My Lords, abortion is a generally safe procedure for women. It is not my purpose in bringing this Bill forward to dispute that. Rather, the question this Bill raises is: how safe is it? To know that, we need statistics that reflect real experience.
I start by drawing attention to the excellent brief that the Library has produced. This is a debate about statistics and statistical methodology, and I do not think the complexities involved could have been set out with greater clarity than they are in this brief.
The Library brief also includes at the end certain objections to the Bill expressed by the British Pregnancy Advisory Service—although it has not in fact contacted me. The first is that the Bill exceptionalises abortion. Strangely, I think that objection gives us a way into this debate. Abortion is indeed exceptional in that it is the only common procedure that is made available by the NHS but in the great majority of cases—about 80%—is provided by independent clinics, such as the charities BPAS and Marie Stopes, although there are other smaller providers as well. That is where the statistical issues start.
Independent abortion providers provide information on terminations, including on complications arising, to the Chief Medical Officer. This is known as the abortion notification system, or ANS. It covers not only the independent sector but also the 20% of terminations carried out in an NHS setting. In the case of independent providers, the complications it captures are principally those that arise within the clinic, since many women who experience a complication after discharge from the clinic—this is a key point—will present to their GP, to NHS 111 or to A&E at a hospital. These complications are not captured by the abortion notification system.
I should add that there is a legal obligation on the Department of Health and Social Care to monitor and publish statistics on abortion, and it uses the abortion notification system for this purpose. There is an annual report published. The published rate of complications is low, generally about 1.2 to 1.4 per 1,000 in recent years, for which I have the numbers. But until recently nobody has collated figures on the level of complications not captured by the ANS data, because the complications were not reported to the abortion provider but dealt with through the NHS directly.
Last year, the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, which is a branch or an arm of the NHS, turned its hand to this task. In November 2023—very recently—it produced its report. I have a copy here and it is a fairly chunky report. The task was more challenging than one might have thought There were, of course, many of the usual statistical conundra of what to count and what not to count, whether the definitions in different datasets were the same and matched, and so forth. In fact, the first half of the report is a careful and thorough essay on the methodology used, which is an indispensable thing to provide since it was doing it for the first time. The report focused entirely on incidents arising in a hospital setting using hospital episode statistics—I am going to use the expression HES from now on—as distinct from ANS; these are the two sets of data that we are dealing with. The report used the hospital episode statistic statistics and, importantly, did not include incomplete abortions that were not accompanied by a further complication.