Mr Speaker, the central responsibility of any Government is to do what is necessary for economic stability. Behind the decisions we take and the issues on which we vote are jobs that families depend on, mortgages that have to be paid, savings for pensioners, and businesses investing for the future. We are a country that funds our promises and pays our debts. When that is questioned, as it has been, the Government will take the difficult decisions necessary to ensure that there is trust and confidence in our national finances. That means decisions of eye-watering difficulty, but I give the House and the public this assurance: every single one of those decisions, whether reductions in spending or increases in tax, will be shaped through core compassionate Conservative values that will prioritise the needs of the most vulnerable. That is why I pay tribute to my predecessors for the energy price guarantee, for the furlough scheme and, indeed, for earlier decisions to protect the NHS budget in a period in which other budgets were being cut.
I want to be completely frank about the scale of the economic challenge that we face. We have had short-term difficulties, caused by the lack of a forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility alongside the mini-Budget, but there are also inflationary and interest pressures around the world. Russia’s unforgivable invasion of Ukraine has caused energy and food prices to spike. We cannot control what is happening in the rest of the world, but when the interest of economic stability means that the Government need to change course we will do so, and that is what I have come to the House to announce today.
In my first few days in the job, I have held extensive discussions with the Prime Minister, Cabinet colleagues, the Governor of the Bank of England, the OBR, the head of the Debt Management Office, Treasury officials and many others. The conclusion I have drawn from those conversations is that we need to do more more quickly to give certainty to the markets about our fiscal plans and to show through action and not just words that the United Kingdom can and always will pay our way in the world. We have therefore decided to make further changes to the mini-Budget immediately rather than waiting until the medium-term fiscal plan in two weeks’ time, in order to reduce unhelpful speculation about those plans.
I am very grateful for your agreement, Mr Speaker, about the need to give the markets an early brief summary this morning, and I welcome the opportunity to give this House details of those decisions now. We have decided on the following changes to support confidence and stability. First, the Prime Minister and I agreed yesterday to reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan three weeks ago that have not been legislated for in Parliament. We will continue with the abolition of the health and social care levy, changes to stamp duty, the increase in the annual investment allowance to £1 million and the wider reforms to investment taxes, but we will no longer be proceeding with the cuts to dividend tax rates, saving around £1 billion a year; the reversal of the off-payroll working reforms introduced in 2017 and 2021, saving around £2 billion a year; the new VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK visitors, saving a further £2 billion a year; or the freeze on alcohol duty rates, saving around £600 million a year. I will provide further details—[Interruption.]
I will provide further details on how alcohol duty rates will be uprated shortly.
Secondly, the Government are currently committed to cutting the basic rate of income tax to 19% in April of 2023. It is a deeply held Conservative value, a value that I share, that people should keep more of the money they earn, which is why we have continued with the abolition of the health and social care levy. But at a time when markets are asking serious questions about our commitment to sound public finances, we cannot afford a permanent discretionary increase in borrowing worth £6 billion a year. I have decided that the basic rate of income tax will remain at 20%, and it will do so indefinitely until economic circumstances allow for it to be cut. Taken together with the decision not to cut corporation tax and restoring the top rate of income tax, the measures I have announced today will raise about £32 billion every year.
The third step I am taking today is to review the energy price guarantee. That was the biggest single expense in the growth plan and one of the most generous schemes in the world. It is a landmark policy for which I pay tribute to my predecessor, my right hon. Friend the Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng), and it will support millions of people through a difficult winter, reducing inflation by up to 5%. I confirm today that the support we are providing between now and April next year will not change, but beyond next April the Prime Minister and I have reluctantly agreed that it would not be responsible to continue to expose the public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices. I am announcing today a Treasury-led review into how we support energy bills beyond April of next year. The review’s objective is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned while ensuring enough support for those in need. Any support for businesses will be targeted at those most affected and a new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency.
As I regularly say now, I welcome the new Chancellor to his place. He is the fourth in four months of chaos and fiasco as this Conservative Government spiral down the political plughole. But the damage has been done: this is a Tory crisis made in Downing Street, but ordinary working people are paying the price. All that is left, after these humiliating U-turns, are higher mortgages for working people and higher bonuses for bankers. The Government’s climbdown on energy support begs the question yet again why they will not extend the windfall tax on energy producers to help to foot the bill.
It is good to finally see the Prime Minister in her place and not, as the Leader of the House had to assure us earlier, under a desk. But what is she left with? She has no authority, no credibility and no plan for growth. It is clear to see that the people who caused the chaos cannot be the people to fix the chaos. They are out of ideas, out of touch and out of time.
The Prime Minister should have spoken to the House today, but we know that she could not do that with a shred of credibility, given that the survival of this Government now depends on smashing to smithereens everything that she stands for. Now she is attempting to reverse everything that she campaigned on—it is not just impossible; it is absurd. The Prime Minister is barely in office and she is certainly not in power. Only five days ago, the Prime Minister said at Prime Minister’s questions that there would be “absolutely” no public spending reductions, but after what we heard from the Chancellor today, every single public service is again at risk from the Conservatives—from our NHS nurses to our schools and our servicemen and women—with the country paying the price for the Conservatives’ incompetence.
The Prime Minister said that she had an energy package for two years. Now that is being withdrawn on the very day it is supposed to be legislated for. She insisted that her Conservative mini-Budget would lead the country to the promised land. Instead it has led to the highest mortgages in 15 years and emergency interventions by the Bank of England to protect pensions. Then on Friday, there was the unedifying spectacle of the then Chancellor being dragged back from the IMF before he could do any more damage to our economy. So she has turned to a new Chancellor, who finished eighth out of eight in the Tory leadership contest, winning just 18 votes from MPs. The Tories have run out of credibility and now they are running out of Chancellors.
I thank the hon. Lady for her questions, and I am sorry that, given the speed with which things moved at the weekend, I have not had time to sit down with her one to one as would normally be the practice before parliamentary exchanges.
I understand the role Opposition parties play—I have stood at that Dispatch Box myself—but behind the rhetoric, and I was listening very carefully, I do not think the hon. Lady disagreed with a single one of the decisions I announced to Parliament, and that is important for the country and markets to know. I think there is also agreement on the process of policy making. I support the independence of the Bank of England, introduced by Gordon Brown, and I know the hon. Lady supports the independence of the Office for Budget Responsibility, set up by George Osborne. The whole Government support the independence of those two important institutions.
I fully accept—I do not think I could have been clearer—that we have had to change some decisions made in the last few weeks, but I reject wholeheartedly the hon. Lady’s broader narrative about Conservative economic management. Let me remind her that the UK’s unemployment rate is the lowest since 1974; it is lower than that of France, Italy, Canada, Belgium, Sweden, Spain and the Netherlands and is massively lower than in 2010. Let me remind her that since 2010 our growth rate has been the third highest in the G7 —[Interruption.] She may not want to hear this, but these are the economic facts. Our growth rate since this party came into power has been higher than that of Germany, France, Italy and Japan and has been faster than that of any G7 country this year. Looking to the future, we have the largest technology sector in Europe and more foreign direct investment than anywhere in Europe bar one country. That is a legacy to be proud of.
I was listening carefully for some questions about the measures I announced, but the hon. Lady did not ask any and I think she agrees with them. I will pick her up on one point, however. She talked about the NHS; let me tell her—[Interruption.] Maybe they do not want to listen about the NHS. She talked about the NHS: because of the global financial crisis, which happened on her party’s watch, the NHS went through one of its most difficult periods ever, yet this party protected the NHS budget, and then in 2017 we were able to give it its biggest single increase in funding, because of the difficult decisions we took and the hon. Lady’s party opposed.
I welcome my right hon. Friend’s statement. It was both frank and bold, and it appears—in the very short term, at least—to have steadied the markets. One point that he raised at the Dispatch Box—although it was absent from his statement earlier today—was his renewed commitment to our financial institutions, and in particular the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility. He has also brought forward the economic advisory council, a number of whose members have appeared before the Treasury Committee; I think that he has chosen well. Will he reassure the House that the economic advisory council will not in any way conflict with the Bank of England, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Financial Conduct Authority, the Prudential Regulation Authority or any of our institutions and that it will be there to complement and not work against any of them?
I thank my right hon. Friend, who in recent weeks has spoken wisely about the difficult issues that we face. I can absolutely give him that assurance. I want, to be frank, to ensure that I am getting advice from fantastic institutions such as the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, but also advice that is independent of those institutions, because that is how we will get the best result. Rupert Harrison in particular has enormous experience of running the Treasury under George Osborne over many years, and I think that he will make an important contribution, as will his colleagues on the council.
With respect to the markets, my right hon. Friend is absolutely right to be cautious about what happens. They go up as well as they go down, and no Government can—or should seek to—control the markets. What we can do is the thing that is within our power, which is a very firm and clear commitment to fiscal responsibility.
Thank you, Mr Speaker—[Interruption.] I see that the Prime Minister has urgently run off to something else rather than stay to listen.
When the previous Chancellor came to give his mini Budget three long weeks ago, I called it economic chaos. What an understatement that turned out to be. I am not sure that words have yet been invented to describe the scale of unmitigated disaster which the Prime Minister and her Chancellors have created in the past 24 days. We are back where we started but significantly worse off due to Tory incompetence. Is it not just as well that, in Scotland, the Scottish Government did not take Tory MPs’ advice to copy and paste from here before Government Front Benchers delete all? People will be paying the price for many years to come through higher interest and borrowing rates. Will the Chancellor apologise for the increased costs that his colleagues have inflicted on people? He has not been clear at all, so will he confirm the status of the bankers’ bonus cap—has it been scrapped or not?
There is little by way of detail from the current Chancellor about doubling down on austerity and what that will mean for people. However, the Institute for Government and the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy have been clear that there is no fat left to cut after a lost decade for public services under the Tories. Where does the current Chancellor expect to make these cuts or “efficiency savings”? We know what he means when he says that. We already know the terrible price of austerity, because the Glasgow Centre for Population Health has attributed 330,000 excess deaths to Tory austerity policies: an unacceptable human cost. Again and again, the Tories bring forward harmful policies that they never feel the consequences of.
We know that guarantees mean nothing under the Tories, either. The so-called energy price guarantee turns out to be for six months, not two years, with a cliff edge looming next April. National Energy Action has said:
It is a pleasure to exchange comments with the hon. Lady and I look forward to working with her closely in the months ahead. I remind her that this Conservative Government are spending £37 billion this year to support people across the United Kingdom with cost of living concerns. That is possible because of difficult economic decisions that the SNP has opposed at nearly every stage, and that includes large support for businesses up and down the country. The main thing I would say to her very gently is that she cannot claim to be concerned about the economic turmoil of the last few weeks when the central policy of the SNP—independence—would leave turmoil for Scotland not for a few weeks but for many, many years to come: a new currency; somehow finding a way to trade with the UK internal market but also the European single market; border checks between England and Scotland, as announced today by the First Minister; and a massive gap in public finances that would have to be breached. That is a recipe for precisely the austerity she says she is worried about. Let me say this: if we want economic stability and if Scotland wants economic stability, to coin a phrase we are stronger together.
I will publish the economic forecasts from the OBR when I make my statement in a fortnight’s time. I think it is better for me to wait until I hear that. The proper answer to my right hon. Friend’s question is that what we are seeking is a long-term sustainable increase in the economic growth rate. That is a central policy of the Prime Minister, which has my wholehearted support.
I think the country is feeling a sense of relief that trickle-down economics this time has been so quickly abandoned, but there was one element in the mini-Budget that the new Chancellor did not address: investment zones. We have great evidence all over the place about how, as a mechanism for encouraging growth, jobs and prosperity, that has failed from the Thatcher years onward. All that happens is that they are incredibly expensive, we lose income from them, they only lead to the transfer of jobs from one poor area to another, and they are a massive opportunity for every kleptocrat, oligarch and criminal to launder money into the UK. Will the Chancellor abandon that policy, too?
I have a great deal of respect for the campaigning the right hon. Lady has done over many years against people illicitly hiding wealth and not paying their share of tax. I totally support the benefits that investment zones can bring, but we will implement that policy in a way that learns the lessons of when similar models have been tried in the past and we will make sure they are successful.
I welcome the return of an iron-clad fiscal responsibility, albeit within the most velvet of gloves, for there can be no growth without economic credibility. Will my right hon. Friend answer this question? When, in a fortnight, he brings forward the forecasts made independently by the OBR, will he guarantee that they will show debt falling as a proportion of our income and that once we have the finances fully under control we will not be borrowing for day-to-day spending, because we cannot put the nation’s spending on the never-never?
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There remain, I am afraid, many difficult decisions to be announced in the medium-term fiscal plan on 31 October when, I confirm, we will publish a credible, transparent and fully costed plan to get debt falling as a share of the economy over the medium term based on the judgment and economic forecasts of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. I would like to thank the OBR, whose director, Richard Hughes, I met this morning, and the Bank of England, whose Governor, Andrew Bailey, I have now met twice. I fully support the vital independent roles that both institutions play, which give markets, the public and the world confidence that our economic plans are credible and rightly hold us to account for delivering them.
I also want more independent expert advice as I start my journey as Chancellor, so today I am announcing the formation of a new economic advisory council to do just that. This council will advise the Government on economic policy, with four names announced today: Rupert Harrison, a former chief of staff to the Chancellor of the Exchequer; Gertjan Vlieghe from Element Capital; Sushil Wadhwani of PGIM Wadhwani; and Karen Ward of J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
We remain completely committed to our mission to go for growth, but growth requires confidence and stability, which is why we are taking many difficult decisions—starting today. But while we do need realism about the challenges ahead, we must never fall into the trap of pessimism. Despite all the adversity and challenge we face, there is enormous potential in this country, with some of the most talented people, three of the world’s top 10 universities, the most tech unicorns in Europe, one of the world’s great financial centres, and incredible strengths in the creative industries, science, research, engineering, manufacturing and innovation.
All that gives me genuine optimism about our long-term prospects for growth, but to achieve that, it is vital that we act now to create the stability on which future generations can build. The reason the United Kingdom has always succeeded is because, at big and difficult moments, we have taken tough decisions in the long-term interests of the country, and in a way that is consistent with compassionate Conservative values, that is what we will do now. I commend this statement to the House.
The latest office holder has been in the Cabinet for nine of the past 12 years, at the centre of a Government responsible for low growth and weakened public services, with him responsible for helping run the NHS into the ground. He was a big part of austerity season 1, and now he says the cure is austerity season 2. What was the Chancellor’s flagship policy in his own short-lived leadership contest? It was to reduce corporation tax in a totally unfunded manner, and not from 25% to 19%. The right hon. Gentleman called for it to be lowered to 15%, with not a single explanation of how it was to be paid for. The truth is that had he won the contest and implemented these policies, we would be in an even worse place than we are now. There is no mandate and no authority for any of this.
The Conservatives have put a lasting premium on people’s mortgages. Uncosted borrowing has sent interest rates spiralling. Millions of people’s mortgage deals will be coming to an end in the next few months, leaving many families forking out £500 more a month. People will be paying a Tory mortgage premium for years to come, so how does the Chancellor think ordinary people can possibly afford any more of this Conservative Government? We have heard no answers today. The Chancellor has said that growth requires “confidence and stability”. I agree, but where does he think the lack of confidence and stability has come from? It did not come from the sky; it came from the mini-Budget three weeks ago.
What does it say about our country that we are watching borrowing costs hour by hour? That is not the sign of a strong G7 economy; it is the exact opposite. Businesses are now saying that things are so unstable they are pausing investment here in Britain. The former deputy governor of the Bank of England Charles Bean has outlined the extraordinary damage that the Conservatives have done to our standing. In his words,
“we’ve moved from looking not too dissimilar from the US or Germany…to looking more like Italy and Greece.”
What a mess.
Where is the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast? Have this Government learnt nothing? Does the Chancellor really expect the country to take everything from him at face value? Last week, the Business Secretary was busy undermining the Office for Budget Responsibility. Today, we have received another massive fiscal statement with no forecast. What have this Government got to hide? They should publish the numbers so that we know the true state of the public finances after 40 days of this Prime Minister and after 12 years of Conservative Governments.
Today, the Chancellor has scaled back help with energy bills for families and pensioners. It prompts the question yet again: why will the Government not bring in a proper windfall tax on energy producers to help foot the bill for consumers, and when will the current Chancellor publish in full the Government’s estimates of the windfall profits of the energy giants over the next two years?
No one was talking about spending cuts until the Tories crashed the economy with their mini-Budget, so I ask the Chancellor: why should the British people pay the economic price for the Tories’ mistakes, and what spending cuts do the Government plan to make? We believe that the Government must honour their commitments to uprate benefits and pensions in line with inflation. Will the Chancellor make it clear today that is what he intends to do? What a contrast that cuts to benefits are still on the table, but the one thing the Chancellor could not bring himself to reverse today was lifting the cap on bankers’ bonuses. Why is this the last policy standing in this disastrous mini-Budget?
Let me come to credibility. Does the Chancellor accept that once credibility and trust have been destroyed, they cannot simply be regained by a series of zig-zagging, chaotic U-turns? Will he and the Prime Minister apologise for the costs and anxieties laid on families? Can he admit once and for all that the market turmoil we are in was directly caused by the disastrous decisions of his predecessor and of the Prime Minister? Can he guarantee that the Bank of England will not have to intervene again to save the Government, and what guarantee can he give people about their pensions, their mortgages and their household bills?
The Chancellor said today that everything is now on the table, but is that really the case? We know that abolishing the non-dom tax status will raise £3 billion a year, yet there was no mention of that. How can it be right that some of the richest individuals in society are allowed to buy their way out of paying the tax that should be paid here Britain? This would not be an eye-wateringly difficult decision, so why do not the Government just do it?
There is lasting damage which these policy U-turns will not change. They have set fire to everything; now they insist it is all fine. The truth is that an arsonist is still an arsonist even if he runs back into a burning building with a bucket of water. Because they cannot be trusted; the Tories are clinging on for themselves, regardless of the cost to the country.
Trickle-down economics will always fail; what drives forward our economy are the talents and efforts of millions of working people and thousands of ordinary businesses. The Government’s economic credibility has been destroyed. They have harmed our economic institutions, people are paying higher mortgages; the same set of people doing U-turns is not going to fix it. The only way to change this is a real change of Government.
In conclusion, we inherited the financial crisis, we dealt with the global pandemic, and we have led the world in support of Ukraine, all possible because of difficult decisions taken over the last 12 years, each and every one opposed by the party opposite. So if the hon. Lady is preaching today the need for fiscal credibility, which I warmly welcome, may I just tell her this: the true test will be in two weeks’ time, to see whether she supports public spending restraint? I have showed Conservatives can raise taxes; will she show Labour is willing to restrain spending?
“Many vulnerable people were holding on by their fingertips. Government has to be very, very careful it doesn’t prise them away.”
Will the Chancellor tell us exactly what will happen for households in April? The scale of increases makes almost everybody vulnerable—except, perhaps, his banker pals. What will happen to the most vulnerable when inflation soars as a result of the return of spiralling energy costs?
The previous Chancellor never got round to telling me what will happen to businesses’ energy costs at the end of their six-month reprieve. Will the current Chancellor tell me what support businesses signing impossibly expensive contracts as we speak can expect? Will he, as the former, former, former Chancellor did, commit to uprating benefits with the rate of inflation? Will he also increase support for those languishing in the asylum system and end the punishing “no recourse to public funds” regime? Will he cancel the benefit cap and scrap the two-child limit, which is trapping so many children in poverty? Where is his compassion for them?
Will the Chancellor invest in renewables, carbon capture and storage, and a comprehensive energy-efficiency and insulation package? Does he really understand, when looking at broken Britain, the chaos that the Tories have wreaked and the prospect of a bleak Brexit future under both Labour and the Tories, that more and more of Scotland’s people are looking at the comprehensive independence prospectus set out by the First Minister today and moving towards the vision of a fairer, greener, more prosperous Scotland back in the heart of Europe where we belong?