Economic Situation

(Urgent Question): To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on the current economic crisis.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer is in Washington, having meetings with the IMF, and is—[Interruption.]—which have been—[Interruption.]—routine meetings, which have been long scheduled.

Order. I know it is the first Wednesday back; we are all excitable. Let us have a little calm, so that I can hear the Minister. Come on, Minister.

Thank you, Mr Speaker. They are routine meetings that have been long scheduled, and are certainly not a cause for exuberance or over-excitement from the Opposition.

As we know, the world has faced surging energy prices since Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. We have seen very high inflation across the western world, and we have seen a cycle of increasing interest rates across western economies as well—across many western economies. But let me reassure the House that the fundamentals of the United Kingdom’s economy remain resilient. Unemployment, at 3.5%, is the lowest it has been in my lifetime—and for the record, I was born in 1976. Economic growth last year, the calendar year 2021, was the highest of any G7 country—7.5%. Just yesterday the IMF forecast that economic growth—GDP growth—this current year in the UK would be at 3.6%—once again, for the second consecutive year, the highest of any G7 country. So our economy is in resilient condition.

But I know that many families are worried about the challenges we face, and that is why, just a few weeks ago—two or three weeks ago—we introduced the energy price guarantee. Families were genuinely fearful that they might face this winter energy bills of three, four, five, six or even seven thousand pounds per year, but that energy price guarantee will ensure that the average household sees energy prices no higher than £2,500 on average—not for six months, like the Labour plan, but for two years.

We also introduced a growth plan to get our economy growing, to see wages sustainably rising, to see good jobs created and to create a sustainable tax base to fund our public services. This Government have a growth plan; the Opposition have no plan.

We intend to do this in a way that is fiscally responsible, and that is why—[Interruption.]—and that is why, on 31 October, in less than three weeks’ time, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will set out the medium-term fiscal plan, explaining to the House exactly how he will do that, and how we will continue the UK’s track record of having the highest growth in the G7, not just last year but this year as well.

People are facing insecurity, instability and deep anxiety and they deserve answers. Conservative economic policy has caused mayhem with financial markets, pushed up mortgage costs and put pension funds in peril, and it has wiped £300 billion off the UK’s stock and bond markets—all directly caused by the choices of this Government. The mini-Budget, just 19 days ago, was a bonfire made up of unfunded tax cuts, excessive borrowing and repeated undermining of economic institutions. It was built and then set ablaze by a Conservative party totally out of control—not “disrupters” but pyromaniacs. And that fire has now spread. Yet Government deny all responsibility.

So will the Minister tell the House, what guarantees will the Government give that the currency slide will stop, and that people’s pensions are safe? How do they expect people to pay £500 more a month, on average, on their mortgages? How many more repossessions of family homes will there be if the Government do not change course? How much more are the Government spending on debt interest because of higher borrowing costs?

While Ministers desperately try to blame global conditions, why is it that no other central bank in the world has had to step in three times in less than three weeks to protect financial stability?

The country now faces a very serious situation. Ahead of the ending of the Bank of England’s emergency operations this Friday, what action will the Government take to ensure that their Budget does not have further consequences for financial stability, or for people’s pensions?

This is a Tory crisis made in Downing Street, but it is ordinary working people who are paying the price. It can be resolved only when the Conservatives put aside their pride and reverse this catastrophic mini-Budget, and they must do so now.

The shadow Chancellor calls for a reversal of the growth plan, yet at the first opportunity—last night—the Labour party voted for it. She asks about mortgage rates, so let me point out to her that mortgage rates around the world have been on an upward trajectory all year. In fact, if we compare base rates in the United Kingdom with those in the United States, we see that in both countries, as she will be aware, the base rate started this year at 0.25%. In the UK the base rate is currently 2.25%, and in the US it is 3.25%, a full percentage point higher.

The shadow Chancellor referenced borrowing costs. I am sure she is aware that two-year Government bond yields are about the same in the US as they are in the UK—US bond yields have been going up over the course of this year as well. She referenced the currency: the dollar has shown strength against a basket of currencies throughout this calendar year. If she looks at the dollar strengthening against the euro, she will see that it strengthened about 15% this calendar year, and strengthened about 15% against sterling—very similar figures.

The shadow Chancellor also asked about the cost of living. We are very mindful of that, which is why we have introduced a £37 billion package to help people, disproportionately targeted at those on lower incomes, so that people on the lowest third of incomes receive £1,200. It is why we introduced the energy price guarantee on our second or third day in office, ensuring that people do not pay, on average, more than £2,500, instead of facing bills of £5,000 or £6,000—and not for six months, as the Labour party offered, but for two years. It is why the national minimum wage was increased by a large amount last April. It is why the national insurance threshold was increased to £12,500 in July, so people on lower incomes now pay virtually no national insurance or income tax. That is the package of measures that this Government have introduced, because we stand on the side of working people and have taken the steps needed to support them.

I call the Chair of the Treasury Committee, Mel Stride.

My right hon. Friend the Chancellor was quite right to bring forward the date for the medium-term fiscal plan and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast. He now has, of course, a huge challenge in landing those plans in order to reassure the markets. He has to get the fiscal rules right and come forward with spending restraint and revenue raisers that are politically deliverable. Given the huge challenges, there are many—myself included—who believe it is quite possible that he will simply have to come forward with a further rowing back on the tax announcements he made on 23 September. Can my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary confirm that that possibility is still on the table?

I thank my right hon. Friend the Chair of the Select Committee for his counsel, which the Chancellor always listens to very carefully. The Chair of the Select Committee, along with others, suggested publicly that the date for the medium-term fiscal plan should be brought forward, and the Chancellor listened to him and responded by bringing the date forward from 23 November to 31 October.

There are no plans to reverse any of the tax measures announced in the growth plan. There is, I think, a measure of consensus—indeed, the Labour party voted only last night for the reduction in national insurance. We want to ensure that the UK is a competitive jurisdiction that companies and high-potential individuals who are internationally mobile choose to come to, to locate and grow. However, as the Select Committee Chair says, we of course need to do so in a way that is fiscally responsible, to ensure that debt over GDP falls in the medium term. The plan will lay out to the House in detail exactly how that will be achieved, scored by the OBR, on 31 October.

I call the SNP spokesperson, Alison Thewliss.

The Minister talks about the IMF, but not about its criticism yesterday or the pathetic growth it has projected for next year of just 0.3%—funny that.

The Treasury Committee took evidence this morning from a range of economists, all of whom echoed the concerns of the public about the chaos that this shambolic UK Tory Government have created. I am not sure whether the Minister considers Deutsche Bank as part of his anti-growth coalition, but its chief economist, Sanjay Raja, was very clear this morning that the UK has particular characteristics that are making this crisis worse. He said, “you’ve got a sidelined fiscal watchdog, you’ve got the lack of a medium-term fiscal plan, one of the largest unfunded tax cuts and package of measures since the early 1970s, and it’s sort of the straw that broke the camel’s back.”

This is chaos that the Minister and his colleagues have deliberately created, and it is impacting people and businesses across these islands, so I ask him: will he bring more money to the devolved institutions to help them tackle the chaos that he and his colleagues have created? Will he commit to uprating benefits by inflation and giving more support to those in the asylum system and those on “no recourse to public funds”? Will he bring certainty to businesses that do not yet know what will happen at the end of the six-month reprieve, because those bills have not gone away?

The Glasgow Centre for Population Health published some research that attributed about 330,000 excess deaths since 2010 to austerity—the Tory austerity by the Minister and his colleagues over the past 12 years—so will he cancel any further cuts, because they cost Scotland and our neighbours far more than we can ever afford? Scotland did not want this, did not vote for this and cannot trust in the financial stability of the UK, never mind this Tory Government.

Order. I have the greatest respect for the hon. Lady, but can I just say that she knows the rules give her one minute, not one minute and 45 seconds or two minutes? Please, let us stick to the rules of the House.

The Scottish Government are of course receiving record levels of funding, and that will continue. The hon. Member asked about excess deaths. Well, I think the drug death record of the nationalist Government is, frankly, pretty terrible. She asked about the uprating to welfare. There is a statutory process that happens every year—every autumn—and that decision has not been taken. It will happen in the normal way, as it has been done for every year.

The hon. Member referenced the IMF’s growth forecast for next year. I have already pointed out that last year we had the highest growth in the G7 and this year we have the highest growth in the G7. If we take the three years together—last year, this year and next year—we will find that the UK, at 11.7% over those three years, still has the highest growth of any G7 country.

The hon. Member asked about institutions. The Chancellor and the Prime Minister have the highest regard for the OBR and the Bank of England. They are meeting both of those institutions regularly. She referenced the growth plan. Having a competitive tax system, supply-side reforms to unleash the productive potential of our economy and making our energy market function properly once again are essential prerequisites for growth, and I am proud that it is this Government who are promoting them.

I am disappointed at the shadow Chancellor, who is a very good economist. She is accusing the Government of causing problems for people’s mortgage rates, but my right hon. Friend will agree with me, I am sure, that one of the worst things that can hit any economy is a wage-price spiral as a result of huge inflation. Can he confirm to the House that the action the Government have taken to provide support to the economy and to provide this huge input in relation to energy prices will bring down headline inflation, and specifically make mortgage rates better than they would have been otherwise, which is totally the opposite of what the shadow Chancellor is saying?

My right hon. Friend, who of course has a very distinguished professional track record in financial services, is absolutely right. A range of independent forecasters have confirmed that the energy price guarantee will not only protect our constituents from high prices, but lower inflation by about 5% compared with where it would otherwise have been—a vital intervention. While we are on the subject of inflation, it is worth keeping in mind that inflation in many countries in continental Europe is considerably higher than it is in the United Kingdom. For example, in Germany it is 10.9% and in Holland it is 14%.

The Minister has made great play of supporting people with their energy bills, but businesses only get support until March. The Government also make great play of creating growth. Many of the businesses in my constituency, particularly hospitality businesses, with a guarantee on their energy bills only until March, are making decisions in the coming weeks about whether they will be able to stay open and continue to be employers. How does that help growth, and will he give them some guarantee from March onwards?

The hon. Lady raises questions about timeframes. Of course, the Labour proposal was only for six months for consumers and businesses, and I did not hear her criticising that. The consumer offer is for 24 months—for two years. In relation to businesses, she is quite that the business scheme is for six months, but the Government made a commitment back in September that within three months of September—so within two months of now—further plans would be brought forward to explain to businesses, charities and, indeed, the public sector how they will be handled after March next year. My right hon. Friend the Business Secretary will announce that to the House in the coming weeks.

Growing our tax revenues in a way that is sustainable in every sense of that word is clearly massively important to pay for all the things we deeply care about, but will my right hon. Friend reassure us that he does get the significance of Government borrowing costs and that he will make sure that His Majesty’s Government do nothing that pushes those up unnecessarily high compared with the United States and Germany?