North Sea because all our gas is sold on international markets. Does the Minister agree that this is nonsense? Every molecule of gas we extract from the North Sea goes straight into our pipes, making up around half the UK’s supply. Does the Minister agree with the North Sea operators and OEUK that data already submitted to government details 111 named projects, equivalent to £50 billion of investment, that could be unlocked with tax and regulatory reform? On security of supply, we are increasingly vulnerable. Does the Minister accept that we have one pipeline coming to the UK from Norway alone, which is responsible for 30% of our gas supply? As the eminent economist Dieter Helm stated, is this not a sitting duck for a hostile power or an obvious hit for drones in the North Sea?
Does the Minister agree that onshore economically, the UK is facing the highest industrial power prices in the world, crippling our industry and increasing our cost of living? Does he agree that we are failing our energy-dependent industries because we have unaffordable energy prices? Gone is most of the steel industry. Deeply damaged is the fertiliser industry. Through the imposition of additional energy costs this year, the ceramics industry is under threat, as are petrochemicals and refined fuels.
My Lords, I thank the Minister for the Statement on the very serious and fast-moving situation in the Middle East. The recent escalation in the Gulf following President Trump’s deeply destabilising actions risks widening the conflict. Fourteen countries are now directly affected, global shipping supply routes are shut, and once again oil and gas prices have skyrocketed because of geopolitical chaos. With tragic inevitability, the same man who denies the existence of climate change has unleashed another conflict for the control of fossil fuels. If this conflict is not urgently contained, it will shut down oil fields and disrupt global markets, and drive up oil and gas prices, food prices, inflation and government debt alike. We need an urgent halt to the targeting of energy and desalination facilities on all sides.
We have been here before. Despite the progress we are making on our energy transition, the UK remains frighteningly exposed to the harsh economic impacts of global events far beyond our shores. The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit and E3G estimate that our reliance on fossil fuels has cost this country an additional £183 billion since 2022, because of the increased costs of energy as a result of the war in Ukraine. We cannot afford another lost decade of dependence on global fossil fuels that we neither control nor influence.
While much of the Minister’s Statement is welcome—the co-ordination with allies, reassurance on supply, and commitment to clean power—the real question is whether this Government will now act at the speed and scale the crisis demands. Unlike the last energy crisis, this one includes oil as well as gas. We on these Benches see the Conservatives’ claim that the solution lies in new North Sea licences as the equivalent of trying to fill a swimming pool via a drinking straw. North Sea gas production is down by two-thirds since 2000. It is set to have declined by 97% by 2050, and even with new licences it will decline by 95%.
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Turning to capacity, does the Minister agree that we already need twice the capacity, twice the grid and all the batteries and storage we can find, plus many more interconnectors, to service a level of power demand of about 45 gigawatts? We used to meet that comfortably with just 60 gigawatts of capacity. Does he not recognise that all this is because we must have therm power available on days like today when the wind does not blow? Only 16% of our electricity was generated from wind today—only double that from the heavily polluting, burning biomass of 7 million tonnes of wood pellets a year in Drax.
Turning to renewables, does the Minister agree that there was good reason for the late publication of the secret MoU between the Secretary of State and the Chinese Government? It demonstrated that not just our renewable energy policy but our overall energy policy is tethered to China, a country which burns more than 55% of the world’s coal and is building another 400 gigawatts of coal generation. Yet our imports of solar panels are nearly 100% imported from China and demonstrate our serious reliance on a foreign state, not least because, as the Minister said from the Dispatch Box recently, he cannot be sure that the solar panels being installed in our schools are not made by slave labour.
Does the Minister agree with me that we need a policy built on renewables and more North Sea gas—not renewables instead of gas? Does he also agree that energy security and affordability depend on a substantial increase in gas from the North Sea, not imported LNG, which has gone up 40% year on year and which, in its total life cycle, emits nearly twice the levels of carbon compared with North Sea gas? The Government need to secure our own gas reserves, first, by a fiscal and regulatory regime which immediately encourages more tiebacks and greater exploitation of existing reserves, then by a licensing regime which ensures that production comes on stream at the same time as new-build nuclear.
None of what I have said this evening is anti-renewable; indeed, when I was Minister for Energy, I launched the first renewables non-fossil fuel obligation and for many years I was president of the British Wind Energy Association. I have set out a direction through which the UK is more energy secure, not less, with more affordable and environmentally acceptable energy; and through which it is more prosperous, with more jobs for working people, greater economic confidence, higher growth and a lower cost of living.
On oil-related issues, I want to ask about rural constituents who rely on heating oil to heat their homes. Some 1.5 million rural homes and 62% of homes in Northern Ireland depend on it. Prices have rocketed: in some cases, they have nearly doubled. These consumers are the forgotten victims of energy policy, not covered by Ofcom regulation and therefore without price protection and redress. Will the Government now work with the CMA and Ofgem to establish proper oversight, investigate price abuses and ensure that these households are protected?
Disruption to supplies arising from the Gulf crisis has also pushed up the cost of aviation kerosene by more than 80%. What consideration is being given to resilience, as 70% of our kerosene is imported, and how are the Government mitigating escalating costs for consumers and operators alike? On the cost of electricity and gas, we have some stability with the energy price cap, but that is short lived. While our gas supply is more secure than that of oil, gas prices have already reached a 12-month high. There is a very real risk of a renewed cost-of-living squeeze later this year, placing further pressure on families and businesses who are struggling to pay their bills.
The Government must make plans for scenarios where prices stay high and new interventions will be required. Families and businesses deserve reassurance that the Government’s support will not vanish if the crisis endures. I ask the Minister to give that reassurance today. These events bring into sharp relief the deeper issue: the structure of our energy market. Despite our work on renewables, UK consumers remain uninsulated from the global fossil-fuel markets, as our energy market has not been reformed to reflect the increase in renewables uptake. Three years on, we have been told repeatedly that energy market reform is coming. The Government have ruled out the introduction of zonal pricing, but this crisis is a clarion call that urgent action is needed. Why are we still funding crucial decarbonisation and social/environmental levies through household bills rather than general taxation? Moving more of those policy costs into general taxation would help to make the system fairer and more equitable. Will the Government commit to reviewing this balance?
Our gas storage capacity—just 12 days—remains among the lowest in Europe, so will the Minister consider the case for a greater strategic reserve? The price of gas still sets the UK electricity price 97% of the time. Do the Government agree with Greenpeace’s call to bring gas plants into a regulated asset base, creating a strategic reserve administered by NESO to break the link and save customers an estimated £5.2 billion by 2028?
We must double down on the rollout of renewable energy, grid upgrades, long-term storage, diversity of supply and greater energy interconnection with Europe, so that we can gain energy security and price control. Investors need predictability on planning, on grid connection and on the carbon pricing framework. Britain must move to a continuous pipeline of renewable projects: built faster, connected sooner and supported by modernised transmission networks. Every insulated home, every electrified heat pump and every community-scale battery gives us energy independence.
True energy security for Britain will not be won in the North Sea. It will be won on our rooftops, in our grids, in our offshore wind fields and in our insulated homes. If this latest conflict teaches us anything, it is that energy dependence is a choice, and energy independence through clean energy must now become our utmost mission.