To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the rising number of Covid-19 cases and comments made by the NHS Confederation regarding the reintroduction of certain restrictions, what criteria they have put in place as the triggers to implement their Covid-19 “Plan B”.
I thank the noble Lord for the very important Question. As set out in the Government’s comprehensive Covid-19 Response:Autumn and Winter Plan 2021, if the data suggests that the NHS is likely to come under unsustainable pressure, the Government have prepared plan B contingency measures. We monitor a wide range of Covid-19 data closely, so we can act if there is a substantial likelihood of this happening. We also track the economic and societal impacts of coronavirus to ensure that any response takes into account those wider effects in a balanced way.
My Lords, Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of SAGE’s sub-committee, said yesterday:
“I don’t want lockdown … The danger is if you do nothing … in terms of infections, in terms of long Covid, in terms of hospitalisations … they will be left with no alternative.”
Based on what the Minister has just said, what evidence do the Government have of why scientists such as Professor Reicher are wrong in seeking mitigation measures now to deal with the worrying number of viral transmissions as a way of stopping future lockdowns?
In order to judge what the next action should be, the Government have laid out plan A. Plan A is focused, for winter 2021-22, on building defences through vaccines, antivirals and disease-modified therapeutics, identifying and isolating cases of transmission through test and trace, and supporting the NHS and social care, but also advising people on how to protect themselves and offering clear guidance and communications.
My Lords, it is quite clear that those things are not working. When I saw the Secretary of State for BEIS doing the media rounds this morning denying that plan B was coming down the track, I thought we might open a book on how soon the Government will actually launch plan B. I would like to ask the Minister whether plan B becomes necessary because the Government have made such a mess of plan A, with very late vaccinations for 12 to 15 year-olds and a worryingly low uptake of booster jabs. Is it too late to prevent an NHS winter crisis, with the knock-on effects that will have for our backlog?
I thank the noble Baroness for her question and, while I have the opportunity, for all her advice, as a new boy in the role. We will continue to look at a number of different factors, including both economic and health indicators, before we judge whether it is necessary to move to plan B. Plan B does not actually involve complete lockdown. It involves introducing mandatory vaccine-only Covid status certification in certain riskier settings; legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport; and communicating clearly and urgently to the public if the risk level increases.
My Lords, could my noble friend tell us, following the amazing success of the vaccine rollout, what proportion of hospital beds are occupied by Covid patients? Because it seems to me that some people—some doomsayers—are trying to create panic where there is no need for it.
I thank my noble friend for his question. I do not have the detailed data and I will write to him. But in terms of the link between cases, hospitalisations and deaths, it is quite clear that the vaccine has been working to break the link between the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
Would the Minister accept that one of the unfair criticisms, in some ways, over the last 18 months, has been “too little, too late”? That cannot happen again. We need to set good examples. At Prime Minister’s Questions today, there was not a single Conservative MP wearing a mask in a crowded Chamber. What on earth is that as an example to the people on the Tube and everywhere else? Clearly, some small measures now will save the big measures later.
I agree with the noble Lord that it is important that we take as many measures as possible to make sure that we do not have to move to plan B. I assure the noble Lord that I do wear my mask to, hopefully, set an example, and I hope others will too—but it is really important that we understand what factors are driving this rise in numbers and the most effective way of tackling it.
My Lords, can the Minister say what action the Government are taking to ensure that the inequalities that have been experienced by black and ethnic minority people in relation to Covid-19 are being addressed now?
I thank my noble friend for that question, particularly in the light of this being Black History Month, an important month to be celebrated in terms of the contribution that the Afro-Caribbean community has made to this country over many years. However, on the specific issue, sadly there are some demographics in communities that have a lower uptake of vaccines. The Government are discussing with a number of stakeholders how we can improve information, but also encourage and exhort people from these communities to take the vaccines.
My Lords, we know there are government advisers who are advising the Government to implement plan B. Can the Minister say which ones are advising the Government not to implement plan B?
I am sure the noble Baroness will appreciate that all these issues are not necessarily binary, and that there are often a number of trade-offs, not only between economic and health factors but also within the health community itself. For example, there have been warnings that if we go down the route of more restrictive measures, we will see an increase both in patients who are unable to have the surgery that they had planned and in mental health cases.
My Lords, taking the Minister back to the answer he gave to my noble friend Lord Rooker, on the issue of mask wearing, the evidence seems to be that wearing a mask does have an impact on whether viruses are transmitted, and in this case there is efficacy in respect not only of Covid-19 but of other viruses which could be circulating at this time of year and themselves putting pressure on the NHS. What is it that the Government cannot bear about asking people to wear masks? It has no economic cost, costs very little in terms of inconvenience and has a very significant impact.
I assure the noble Baroness that plan B does involve legally mandating face coverings in certain settings, such as public transport and shops. I am sure many noble Lords will have recognised, when they are travelling in by public transport, the number of people wearing masks on public transport, even though advice by the transport companies has dropped.