Carbon budget 6, which was set out in 2021 and is current from 2033 to 2037, was subject to several legal challenges. It is now in the hands of the present Government. The Secretary of State carried out a full and rigorous assessment of the package, policies and proposals prior to publishing the recent Carbon budget and growth delivery plan and concluded that they will enable carbon budget 6 to be met. He will continue to monitor policy delivery and keep the package under review.
I thank the noble Lord for the Answer. You can imagine this is something that concerns me, because the previous Government lost two court cases about this as they were not going to achieve what they were aiming for. We have just had carbon budget 7. I am quite curious about whether this Government have really done the right risk assessments. The previous national security assessment said that nature damage will cost 12% of GDP by 2030 relative to what could have been achieved. If Labour are interested in GDP, it really ought to sort itself out on the issue of the environment.
We do not have the announcement of carbon budget 7 until the summer. The noble Baroness might care to think about what the process of looking again at carbon budget 6 was after those legal judgments. Indeed, the Government have taken a much more robust approach to developing the plan, which has allowed us to make a much clearer and more rational assessment of the savings that will enable carbon budgets to be met and to quantify them fully.
We have also quantified a number of real-world trends that are rather important today, and which are shaping our society and economy. That means our assessment reflects how we would expect the world to change as we accelerate towards net zero. None of these things were done when the previous Administration set out carbon budget 6—indeed, they were part of the legal challenge to those budgets. That is the reason why we consider that carbon budget 6 can be met, in addition to which a number of new policies and directions have come forward since this new Government took office.
My Lords, if we are going to meet our carbon budgets, clearly, the challenge of getting low-carbon electricity generation as quickly as possible is crucial. The latest figures I have for Q2 2025 suggest that nuclear power was about 15.1% of electricity generation. How do you square that with the Greens’ manifesto, which says that they want to get rid of nuclear power in this country?
The continued presence of nuclear power as a low-carbon power source is, and will be, an integral part of carbon budget 6 being met. It would be very difficult to catch up with those carbon budget 6 figures without nuclear power. It will come and go a little bit, in terms of retirements of nuclear power stations by the mid-2030s and new nuclear power stations coming online, but it will come back to at least that 15% figure. It is very difficult to see how carbon budget 6 might easily be met without that power in place.
My Lords, I am very pleased to hear that the Government continually reassess carbon budget 6, but I would like to hear the Minister’s response to the concerns of Ofgem, which has said that the volume of grid connection applications
“exceeds even the most ambitious demand forecasts”.
Further, last week, the Energy Secretary said that energy demand “remains inherently uncertain”. What is the Minister’s department doing to try to work out how much energy will be needed by data centres? Can the Government commit to using only low-carbon sources of power for these operations?
In terms of the Government’s clean power 2030 plans, pretty much only low-carbon power will be used for operations in the future. As far as data centres are concerned, this is one of the real-world trends that I mentioned has been analysed out in the carbon budget considerations. While AI will certainly considerably reduce the amount of electricity that is being used, the overall trend towards a large number of data centres will increase its use, so you have trends going in either direction. However, that is within the modelling that has been done so that we can consider how the budget can be met.
On grid connections, among other things, Ofgem is very much under way in reducing the number of people in the queue and making sure that the grid is far better able to accommodate the early connections and consequences of the rollout of new grid bootstraps, for example.
My Lords, given that the pursuit of carbon budgets has so far given us the highest electricity prices in the OECD, can the Minister confirm that the pursuit of decarbonisation has so far primarily resulted in the deindustrialisation of Britian, and that our carbon budgets do not take account of the fact that we have simply exported carbon emissions to the rest of the world?
It is certainly not true that the pursuit of a low-carbon economy has led to deindustrialisation. The noble Lord need only look at the £60 billion of investment that is coming into the green economy and all that goes with it. Indeed, the low-carbon economy is growing three times as fast as the general economy. Many of the things that are coming in concerning low-carbon energy are very much concerned with industrial plants, grids, new forms of electricity generation and so on, which will not only produce large numbers of jobs but a very sound industrial base for the country.
My Lords, to return to the Minister’s original Answer in relation to legal challenges, what assessment has been made of the electric vehicle rollout and boiler replacement mandates and their timeframes, and the Government’s ability to meet the building and transport emission cuts and the sixth carbon budget in good time?
On EV rollout, the noble Earl will be aware of what has been put in place for ending internal combustion engine use in vehicles and the phase-out of hybrid by 2035. The rollout of electric vehicles continues unabated, and the number of electric vehicle charging points in this country, currently at more than 80,000, is well on target for what we think necessary over the next period to ensure that the fleet works as well as it should.
Does the Minister accept that in the UKCS we have a far smaller carbon footprint for our own North Sea gas than the full life-cycle emissions of imported LNG from Qatar and the United States? Given that the Government’s energy security is challenged with growing dependency over the next 10 years on LNG ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, why are we the only country in the world that is failing to accelerate development of our own gas reserves, in the North Sea, for energy security and environmental objectives so that we can deliver firm and affordable power to all our high-energy-use industries, which currently face crushing energy costs, four times higher than in the United States?