Covid-19 Update

Statement

The following Statement was made in the House of Commons on Monday 14 December.

“With permission, Mr Speaker, I would like to make a Statement on coronavirus. We are nearing the end of such a tough year, where the British people have united and had to make so many sacrifices for the common good. I know the whole House and the whole country have been cheered by the progress we have seen in the last few weeks, which means we can now roll out the vaccine programme that will ultimately set us free.

I can tell the House that, today, the NHS has begun vaccinations through GPs in England and in care homes in Scotland. Day by day, we are giving hope to more people and making this country safer. It is life- saving work. However, it will take time for its benefits to be felt far and wide, so we must persevere, because the virus remains as dangerous as it has always been.

Average daily hospital admissions are up 13% and the latest figures show that average daily cases have risen by 14% in the last week. As before, the rise and spread are not even across the country. We are seeing a sharp rise in south Wales, in London and in parts of the east and south-east of England. This is a trend that we are also seeing in other parts of Europe, in countries such as Sweden, where nearly all the intensive care beds in Stockholm are currently in use; in Germany, where they had to announce tougher new restrictions over the weekend; and in the Netherlands, which today has announced further measures. Until we can vaccinate enough vulnerable people and ensure that they get the second dose so that they are protected, we must act to suppress this virus.

Our strategy throughout, as set out in the winter plan, has been to suppress the virus while protecting the economy, education and the NHS until the vaccine can make us safe. Today, I would like to update the House on the latest steps we are taking in this mission. First, I want to update the House on a new development in the virus itself. Over the past few days, thanks to our world-class genomic capability in the UK, we have identified a new variant of coronavirus, which may be associated with the faster spread in the south-east of England. Initial analysis suggests that this variant is growing faster than the existing variants. We have identified over 1,000 cases with this variant, predominantly in the south of England, although cases have been identified in nearly 60 different local authority areas and numbers are increasing rapidly. Similar variants have been identified in other countries over the past few months.

We have notified the World Health Organization about this new variant, and Public Health England is working hard to continue its expert analysis at Porton Down. I must stress this point: there is currently nothing to suggest that this variant is more likely to cause serious disease, and the latest clinical advice is that it is highly unlikely that the mutation would fail to respond to a vaccine, but it shows that we have to be vigilant and follow the rules, and that everyone needs to take personal responsibility not to spread this virus.

The first formal review of tiering decisions is taking place this Wednesday, two weeks after the new rules came into force. However, I need to tell the House that over the last week we have seen very sharp exponential rises in the virus across London, Kent, parts of Essex and Hertfordshire. We do not know the extent to which that is because of the new variant, but no matter its cause, we have to take swift and decisive action. Doing so is, unfortunately, absolutely essential to control this deadly disease while the vaccine is rolled out. In some parts of these areas the doubling time is around every seven days. This is no longer just about rising rates among school-age children, but about rising rates in all age groups, including the over-60s.

We know from painful experience that more cases lead to more hospitalisations and, sadly, the loss of more of our loved ones. Hospitals across the capital, Essex and Kent are already under pressure. We know that the doubling of cases will be mirrored in hospital admissions, and it only takes a few doublings for the NHS to be overwhelmed. Our NHS is straining every sinew to cope with the pressures, as it always does, but if cases continue to double, even it will be overwhelmed.

We must act now to shift the curve, because when the virus is growing exponentially, there is not a moment to spare. We are, therefore, acting ahead of the formal review date. I am very grateful to colleagues at Public Health England, NHS Test and Trace and the Joint Biosecurity Centre, whose surveillance of this virus means that we can act very rapidly when a problem arises. We have therefore decided to move Greater London, the south and west of Essex—that includes Basildon, Brentwood, Harlow, Epping Forest, Castle Point, Rochford, Maldon, Braintree and Chelmsford, along with Thurrock and Southend-on-Sea Borough Councils—and the south of Hertfordshire, which means Broxbourne, Hertsmere, Watford and the Three Rivers local authority, into tier 3, the very high alert level.

That means that people can only see friends and family whom they do not live with, or with whom they are not in a support bubble, in outdoor public places and, of course, in line with the rule of six. Hospitality settings must close except for takeaway and delivery, and people should avoid travelling outside their area and reduce the number of journeys they make wherever possible. I know that this is difficult news. I know that it will mean that plans are disrupted, and that for businesses affected it will be a significant blow. This action is absolutely essential, not just to keep people safe but because we have seen that early action can help to prevent more damaging and longer-lasting problems later.

These restrictions will come into force at midnight on Wednesday morning, because when the virus moves quickly we must move quickly too. We must take actions that are not necessarily easy but that are effective. We will continue to stand with those who are most impacted, through our furlough scheme and support for the self-employed. We have already begun to surge mobile testing into these parts of London, Essex and Kent, and we are extending community testing too.

In addition, I can tell the House that this weekend, as part of our expansion of community testing, we are extending it to 67 local authorities across England. Further, today we will be publishing a guide for colleagues to promote, support and champion local community testing and contact tracing. We will be using millions of newly invented tests to reduce the rate of infection in areas where infection is highest and to help them move down through the tiers and closer to normal life.

Thanks to the forces of science, help is on its way. While we know now that that day will come, this is not over yet. While we deploy the fruits of scientific endeavour to keep the country safe, we must do what it takes to protect our loved ones and our NHS now. I know that these steps are hard, but we must not waver as we enter the final stretch, so that when we look back on this time of crisis, we can all say that we played our part. I commend the Statement to the House.”

My Lords, I thank the Minister for the debate today. A total of 34 million people will be living under tier 3 Covid rules from midnight tonight after London, parts of Essex and Hertfordshire were placed under the most severe level of restrictions. My first question for the Minister is: what have been the criteria for deciding these tiers, and will the Government commit to publishing the rationale for their decisions?

It was noticeable during the Statement yesterday that the Secretary of State spoke with firmness and confidence when he announced the new restrictions and why he was making them, and spoke about the worrying new strain of the virus. It was only when he was pressed on the effect of, and scientific story behind, the Christmas relaxation that he became less sure. One has to ask why that might be the case.

Talk of acting decisively and boldly seemed to go out of the window. In its place came fudge and obfuscation, dither and blather. Professor Chris Whitty, when commenting on the Christmas rules, said:

“This is, in a sense, a limited relaxation which will have some impact on the upward pressure on the coronavirus.”

Well, yes. The Government’s answer seems to be to fall back on ‌the idea that this is all about “personal responsibility”—about the public taking a minimalist interpretation of the rules, not a maximalist one. The Health Secretary eventually gave a vague bit of concrete advice on Christmas, coming close to saying that we should self-isolate for a few days before meeting grandparents.

“The best thing you can do if you want to see elderly relatives at Christmas is to be extremely careful now about who you see”

was how he put it.

I therefore have to ask the Minister whether the Christmas relaxation is being reconsidered. What is the Secretary of State’s plan to keep people safe through Christmas and avoid huge pressures on the NHS in January? What is his plan to support an exhausted, underfunded and understaffed NHS through January to deliver the care that patients will need? Is he confident that our NHS will not be so overwhelmed in January that it impacts on the vaccination programme? Will the Government publish an impact assessment on their decision to allow a temporary relaxation that will allow three households to mix over the festive period?

I support the points made by the noble Baroness, Lady Thornton, on lockdown; she and I have repeated them regularly in these debates, and yet there is no change. My points will be around vaccines, acute hospitals and their staffing, and Christmas. I thank the Minister for repeating the Statement and join him in welcoming the news about vaccines. Anyone in need of a real feelgood story should watch last night’s “Panorama” programme about the development of the Oxford team’s AstraZeneca vaccine.

How confident is the Minister of 100% vaccine coverage, for those that are entitled, by Easter 2021? This is a lot of people, and we are not certain of all vaccines being available by that time. Could he explain to the House what determines who receives the AstraZeneca vaccine and who the Pfizer—or indeed any other vaccine that may come along? Is he confident that the new vaccines will be effective against the new variant that is emerging?

Can the Minister give us a statement about acute hospitals in tier 3 areas? At the moment, it looks as though the rise in cases in the London area and the south-east is almost matched by the rise in hospital admissions—they are just a percentage point apart. Are the Government confident in London’s hospital capacity? We know that, in some areas, there are Nightingale hospitals; is the NHS intending to bring them into use if necessary? Are there the clinical and other staff to run them?

For many of us, an in-person Christmas may not be possible. We need to look at the impacts that Thanksgiving had on the US Covid-19 figures and assess our risk. Many of my contemporaries have decided not to travel to celebrate with friends and family, and our children have told us that this is what we are going to do as well, so it looks as if many will be resorting to whatever is their favourite conferencing software to catch up with family.

Finally, will the Minister outline the Government’s communication strategy for Christmas? Clear messaging is imperative but many of the public who have been interviewed are unclear. Will ads be used in newspapers, broadcasts and online social media? Christmas is 10 days away, and people would appreciate a clear steer from the Government. This needs urgent and professional communications attention.