That income tax is charged for the tax year 2022-23.
And it is declared that it is expedient in the public interest that this Resolution should have statutory effect under the provisions of the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act 1968.—(Rishi Sunak.)
At this point I would normally call the Leader of the Opposition to respond to the Chancellor’s statement. As Mr Speaker announced earlier, the Leader of the Opposition is sadly isolating—we all wish him a speedy recovery—and therefore, to answer on behalf of the Opposition, I call the shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Families struggling with the cost of living crisis; businesses hit by a supply chain crisis; those who rely on our schools, our hospitals and our police—they will not recognise the world that the Chancellor described. They will think that he is living in a parallel universe.
The Chancellor decided in this Budget to cut taxes for banks, so at least the bankers on short-haul flights sipping champagne will be cheering it. And he had the arrogance, after taking £6 billion out of the pockets of some of the poorest people in this country, of expecting them to cheer today for £2 billion given to compensate. In the long story of this Parliament, never has a Chancellor asked the British people to pay so much for so little. Time and again today, he compared the investments that he is making to the last decade, but who was in charge in that lost decade? They were.
Let us just reflect on the choices that the Chancellor has made today. We have the highest sustained tax burden in peacetime—and who is going to pay for it? It is not international giants such as Amazon; no, the Chancellor has found a tax deduction for them. It is not property speculators; they have already pocketed a stamp duty cut. And it is clearly not the banks, even though bankers’ bonuses are set to reach a record high this year. Instead, the Chancellor is loading the burden on working people, with a national insurance tax rise on working people, a council tax hike on working people, and no support today for working people with VAT on their gas and electricity bills.
And what are working people getting in return? There is a record NHS waiting list with no plan to clear it, no way to see a GP, and people are still having to sell their home to pay for social care. We have community policing nowhere to be seen, a court backlog leaving victims without justice, and almost every rape going unprosecuted. There is a growing gap in results and opportunities between children at private and state schools, a soaring number of pupils in super-size classes, and no serious plan to catch up on learning stolen by the virus. The £2 billion announced today is a pale imitation of the £15 billion catch-up fund that the Prime Minister’s own education tsar said was needed. No wonder he resigned.
So as well as having the highest death toll in Europe, Britain has suffered the worst economic hit of any major economy. The Chancellor now boasts that we are growing faster than others, but that is because we fell the furthest. While the US and others have already seen their economy bounce back to levels seen before the pandemic, the UK has not. Our economy is set to be permanently weaker.
On top of all that, the Government are now lurching from crisis to crisis: people avoiding journeys because they cannot fill up their petrol tank is not good for the economy; people spending less because the cost of the weekly shop has exploded is not good for the economy; and British exporters facing more barriers than their European competitors because of the deal the Government did is not good for our economy. If this were a plan, it would be economic sabotage. When the Prime Minister is not blagging that this chaos is part of his cunning plan, he is saying he is not worried about inflation. Well, tell that to families struggling with rising gas and electricity bills, rising petrol prices at the pump and rising food prices. He is out of touch, he is out of ideas and he has left working people out of pocket.
Conservative mismanagement has made the fiscal situation tight. When times are tight, it is even more important to ensure that taxes are fair and that taxpayers get value for money. The Government fail on both fronts. We have a grossly unfair tax system, with the burden being heaped on working people. Successive Budgets have raised council tax and income tax. Now they have raised national insurance, too. But taxes on those with the broadest shoulders, those who earn their income from stocks and shares and dividends and property portfolios, have been left nearly untouched. Businesses based on the high street are the lifeblood of our communities and are often the first venture for entrepreneurs, but despite what the Chancellor said today, businesses will still be held back by punitive and unfair business rates. The Government have failed to tax the online giants and watered down global efforts to create a level playing field.
I broadly welcome the Budget, which is the first my right hon. Friend the Chancellor has delivered in what we might call the second phase of this crisis, the first phase having been from a sharp contraction in the economy through to the recovery, during which period my right hon. Friend, I think it is fair to say—[Interruption.]
I was saying that in the first phase of this crisis, between the huge contraction in the economy and the recovery that we are now seeing, it is fair to say that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor did a pretty remarkable job to support the jobs market and to support jobs—not without criticism, incidentally, from my Committee, but overall it was a remarkable job.
My right hon. Friend has an even tougher job as he looks to the future, now having to deliver sustainable economic growth and ensure that the public finances are on a sustainable trajectory, as well as meeting all the other objectives the Government rightly have on levelling up, net zero and so on.
My right hon. Friend mentions levelling up. Does he not agree that this is a real workers’ budget? The funds for skills and schools will transform the prospects of our young people and our adults, and let them climb the ladder of opportunity to get skills, security, prosperity and jobs for the future.
My right hon. Friend is absolutely correct about skills. He, of course, through his Committee, has done so much to promote that agenda, which I will come to momentarily, but the background is extremely tough.
While the Chancellor is right to point out that the deficit is falling, it is none the less very highly elevated compared with historical measures. The debt, in financial terms at least, is at a record level of £2.2 billion, and the economy has the headwinds of supply chain bottlenecks and the mismatch between demand and supply that we are seeing in parts of the labour force.
However, there are reasons to be cheerful, which my right hon. Friend outlined. Those are the OBR’s revised forecast showing that growth is much stronger this year—I think the Chancellor suggested 6.5%, compared with the March forecast of just 4%—and the scarring downgrade from 3% to 2%. By my calculation, that is probably worth about £10 billion or thereabouts per year; it is a significant achievement. All that has been achieved through the hard work of the last 18 months to two years. I do not think we should take that away from my right hon. Friend.
That has left my right hon. Friend with some breathing space, and he recognises that there are many challenges facing the economy and uncertainties going forward. A big test as we unpack the Budget is what he has done with that additional headroom. Not surprisingly, he has spent quite a lot of it. It appears to me that, with his fiscal rule of keeping day-to-day expenditure without borrowing and debt coming down as a percentage of GDP, he has headroom of about £25 billion in 2024-25 on the net debt target, which is about 0.9% of GDP, with the OBR economic and fiscal outlook suggesting he has a 55% to 60% chance of hitting that particular metric. The Committee will want to look very closely at how prudent an approach my right hon. Friend has taken to the Budget.
I see my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) itching to intervene, so I give way to him.
I am listening intently. I do believe that the Government have done extraordinarily well in raising the national living wage as part of that headroom. That is a major step towards a high-wage, high-tech economy, and it bolsters our one nation agenda, which is to be applauded.
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. I will come to the matter of wages and wage growth momentarily, but let me dwell on the challenges facing the economy.
Another thing that the OBR points out is the increased sensitivity to interest rate rises—the Chancellor made this point—and the damage that they can do to the public finances. I think my right hon. Friend gave the example of a 1% rise leading to a £23 billion increase in debt servicing costs. To put that in perspective, it would wipe out the value of the corporation tax increases and income tax threshold freezes that my right hon. Friend announced in the last Budget. That would be gone in one enormous gulp, so we must be careful about the vulnerability we have. Though we have low interest rates, and interest rates might move up in baby steps, that applies to a very large debt indeed.
Let me touch on inflation—I am pleased that my right hon. Friend spent quite a lot of time on it during his speech—and its impact on interest rates. We have already seen the Monetary Policy Committee beginning to divide on whether rates should go up, and there is an expectation, certainly in the markets, that rates will start to increase. We have seen 10-year gilts going up in more recent times, and it is possible that quantitative easing will start to unwind —perhaps passively initially—when we reach a certain trigger level of interest rates, so it is important that this credible plan is there to deliver on those fiscal targets.
The history, however, is not good in that respect. We have had Chancellor after Chancellor failing to meet their fiscal targets; they have either abandoned them completely or delayed or modified them in some form. Depending on what happens to demand in the economy relative to supply, there may be a case for fiscal stimulus even further down the line. One thinks of the removal of the universal credit uplift, the energy price increases, the labour market demand-supply mismatches and the rise in taxes, often taking demand out of the economy. None the less, and setting that to one side, the Chancellor’s default position must be to stick to those fiscal targets and resist the huge cacophony of demands for more and more expenditure, particularly the day-to-day expenditure that he is rightly targeting in his fiscal rules.
Does my right hon. Friend agree that we need to be very careful about believing any of these forecasts from the OBR and the Bank of England? They said that inflation would be down at under 2% just a few months ago and have now had to change their mind. Does he also agree that when Lord Lawson cut income tax rates, we had a surge of extra revenue?
It is certainly the case that the Bank of England’s projections on inflation have been under-baked. In fact, if we go back in time, we can see that its recent revisions have been more dramatic, which really illustrates my point. I have a feeling that there will be rather more inflationary pressure than many people imagine.
Some of the drivers of inflation are outside the control of my right hon. Friend the Chancellor, but some are very much within it. One of those is immigration. I totally accept the comment from my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister that we do not want to instinctively
“reach for that…lever of uncontrolled immigration”.
He is absolutely right: this country left the EU to get control of our immigration. However, what we must not do is avoid pulling the lever where there are genuine pinch points in the labour market in the shorter term. If we do not act to bring in skills if necessary, we will simply encumber businesses in a way that may mean many going out of business, and replace them with imports, which can also be inflationary.
The other such area is skills. Further to the point that the Chair of the Select Committee on Education, my right hon. Friend the Member for Harlow (Robert Halfon), made about the importance of skills, I was really pleased by the announcements from my right hon. Friend the Chancellor about post-16 T-levels and lifelong learning. Those announcements are vital to repurposing the workforce to get the challenges of the future sorted.
In the longer term, there is a huge opportunity for us in this country. We are a world leader in life sciences, FinTech, financial services and the digital sector and we have opportunities in artificial intelligence, robotics and genetics, but if we are to grasp those opportunities, we have to get the level of business investment up. I think that my right hon. Friend referred to that level increasing over time; that may be true, but it is still quite a long way below where it ought to be, looking at it historically.
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The Chancellor talks about world-class public services. Tell that to a pensioner waiting for a hip operation. Tell that to a young woman waiting to go to court to get justice. Tell that to a mum and dad waiting for their child to get the mental health support that they need. The Chancellor says today that he has realised what a difference early years spending makes. Has he ever heard of the Sure Start programme that this Tory Government cut?
Why are we in this position? Why are British businesses being stifled by debt while Amazon gets tax deductions? Why are working people being asked to pay more tax and put up with worse services? Why is billions of pounds in taxpayers’ money being funnelled to friends and donors of the Conservative party while millions of families are having £20 a week taken off them? Why can’t Britain do better than this?
The Government will always blame others: “It’s businesses’ fault”; “It’s the EU’s fault”; “It’s the public’s fault”; “They’re global problems”—the same old excuses. But the blunt reality is this. Working people are being asked to pay more for less, for three simple reasons: economic mismanagement, an unfair tax system, and wasteful spending. Each of those problems is down to 11 years of Conservative failure. Government Members shake their heads, but the cuts to our public services have cut them to the bone. While the Chancellor and the Prime Minister like to pretend that they are different, this Budget will only make things worse.
The solution starts with growth. The Government are caught in a bind of their own making, because low growth inexorably leads to less money for our public services unless taxes rise, and under the Conservatives Britain has become a low-growth economy. Let us look at the last decade. The Tories have grown the economy at just 1.8% a year. If we had grown at the same rate as other advanced economies, we could have had an additional £30 billion to invest in public services without raising the taxes that the Tories are raising on working people today.
Let us compare growth under the last 11 years of Conservative government to that under the last Labour Government. Even taking into account the global financial crisis, Labour grew the economy much faster—by 2.3% a year. If the Tories matched that record, we would have £30 billion more a year to spend on public services.
It could not be clearer: the Conservatives are now the party of high taxation, because the Conservatives are the party of low growth. The Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that today. We will be back to anaemic growth—[Interruption.] Conservative Members might not like this, but the Office for Budget Responsibility said that by the end of this Parliament, the UK economy will be growing by just 1.3%. That is hardly the plan for growth that the Chancellor boasted about today; it is hardly a ringing endorsement of his announcements. Under the Tory decade, we have had low growth, and there is not much growth to look forward to.
The economy has been weakened by the pandemic, but also by the Government’s mishandling of it. Responding to the virus has been a huge challenge. Governments around the world have taken on more debt, but our situation is worse than in other countries. It is worse because our economy was already fragile going into the crisis, with too much inequality, too much insecure work and too little resilience in our public services. And it is worse because the Prime Minister dithered and delayed against scientific advice, egged on by the Chancellor, and we ended up facing harsher and longer restrictions than other countries. So as well as having the highest death toll in Europe, Britain suffered—[Interruption.]
Just when we needed every penny of public money to make a difference, we have a Government who are a byword for waste, cronyism and vanity projects. We have had £37 billion for a test and trace system that the spending watchdog says treats taxpayers like an ATM cash machine, a yacht for Ministers, a fancy paint job for the Prime Minister’s plane, a TV studio for Conservative party broadcasts that seems to have morphed into the world’s most expensive home cinema, £3.5 billion of Government contracts awarded to friends and donors of the Conservative party, a £190 million loan to a company employing the Prime Minister’s former chief of staff, and £30 million to the former Health Secretary’s pub landlord—and every single one of those cheques signed by the Chancellor. Now the Chancellor comes to ordinary working people and asks them to pay more than they have ever been asked to pay before, and, at the same time, to put up with worse public services, all because of his economic mismanagement, his unfair tax system and his wasteful spending.
Of course, there are some welcome measures in the Budget today, as there are in any Budget. Labour welcomes the increase in the national minimum wage, but the Government need to go further and faster. If they had backed Labour’s position of an immediate rise to at least £10 an hour, a full-time worker on the national minimum wage would be in line for an extra £1,000 a year. Ending the punitive public sector pay freeze is welcome, but we know how much this Chancellor likes his smoke and mirrors, so we will be checking the books to make sure that the money is there for a real-terms pay rise. Labour also welcomes the Government’s decision to reduce the universal credit taper rate, as we have consistently called for, but the system has got so out of whack that even after that reduction working people on universal credit still face a higher marginal tax rate than the Prime Minister. Those unable to work through no fault of their own still face losing more than £1,000 a year. For families who go out to work every day but do not get Government benefits, who are on an average wage, who have to fill up their car with petrol to get to work, who do that weekly shop, and who see their gas and electricity prices go up, the Budget today does absolutely nothing.
We have a cost-of-living crisis. The Government have no coherent plan to help families cope with rising energy prices. Although we welcome the action taken today on universal credit, millions will still struggle to pay the bills this winter. The Government have done nothing to help people with their gas and electricity bills through the cut in VAT receipts that Labour has called for—a cut that is possible because we are outside the European Union and could be funded by the extra VAT receipts of the last few months. Working people are left out in the cold while the Government hammer them with tax rises. National insurance is a regressive tax on working people: a tax on jobs. Under the Chancellor’s plans, a landlord renting out dozens of properties will not pay a penny more in tax, but their tenants, in work, will face tax rises of hundreds of pounds a year.
The Chancellor is failing to tackle another huge issue of the day: adapting to climate change. Adapting to climate change presents opportunities—more jobs, lower bills and cleaner air—but only if we act now and at scale. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, failure to act will mean public sector debt explodes later to nearly 300% of GDP. The only way to be a prudent and responsible Chancellor is to be a green Chancellor: to invest in the transition to a zero-carbon economy and give British businesses a head start in the industries of the future. But with no mention of climate in his conference speech and the most passing of references today, we are burdened with a Chancellor unwilling to meet the scale of the challenges we face. Homeowners are left to face the costs of insulation on their own. Industries like steel and hydrogen are in a global race, but without the support they need. In the week before COP26, the Chancellor has promoted domestic flights over high-speed rail. It is because of this Chancellor that in the week when we are trying to persuade other countries to reduce their emissions, the Government cannot even confirm that they will meet their 2035 climate reduction target.
Everywhere working people look at the moment, they see prices going up and they see shortages on the shelves, but this Budget did nothing to address their fears. Household budgets are being stretched thinner than ever, but the Budget did nothing to deal with the spiralling cost of living. It is a shocking missed opportunity by a Government who are completely out of touch.
There is an alternative. Rather than just tweak the system, Labour would scrap business rates and replace them with something much better by ensuring online giants pay their fair share. That is what being pro-business looks like. We would not put up national insurance for working people. We would ensure that those with the broadest shoulders pay their fair share. That is what being on the side of working people looks like. We would end the £1.7 billion subsidy that the Government give to private schools and put it straight into our local state schools. That is what being on the side of working families looks like. We would deliver a climate investment pledge of £28 billion every year for the rest of this decade: gigafactories to build batteries for electric vehicles; a thriving hydrogen industry creating jobs in all parts of our country; and retrofitting so that we keep homes warm and get our energy bills down. That is what real action on climate change looks like.
This country deserves better, but it will never get it under this Chancellor, who gives with one hand but takes so much more with the other. What you get with these two is a classic con game, like one of those pickpocketing operations you see in crowded places: the Prime Minister is the front man distracting people with his wild promises, and all the while his Chancellor is dipping his hand in their pockets. It all seems like fun and games until you walk away and find that your purse has been lifted.
But people are getting wise to them. Every month, they feel the pinch. They are tired of the smoke and mirrors. They are tired of the bluster, of the false dawns and of the promises of jam tomorrow. Labour would put working people first, and would use the power of government and the skill of business to ensure that the next generation of quality jobs are created right here in Britain. We would tax fairly, spend wisely and, after a decade of faltering growth, get Britain’s economy firing on all cylinders. That is what a Labour Budget would have done today.
Some of those demands might end up being necessary. If we do not get back to the pattern of demand for public transport that we had before we locked down, it is conceivable that further subsidy will need to go to the public transport sector. Other areas, such as the health service, might have additional demands, but I point out to my right hon. Friend—he knows this more than most —that the NHS public expenditure take has risen in the last 10 years from 32% to 42%. He must get very good at saying no to Ministers when it is necessary to do so, and telling them to go back to their Departments, work harder and get more out of what they are given. That is a lesson for us all, incidentally, particularly those of us on this side of the House.
If we fail in that endeavour and inflation takes off, interest rates go through the roof, the cost of servicing our debt becomes ruinous and international markets lose faith in our economy, we will be back broadly where we were in 1992 when we had Black Wednesday. Conservative Members will remember the long, hard lesson of that: it took us a generation to re-establish our ability to look the electorate in the eye and say, “We have a fiscally responsible Government.”
There were some announcements on tax today. May I say first that the drop in the bank surcharge is absolutely the right thing to do? We are putting corporation tax rates up to 25% from 19%, so it would be absurd to cripple our financial institutions with uncompetitive international tax rates.
I was particularly delighted by the shift in the universal credit taper rate from 63% to 55%. That will help countless low-paid families to earn more and keep more of their money, and encourage more people into work. When I was a Treasury Minister, we looked endlessly at this and I pushed really hard on it. I know how expensive it is to do that—my right hon. Friend the Chancellor suggested £2 billion a year—so I take my hat off to him for having grasped that particular nettle.
My right hon. Friend is also right to set out an aspiration to get taxes down before the end of this Parliament. The same pattern occurred under Lady Thatcher, who is much referred to when we talk about tax. In the early years of the Thatcher Government, the tax burden rose quite strongly, and it was my right hon. Friend’s hero Lord Lawson who was able to bring tax rates down. Let us hope that my right hon. Friend is in a position to emulate that in due course.
I turn briefly to inflation, which is right at the core of what is happening in the economy. The threat to the public finances from inflation cannot be overstated. The big debate now is whether price surges and increases in inflationary expectations will be transitory or more persistent. My right hon. Friend referred to the surge in demand relative to supply, which of course will lead to price increases; all else being equal, one might imagine that it will pass relatively quickly.
We have seen the commodity, transport and energy price increases that my right hon. Friend referred to, but there are other price increases that we might expect to be stickier. There are bottlenecks that are often outside our control—a south-east Asian chip manufacturer can have a bottleneck that results in our being unable to produce cars in the United Kingdom. Structurally, the labour market has changed: as a consequence of the pandemic, there is now greater demand for goods relative to services. It will take time to mop that up.
The Bank of England MPC has expressed increasing concerns, in different ways, about inflation and has been constantly deferring the moment at which it believes inflation will peak. There is a debate as to when deferred “transitory” becomes “persistent”, but the huge danger is that we will go into a wage price spiral. One way in which that might happen is if we talk up wages by inducing companies to put them up without a coincident increase in productivity. That will simply feed the inflationary tiger. We have to be very careful on that point.
The super deduction is a very important move that the Chancellor has already made, and the extension of the annual investment allowance to 2023 is very welcome, but I think we may need to look even deeper at how, beyond the end of the super deduction, we can continue to see business investment rise.
On research and development, it seems to me that in the plethora of announcements, figures, dates, schemes and adjustments to relief that my right hon. Friend identified, we may have slipped on our target of hitting £22 billion by 2024-25—if I heard him correctly, it has slipped to 2026-27—and I am not quite sure where we are on our target of 2.4% of GDP by 2027. Those are vital targets for us to meet in the longer term.
Finally, there needs to be an overarching examination of how the recovery is balanced. Those hit hardest by the pandemic have been the poorest in our society, who are much more likely to have faced the impact of lockdown and loss of income, and young people. My Committee will look very closely at all the issues that I have raised, including that point.
Once again, I welcome the Budget. The Chancellor has been in a very difficult position and I think he has put forward a very positive set of proposals. The devil will be in the detail; my Committee will look forward to examining that detail, including with my right hon. Friend on Monday.