Before we come to business questions, I am sure that the House will want to send our best wishes to Robin James, who retires today after 40 years, during which he clerked the Home Affairs Committee, the Foreign Affairs Committee, the Defence Committee, the Committees on Standards and the Committee of Privileges. Robin was a Clerk of the Committee that approved the building of Portcullis House, and as a Clerk to many Committees since, he has produced many thorough reports. I wish him a long, happy and fulfilling retirement.
The business for the week commencing 4 November includes:
Monday 4 November—Continuation of the Budget debate.
Tuesday 5 November—Continuation of the Budget debate.
Wednesday 6 November—Conclusion of the Budget debate.
The House will rise for the November recess at the conclusion of business on Wednesday 6 November and return on Monday 11 November.
The provisional business for the week commencing 11 November will include:
Monday 11 November—General debate on flood preparedness.
Tuesday 12 November—Remaining stages of the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill.
Wednesday 13 November—Debate on a motion to approve the draft Voter Identification (Amendment of List of Specified Documents) Regulations 2024, followed by a debate on a motion to approve the draft Environmental Protection (Single-use Vapes) (England) Regulations 2024, followed by a debate on motions to approve the draft Export and Investment Guarantees (Limit on Exports and Insurance Commitments) Order 2024, the draft Export and Investment Guarantees (Limit on Exports and Insurance Commitments) (No. 2) Order 2024, and the draft Export and Investment Guarantees (Limit on Exports and Insurance Commitments) (No. 3) Order 2024.
Thursday 14 November—Second Reading of the Lords Spiritual (Women) Act 2015 (Extension) Bill [Lords].
Mr Speaker, I echo your thanks and congratulations to Robin James, who retires today after 40 years of service. In this House, we all rely on the service of the Clerks, and I know that we are all extremely grateful to Robin for the work that he has done over four decades. I am sure that the whole House will also want to send our thoughts, prayers and best wishes to those affected by the terrible floods currently happening in Spain. Some British citizens are affected as well.
It is good that we will have such ample time to debate the Budget, because it raises some extremely serious issues. On 29 July, the Chancellor of the Exchequer stood at the Dispatch Box and told us that there was a £22 billion black hole. That claim has been repeated by Labour Ministers subsequently as a pretext for the tax rises that they planned all along. The Chancellor asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to produce a report into this matter, which was published yesterday. It is called the “Review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits”—a snappy title. I have read that report, as I am sure others have, and nowhere does it mention £22 billion. That number is not there at all. In fact, the only reference to a number is found on page 2 and in table 1. Even the Treasury, straining every sinew, could only find numbers that added up to £9.5 billion, and even there the OBR says that
“it is not possible to judge how much of the £9.5 billion”
might actually have been realised. When the Chancellor said that there was a £22 billion black hole, yesterday’s OBR report now proves that that was simply untrue. Will she come here and apologise for providing that number to the House, given that the OBR report shows that it was simply not true, and certainly does not justify £40 billion-worth of tax rises—the largest tax rises in any Budget in history?
Let me turn to election promises and trust in politics, because when we make promises to the public, it is important that we keep them. [Laughter.] I do not know why you are laughing, because these are your promises. The Labour party said that its plans did not require any extra tax rises. Yesterday, the Government announced £40 billion-worth of extra tax rises. They said that there would be no increase in national insurance, but yesterday they announced a £25 billion increase in national insurance.
Thank you, Mr Speaker. May I, too, join you in paying tribute to Robin James, who has been a Clerk here for over 40 years, most recently on the Committees on Standards and of Privileges, which has certainly put him in the spotlight in recent years. I know he wishes to retire to Wales, with the twin ambitions of learning Welsh and finally learning to drive. I am sure we wish him well with both those endeavours. I also congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for High Peak (Jon Pearce) on the birth of his newborn daughter Connie this week.
Finally, I think, the Conservative leadership contest will finish this weekend, and it could be all change on the Opposition Benches. This could be my last exchange with the right hon. Member for Croydon South (Chris Philp). He is well known for his ambition, and perhaps today was another audition for higher office. I am sure he would welcome a promotion, from the detailed discussions we have on restoration and renewal and House procedure, and I am that sure he will be looking forward to that. I thank him for the work that we have done together. If this is our last exchange, I will really miss his—how shall I put it?—boundless enthusiasm, because God loves a trier; let us hope the next Conservative leader does too.
As the right hon. Gentleman rightly said, yesterday we saw history made, with the first ever Budget delivered by a female Chancellor. I am so proud of my friend for smashing that glass ceiling. The country voted for change and our Budget lives up to that promise. We have made clear choices. We have chosen responsibility over recklessness, reliable public services over endless crises, putting working people first, investment over decline, a Budget that is now backed by the International Monetary Fund—an unprecedented endorsement of a Budget. In many ways, it is not a Budget that we expected or wanted to make, but we have had to fix the mess left by the Conservative party—[Interruption.] I know that Conservative Members do not like to hear it, but they were not straight with people before the election.
Yesterday, a large number of women lobbied Parliament. They represent a generation of women—just women, not men, which is perhaps not too odd given the values of the Conservative party—who suffered a great injustice in the Pensions Act 2011. They call themselves the Women Against State Pension Age Inequality Campaign, or WASPI. Government inevitably takes time—estimates must be made and legal advice taken—but I would be grateful to the Leader of the House if she indicated when we might hear a statement on the WASPI situation, or have the opportunity to debate it, so that we can give some hope to thousands of women, including 4,500 in my constituency.
My hon. Friend has long campaigned on these issues, and has asked about them before. He rightly raises the campaigners’ points; he will be aware that the report is detailed and substantial, requiring the Government to give proper time to considering all its findings. I assure my hon. Friend that as soon as that proper consideration has been given, Ministers will come to Parliament to report on it.
I also express my sympathies with the people of eastern Spain on the tragic scenes we are seeing there. I understand that a 71-year-old Briton may also be among the dead, and we expect the numbers to go up. It is perhaps timely that a general debate on flooding is coming up. I welcome that debate, and look forward to hearing what is discussed.
There is much in yesterday’s Budget that the Liberal Democrats welcome. In particular, we welcome the additional funds for the day-to-day NHS spending. We have long been campaigning for that, and we very much welcome it. However, there are patients in hospital who are well enough to leave, but cannot do so unless they get the care they need. Unfortunately, the £600 million that was announced for social care will not touch the sides of what is needed to make that system work properly and alleviate the pressures on the NHS. Will the Leader of the House set aside Government time for a general debate on how best to reform social care?
I join the hon. Lady and the shadow Leader of the House—I meant to do so earlier—in expressing the Government’s condolences to, and support for, those in Spain who have either died or lost all their belongings and their homes in the recent Spanish floods. As she says, we have a general debate in two weeks’ time on flood preparedness, partly in response to so many questions coming forward on that topic during this Session.
I thank the hon. Lady for her words about the Budget. There is a lot of good news in the Budget that her party should welcome, given how much campaigning they have done on many of these issues. They should be grateful for some of the measures, particularly the biggest ever cash increase in the earnings thresholds for carer’s allowance, for which her party has campaigned. As the hon. Lady says, we have announced a huge funding boost for the NHS and an extra £600 million for social care. She is absolutely right, though, that these issues will take time to work through, and will need further reform and investment to deal with going forward. The ageing population and the crisis in social care are inextricably linked to the future of our health service.
I have many tower blocks in my constituency, and too many constituents find that their lifts are regularly broken and are not getting fixed. This is not just down to individual landlords—it cuts across the piece. Is it not time for a debate in Government time about how the four main lift companies organise their structures and maintenance contracts? This is stopping people from living their lives, and very often leaving them trapped in or outside their flats.
As an MP who also represents a number of people who live in tall buildings, I completely hear what my hon. Friend is saying. This is a very important matter, and I am sure that if she were to apply for a debate, it would get a lot of attention.
The good news is that the Backbench Business Committee will be meeting on Tuesday. We are open for business, and a steady series of applications has started, particularly from one of our long-term season ticket holders. We are going to be open for requests for 90-minute or half-day debates; it would be very exceptional for us to grant a full day’s debate. We are also going to keep a very close eye on whether those people who make or support applications actually turn up and speak in the debates that are allocated. We had a very good meeting with the Leader of the House earlier this week, and I am looking forward to her announcing time for the Backbench Business Committee to allocate debates.
Mr Speaker, you have very graciously granted us the use of Speaker’s House for the Diwali reception on Monday, for which we thank you. To Hindus, Sikhs and Jains, I wish Shubh Deepavali for today, and Nutan Varshabhinandan for Saturday.
I, too, welcome the formation of the Backbench Business Committee, and I welcome the conversations we have begun to ensure that we work together on the allocation of time for Backbench Business debates and others that may be granted by the Government. On the application from the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon), I am sure he will definitely be in attendance for that debate, should the Committee grant it. There is no question about that, and I expect it will be on the freedom of religion or belief, which is a common theme of his questions in these sessions.
I join the hon. Member for Harrow East (Bob Blackman) in wishing everybody a happy Diwali.
I am delighted that the Chancellor’s Budget included a significant real-terms funding increase for local authorities, giving them more to invest in vital community services and infrastructure.
I, too, express my condolences to the victims of flooding in Spain. One of my constituents has experienced significant flooding issues after the road outside her property was resurfaced in a way that directs water directly into her home, instead of towards the river. After raising this with Cornwall council, she was told that nothing could be done. Does the Leader of the House agree with me that it is incumbent on local authorities to ensure that every penny of taxpayers’ money is spent as effectively as possible to address serious issues such as the flooding experienced by my constituent?
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Let me turn now to their final fig leaf: working people. Apparently, working people would not be affected. In the last couple of hours the Chancellor herself, on the BBC, has admitted what we all knew all along: that working people would be affected, as a result of lower wages. In fact, we can quantify that, thanks to the OBR’s analysis—I am now quite a fan of the OBR. It published yesterday its “Economic and fiscal outlook”. It is 205 pages long, so some Labour Members might not have had a chance to read it all, but I have. On page 54, in paragraph 3.11, it tells us exactly how much of that £25 billion national insurance increase will fall on the shoulders of working people. The OBR says that
“76 per cent of the total”
will result in “lower real wages” for working people. So 76% of that £25 billion increase will fall on the shoulders of working people. That is £19 billion a year lower wages as a result of yesterday’s Budget. That is not me; that is the OBR. So perhaps the Leader of the House would like to apologise to those working people for the £19 billion pay cut she has just handed them.
During the election campaign, Conservative Members warned that Labour’s plans would result in a £2,094 tax increase per working household, and Labour called us liars. I remember being on the radio and the TV, and Labour shadow Ministers at the time—including the Leader of the House, I think—called us liars. We now know the truth: £40 billion a year. That is £2,173 per working household, so about £100 more than we warned. Perhaps she can apologise for that as well.
We also warned that the tax burden would increase to 37.4% of GDP. The OBR says that it will be 38% of GDP—higher even than we warned when Labour called us liars. That is the highest tax burden ever in our country’s history. So the Government were elected on a false prospectus. The OBR has now told us that will result in lower growth by the end of the forecast period and higher inflation. The truth has finally come out: the Government are going to tax more, they are going to borrow more, and they are going to spend more, and now we know who will pay: working people, to the tune of £19 billion a year.
The Office for Budget Responsibility, which the right hon. Gentleman quoted, has made it clear that, had it known the true state of the public finances in March, its forecast for the previous Government’s plans would have been “materially different.” I do not usually agree with the former Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, but perhaps the right hon. Gentleman should heed his advice today. He said that the situation Labour inherited was “structurally difficult.” In other words, we are clearing up the Conservatives’ mess.
I am a little confused, Mr Speaker. Does the right hon. Gentleman now accept that there was a black hole, but disagrees on the amount, or is he still in denial that there was even a black hole at all? It is ironic that the Conservatives spent all week undermining the OBR, but are now trying to hide behind the OBR’s figures. I am not sure—which is it? He will know that there was a huge black hole, even before the pay awards that the Conservatives left sitting on their desk, and for which they set aside no money even though they knew that someone would have to pay for it.
We make no apology for the Budget, which is about long-term investment and a decade of national renewal. That is why it is right that we consider the benefits of investment and not just the cost. This country has suffered years of decline and under-investment—we were ranked second lowest for investment in the OECD. We have chosen investment, not further decline under the Tories. We have had to be honest about the difficult choices that we have made in the Budget given what we were left with. I must ask the right hon. Gentleman and other Conservative Members: how would they fix the finances left by their Government? How would they give the NHS the money that it needs? How would they get the long-term investment that the country is crying out for?
We have absolutely put working people first, and I am proud of the pay rise that the Budget gives the poorest workers next April. There are many more things to welcome in the Budget, and I am sure that the House, and maybe the right hon. Gentleman, welcomes them. They include one of the biggest ever increases in NHS spending to deal with the record waiting lists that the Conservatives left behind, much-needed funding for special educational needs and disabilities education, a boost for carers for the first time since the 1970s, fixing the schools that the Conservatives left to crumble, more affordable social housing, money to tackle the cladding crisis, ushering in a decade of national renewal, and investing in the jobs of the future in clean energy, tech, aerospace, automotive, transport, life sciences and much more.
In particular, and I must say this because it needs underlining, this Government have finally put aside money to pay compensation to the victims of historical injustices, including infected blood and the Post Office Horizon scandal, and to deliver fairness for the mine- workers’ pension scheme. Honestly, the most shameful part of the Conservatives’ recklessness with the country is that they promised many times that victims of those injustices would receive compensation, but they put aside not a single penny—not a single budget line to pay for it—in any of their costings.
We cannot in one Budget undo the 14 sorry years of Conservative under-investment, stagnant growth, falling living standards and crumbling public services, but this Budget makes a very good first step forward.