That this House, in accordance with the provisions of section 13(6)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, takes note of the Written Statement titled “Statement under Section 13(4) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018”, made on 21 January, and of the Written Statement titled “Statement under Section 13(11)(a) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018”, made on 24 January.
My Lords, the EU withdrawal Act set out a process for the Government to follow in the event that at this point we had not secured a deal to leave the European Union which had been approved by the House of Commons. In accordance with Section 13 of the Act, last week the Government made two Written Statements. The first was to set out next steps following the result of the vote on Tuesday 15 January. The second was to confirm how the parliamentary process would work going forward. So today’s debate—the latest but, I suspect, not the last—is in one sense simply a formal step that we have to take to satisfy the requirements of the legislation, but it also offers an opportunity to take stock.
The Motion before the House asks us to take note of both Statements in the same terms as the government Motion that the House of Commons will debate tomorrow. The Commons Motion is amendable, so there are likely to be votes on a variety of options at the conclusion of the debate. Noble Lords will be aware that a number of amendments have been tabled in the other place. They range from time-limiting the backstop, or replacing it with alternative arrangements, to seeking an extension to Article 50 or membership of a customs union. It will be for Mr Speaker to select the amendments to be voted on, and for MPs to decide what to support.
It is not my role to speculate on the outcome of the proceedings in the other place, and I will not do so. However, the Government and this House will need to reflect on any decisions that are made tomorrow. In this House, the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon, has tabled her own Motion. I will leave it to my noble friend Lord Callanan to respond to it; I have no doubt that he is eagerly looking forward to his third opportunity in recent weeks to respond to a debate of this sort.
This will not be the last time that the House of Commons is on the cusp of significant decisions which this House will want to have an opportunity to inform. I will do all I can, working with the other parties in this House, to ensure that that happens. We in this House have helped shape the process of leaving the EU and will continue to do so in the months ahead. In opening the debate on 6 December, I outlined the contribution that this House has made to the legislative programme needed to leave the European Union. It has considered legislation line by line. It has asked questions of government, proposed amendments and improved Bills through its work, but it has ultimately recognised the primacy of the House of Commons when the two Houses have disagreed. As Leader of this House, I have defended its right to do this and will continue to do so.
All of us—Government and Opposition, Front Benches and Back Benches—are working in a political environment charged with uncertainty, and in view of this noble Lords have reasonably raised questions about the legislative programme ahead. I heard the words of the noble Baroness, Lady Taylor of Bolton, when she asked us last week to give the greatest possible notice of our plans so that the House as a whole, and its Select Committees in particular, can plan their work. All of us recognise the unusual constraints the Government are currently facing in planning their legislative agenda due to the fact that significant decisions are being taken on the Floor of the House of Commons which fundamentally shape what happens next. We are a bicameral Parliament. This House does not operate in a vacuum, and very often the business in each House is dependent on the progress of the same business in the other.
My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baroness for her contribution on her Motion, although I am not sure that she said much about what we were expecting on the deal that we thought was in the Motion. She said that we were taking stock, but if we take stock of where we have got to so far it does not take very long because we have not got very far.
There are huge amounts of legislation still required prior to exit day, and at times the noble Baroness’s comments sounded like a lecture or a ticking-off. We should all be grateful to noble Lords across this House who give up their time and expertise to scrutinise primary and secondary legislation.
We are debating both Motions together for the convenience of the House. I will speak to my Motion and move it at the end of the debate. I will test the opinion of the House, although there are some things in what the noble Baroness said that implied that she might be able to accept my Motion. I hope that that will be the case. If the Government could indicate that, it would be very welcome. She seems a bit flustered, but I live in hope—I am one of life’s optimists. If that is not the case, I will test the opinion of your Lordships’ House.
Following the result of the referendum, few could have imagined that, more than 30 months later, there would still be so much division and so little agreement. I made the point last week, on our amendment about information required to complete consideration of the Trade Bill, about how often we were told how easy it was going to be. We were told, for example, that our existing trade agreements could be rolled over in an afternoon and new deals would be in place, apparently, one second after Brexit. Yet here we are, 60 days to exit day, with our country more divided and frustrated about the political process than ever before. Despite stark warnings, including from business, the NHS, and food producers and suppliers, the Prime Minister continues to refuse to take even one step towards ruling out the most damaging and catastrophic of outcomes: crashing out of the EU. Instead, Mrs May is seeking to use it as a bargaining chip with her MPs to try to force through a deal that has already been resoundingly rejected. As I remarked previously, the plan B that she has offered seems remarkably similar to plan A.
My Lords, today’s debate is the seventh opportunity for the House to discuss the Government’s deal since the first debate on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration on 5 December—some eight weeks ago. We have had two full debates, three Statements and one Urgent Question. It is now just over eight weeks to the anticipated exit date. Yet over the past eight weeks we have moved no closer to a Brexit outcome that can command a majority in the Commons.
The only substantive change that the Government are seeking to the deal that suffered such a catastrophic defeat two weeks ago is that the Prime Minister is looking to find a way of keeping a frictionless border in Northern Ireland that does not involve the current backstop proposals. To date, there is simply no credible suggestion as to how that might be achieved.
With every passing day, however, confusion continues to reign, and businesses and individuals are voting with their feet. Within the past few days the high-profile headquarters moves of Sony, Dyson and the European Medicines Agency have been announced, but behind the big headlines myriad smaller companies are opening warehouses and offices in continental Europe to ensure that their companies survive Brexit. They are being wooed ever more openly by political and business leaders across the EU, with, for example, high-profile political interventions from Belgium and France last week. Furthermore, when it comes to EU migrants, the Polish Prime Minister has issued a “please come home” appeal—and there is every sign that it is working. When I asked why a popular local restaurant closed over Christmas, I was told that it was still making money but that, “The Poles went home”.
The Motion before the House in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, is in two parts. The first part reiterates our opposition to a no-deal outcome. Many noble Lords have spoken in previous debates about the costs of such an outcome. To show its utter folly, I simply refer your Lordships to the article in yesterday’s Sunday Times, in which it is reported that officials are having to consider the introduction of a state of emergency, or even martial law, to deal with the possible impacts of no deal. This is madness indeed.
I am grateful to the noble Lord for giving way. I am fascinated by his allegation—but, as he says, it is a matter of scaremongering in the newspapers. He has spent some time asking people to rebut this allegation. Can he name a single Peer who has been approached by Mr Fox to engage in this filibustering? I have to say that I am aware of none.
It may come to the noble Lord as a bit of a shock, but Liam Fox is not in the habit of consulting me about secret meetings and who attends them—so, unsurprisingly, I cannot answer his question. Amazingly, Peers who might be thinking of filibustering in your Lordships’ House have not written a letter to the papers saying, “I have had this good idea of filibustering in the House of Lords. I am looking for volunteers to join me. If you are interested, here’s my email address ”.
I thank the noble Lord for giving way. I have not been approached by Liam Fox, either—but if it came to filibustering, I certainly learned a lot of lessons on the EU withdrawal Bill from the Liberal Democrats.
I am sure that the noble Lord has learned many lessons from the Liberal Democrats: principally about the cost of every aspect of our leaving the EU, which my colleagues, 30 of whom spoke during debates on the withdrawal Bill, enunciated so clearly.
As I was saying, I hope that we will pass this Motion tonight to signal to the Commons the clear view of your Lordships’ House that, were MPs to decide to pass the Cooper Bill or any other legislation relating to the Brexit timetable or process, your Lordships’ House would deal with it in a timely manner.
The Cooper Bill is a recognition of what everybody knows: namely, that there is no way that the UK will be in a position to leave the EU in a mere eight weeks’ time with the full panoply of post-Brexit legislation in place. The inability or unwillingness of the Government to say how many Brexit-related SIs have been passed into law is testament to this. So is the withdrawal, because of its flaws and errors, of the mammoth SI which the noble Lord, Lord Cunningham, recently drew to the attention of the House. So is the fact that, with the exception of the Trade Bill, the various other major Bills which we will need to pass—on agriculture, fisheries and immigration—have not yet had even their Second Readings in your Lordships’ House.
In a BBC interview on Friday, the Leader of the Commons implicitly recognised this when she said, in respect of the need to get all the legislation through, that,
“if we needed a couple of extra weeks or something then that would be feasible”.
So an extension is on its way, one way or another. The only thing that is unclear is the basis on which such an extension will be sought. I suspect that if the Prime Minister simply asked for more time to try to come up with something which would unify the Conservative Party, she would be met with a firm rebuff by the EU. Even in the unlikely event that she was able to discover an alternative to the Irish backstop that satisfied the EU and her own party, the Government would need more time simply to get the necessary legislation through.
My Lords, the noble Lord advanced a number of hypotheses that may or may not happen. As general principles, though, would it not be astonishing if the Government could not accept these two parts of the Opposition’s Motion? We know that it is the Government’s policy to try to avoid no deal: surely they must feel an obligation to give adequate time to this House to pass any consequent legislation.
My Lords, as the Brexit process nears its high noon, I suggest to your Lordships that it might be a useful time for us as a House, as the noble Baroness has suggested, to think a little not just about the withdrawal process but about safeguarding the health of our parliamentary democracy. With all this wild talk about citizens’ assemblies, the national fury and frustration at the deadlock in Parliament, and Parliament being widely despised and, indeed, ridiculed, I am afraid that the parliamentary institution itself is clearly now in danger.
Parliament is being depicted outside this place as a ship of fools, drifting fast towards a no-deal cataract, with all the Members of Parliament on board desperately calling for the Government to somehow shift, abolish, postpone or rule out the cataract and the chaos ahead—with a shower of amendments, as we have heard, and with a proposed Bill which, incidentally, I understand cannot be passed anyway, regardless of filibustering, without a money Bill from the Government; so it cannot be passed at all, if the Government oppose it. It might be worth the noble Lord, Lord Newby, checking on that, because he is looking puzzled. The suggestion that you can somehow wish the cataract away is a brilliant idea—if you shut your eyes tight and wish hard, the nasty waterfall or cliff-edge will disappear and something else will turn up. Of course, in real life the only course is to turn the ship round and head fast upstream to the safety of the withdrawal deal that we have on the table, with the backstop tweaked, clarified or perforated if possible—but, basically, that is the one anchorage available. Short of that, the rocks of the cataract are unavoidable, however many amendments MPs pass and however many tables it is taken off.
A number of people, especially our good friends the Lib Dems, keep saying, “Well, what about a second referendum?” The problem—and I really ask them to think about this, because I do not think they have—is that plebiscites do not solve anything. First, they certainly weaken parliamentary government and smash our national unity, as we saw with the previous referendum. The idea that a second referendum—in fact, it will be the third—will settle the issue is pure fantasy. Secondly, mass voting events are now more open to vicious manipulation than ever before. Of course, dictators twisted and corrupted mass opinion in the 20th century, but now that giant algorithms and incredible power can target millions of people individually and bombard them with a cascade of endless slogans, true or untrue, fake or real, the facts are 10 times worse. Indeed, not an hour ago, we heard a Question emphasising that point.
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Lord Brown of Eaton-under-Heywood (CB)
My Lords, it is imperative in my view, doubtless in common with the great majority of your Lordships, that we reach a deal. I believe that the Government themselves also feel this.
I do not believe that there is any greater chance of the Prime Minister allowing a no-deal Brexit, than there would be—obviously, in very different circumstances —of her authorising a nuclear strike. I am not suggesting that each would cause comparable devastation: plainly, that is not so. Indeed, it is a ridiculous thought. The critical point, however, is that it is vital to keep the risk of each—the possibility of each, however small—in play.
Obviously, no one, however passionately opposed to our maintaining a nuclear deterrent capability, could, while we continue to have it, seek to persuade Parliament to legislate against ever deploying it. Its value as a deterrent lies in the risk, however faint, that in retaliation we just might. So too, I suggest, with the possibility that we just might crash out of the EU. While that possibility exists, it must surely operate as an incentive for us to reach a deal. It is an incentive, let it be emphasised, on all—both on our own Members of Parliament and on the EU negotiators.
It is nothing short of absurd to argue that Parliament should now legislate to take a no-deal Brexit off the table. That would either force us to accept a less favourable deal than we might otherwise get or, alternatively, force us to stay in the EU.
I confess that at heart I remain a remainer, but I have finally come to accept that there should not, and now must not, be a further referendum, certainly not one that still caters to the possibility of remaining in the EU. The only conceivable further vote could be on a choice between accepting the deal on offer and exiting with no deal. But I would not legislate to take the possibility of remaining off the table either.
What of the proposed legislation to force the Prime Minister, if by 26 February she has still not achieved a parliamentary vote for a deal, to request of the EU an extension of the Article 50 process? This, I suggest, would again have the inevitable consequence of lessening the urgency of the need to agree a deal. Everyone acknowledges that EU deals are habitually reached at the 12th hour. Postpone the 12th hour, delay the date by which agreement is required and on would go this ever more depressing and debilitating process.
I do not know whether any of your Lordships have had the time or inclination over recent weeks to watch “Question Time”, now chaired by the estimable Fiona Bruce. I have watched them, and to my mind they have made one thing clear beyond all others: the general public—not every individual, of course, but the great majority—ache for a final end to this saga and are ever more critical of the politicians at Westminster for failing to bring this question to a conclusion.
My Lords, I am sorry to interrupt the noble and learned Lord but perhaps I may just correct him. If he checks my comments of today in Hansard, I think he will see that I have made it clear that this House rejected no deal. My other comment was that we soundly rejected how the other place expressed its views on the Prime Minister’s deal. I made no reference in my speech today to our comments on the Prime Minister’s deal.
Lord Brown of Eaton-under-Heywood
I am grateful for that; clearly, one would always accept a clarification. I confess that I understood that what came from the Front Bench was to regard the votes of all who supported the Motion as votes against accepting the deal on offer. If I am wrong, of course I withdraw that point.
In any event, I shall not be supporting the opposition Motion this time. Despite the earlier intervention by the noble Lord, Lord Butler, I suggest that it is expressed in such abstract terms—it uses the hallowed word “appropriate”—begs so many questions and seems so elliptical in what it is inviting that it is mischievous rather than self-evidently helpful. I fear that it, too, could be misrepresented, at least to this extent. It could be misrepresented as support for legislating against a no-deal Brexit or compelling the Government to request an extension of the process, both of which—for the reasons I have already sought to give—I would regard as weakening the Government’s negotiating position and thus prejudicing the prospect of an acceptable early resolution of this most ghastly saga.
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The uncertainty we face today relates to future decisions of the House of Commons over a deal, to future negotiations which may follow such decisions, and to the timing of subsequent legislation which would be needed to give effect to a deal. Finding satisfactory outcomes could scarcely be more critical. But we should not be distracted from the task at hand. The uncertainty surrounding elements of the process does not mean that this House has been sitting idly by while others attempt to find answers to these questions. So far this Session, we have played a key role in passing five Acts which help ensure that the UK will have a functioning statute book whatever the outcome of the negotiations. In the remainder of this week alone we will be considering exit-related bills such as the Financial Services (Implementation of Legislation) Bill and the Trade Bill. Next week we begin our consideration of the Healthcare (International Arrangements) Bill. We are also pressing ahead with key domestic legislation: over the next fortnight we are considering the Offensive Weapons Bill and the Finance (No. 3) Bill.
A number of noble Lords have expressed concern over our ability to scrutinise EU exit-related secondary legislation effectively. The Government have worked hard to ensure that this legislation is brought forward in a timely way, and we have engaged proactively with committees and opposition parties in both Houses on the way it should be scrutinised, including through the introduction of new sifting mechanisms.
Our Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee, chaired by my noble friend Lord Trefgarne, and its two sub-committees, chaired by my noble friend and the noble Lord, Lord Cunningham of Felling, are doing an excellent job—as of course are the Members of this House who sit on the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments. I know that we are all extremely grateful to them for their hard work. This legislation is essential to provide legal continuity in a no-deal scenario. But of course much of it will also be needed if we leave the EU with a deal.
Since Christmas we have spent well over 20 hours debating this legislation in Grand Committee and on the Floor of the House, although some contributions were perhaps not quite as focused on the policy issues at hand as they could have been. In organising the forward programme of work, my noble friend the Government Chief Whip and I will continue to work in a constructive way with our counterparts in the usual channels and to give as much notice of our timetable as is practical. We are all aware of the challenges ahead. By working together, we have already shown flexibility in timetabling. For instance, during the course of the withdrawal Bill, we sat earlier to ensure that the House had more time to scrutinise the legislation. Of course, as is normal at this point of the year, from the end of this month sitting Thursdays will revert to government business.
The decisions that Parliament takes in the next few weeks will have profound consequences for the future of this country. Recognising this, since I last addressed this House the Prime Minister and other Cabinet Ministers have continued to meet parliamentarians and others across the political spectrum—including Members across the political parties in both Houses and representatives of business groups and trade unions—in order to find the broadest possible consensus on a way forward. I am sure that tomorrow the Prime Minister will provide an update on these discussions when she addresses the other place.
The Government recognise the responsibility they have to deliver the result of the referendum and to maintain the trust of the public in the political system which serves them. Parliament must recognise that it too has a responsibility in this regard. We all have to act in the interests of the people of the United Kingdom. Although I strongly disagree with them, some noble Lords will no doubt argue today that those interests would be best served by sending the question back to the people or even by Parliament coming to the opposite conclusion of the referendum result and deciding to remain in the European Union.
This Front Bench recognises the right of noble Lords to strongly challenge the Government, but we can work effectively only if the House acts responsibly and constructively. I know that my noble friend the Government Chief Whip is pleased that the usual channels in this House work so well together. As my right honourable friend the Prime Minister said last week, we intend for Parliament to have a still greater role in the next phase of our negotiations should a withdrawal agreement and future framework be agreed. This will include confidential committee sessions that can ensure that Parliament has the most up-to-date information, while not undermining the negotiations.
As I said in response to questions last week, this commitment applies to Select Committees of this House as well as to those of the House of Commons. That was reiterated by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union when he gave evidence to the European Union Committee last week.
I think it is fair to say that we are in uncharted waters. However, my right honourable friend the Prime Minister remains focused on finding solutions to deliver Brexit that are negotiable and that command support across the political spectrum. Only by doing that can we provide the country with the certainty that it urgently needs. I beg to move.
Despite offers of talks and political engagement, there has been no real attempt to seek wider support or build a consensus. Since the referendum, your Lordships’ House has had many contributions on the detail of how the Government should reflect the outcome of the referendum, which the noble Baroness referred to. We have had debates on legislation, Motions such as this one—I welcome the Minister back to the Dispatch Box to respond—many questions on different aspects, debates on the detailed reports of our excellent EU sub-committees, and regular Statements from the Prime Minister have been repeated, most Mondays, in your Lordships’ House. At every point, this House has sought to be useful. Many of our suggestions and amendments, including on issues such as Northern Ireland and our future relationship with the EU agencies, have ultimately been accepted or slightly amended by MPs.
I often reflect on the amendment to the withdrawal Bill tabled by my noble friends Lord Monks and Lord Lea, who sought to persuade the Government that the Prime Minister should engage with Parliament and seek a mandate for her negotiations. That way, she would have had a better idea of what Parliament would accept, which would have strengthened her hand. Instead, she chose to go it alone, with a predictable rejection, although the scale of that rejection was astounding.
Time is now running out. With the clock ticking down, and MPs voting tomorrow to seek a way forward, how can we in your Lordships’ House be most helpful? The legislation relating to a meaningful vote was initiated in this House—that is clear. It is the responsibility of the elected House to hold that meaningful vote on whether to accept the outcome of the Prime Minister’s negotiations, and it remains for the elected Members of Parliament to decide. As we draw closer to exit day, it is clear that Mrs May has failed to find acceptance for the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration that she negotiated, losing the vote in the other place with the largest parliamentary defeat in living memory. However, despite the urging of colleagues from across the political spectrum, the Prime Minister continues to raise the spectre of leaving without any deal or agreements. It is true that it is not entirely within her gift to guarantee a deal. However, Mrs May could—and should—send a clear signal to the EU 27 that all possible steps should be taken to rule out a chaotic and reckless no-deal exit. There will be different views on who must take responsibility for getting to this stage with so little clarity and agreement, and so much division across our country. But that is for another time. At this stage, a way forward has to be found.
The Motion in my name is in two parts. First, it is a factual recognition of where we are. Your Lordships’ House was clear about our position on a crash-out exit when we voted, by a majority of 169, to reject that as an option, and MPs have resoundingly rejected Mrs May’s proposals. It is probably worth noting that the House of Commons also agreed an amendment to the Finance Bill to limit the Government’s powers in the event of no deal. Secondly, my Motion proposes how we should respond to the next steps taken by the House of Commons. In some ways, that should just be taken as read, but it is worth restating. It may be that, following their debates and votes tomorrow in the other place, MPs will be no clearer as to how to proceed. But it is also possible—I said that I am an optimist—that MPs may agree on a way forward: either a conclusion or a process to reach a conclusion. Time is running out. If, in the few days that remain, the elected MPs find a course of action that has majority agreement through the Motions and amendments for debate tomorrow, we must respond positively.
Once we accept the premise that crashing out is too damaging for the UK to seriously accept, few options remain. It is for our elected colleagues to decide at this stage which option to pursue from the amendments tabled. These include: support for the Prime Minister’s Motion; some kind of indicative vote on the options that MPs may agree to; to seek more time, if no agreement can be reached at this stage, through a limited extension of Article 50; or—if there is simply no majority for any option—to return to the electorate with a further public vote.
The Labour amendment restates our policy of rejecting a no-deal outcome, seeking a permanent customs union and negotiating a strong relationship with the single market that recognises the importance of EU-derived social protections. It also acknowledges that Parliament may have to seek further approval from the public. Other proposals are on the table. Some make requests of the EU 27, particularly in relation to the backstop, while others ask the Government to pause for further reflection, instead of deliberately running down the clock and crashing out.
Tomorrow evening we may know what our elected colleagues want the Prime Minister to do next. That is, quite rightly, a decision for them and them alone. My Motion reiterates the stated position of your Lordships’ House on rejecting a no-deal Brexit, and, if the House of Commons agrees a course of action that requires new legislation, makes it clear that both the Government and this House should facilitate its passage. It is nothing more than that, but they expect nothing less of us.
I hope, therefore, that the Leader of the House and the Minister will respond positively to my proposals today. If not, I will move my Motion to test the opinion of the House.
The other part of the Motion reflects the fact that, over the past eight weeks, despite our debates in the Lords—and indeed our vote a fortnight ago—we have counted for little. But this may be about to change. The proposals which will be debated in the Commons tomorrow include one led by Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles which would have the effect of deferring the withdrawal date by several months, and would enshrine this in a Bill. As with every other Bill, it would come to your Lordships’ House. It is therefore particularly important today for your Lordships to assert that, if that is the case, we will deal with it in a timely manner and not seek to thwart it.
It should not be necessary for us to do this. Your Lordships’ House has always acted quickly in response to urgent legislation that has gone through the Commons. For example, some of us remember the passage of the Bill to rescue Northern Rock. But in this case there is clear evidence that some Ministers are actively seeking to encourage Members of your Lordships’ House to filibuster on the Cooper Bill if it passes the Commons. According to last Friday’s Daily Mail—so it must be true—Liam Fox has had meetings with pro-Brexit Peers to discuss such filibustering: a tactic that other government sources have also predicted, hence the many articles to this effect over the weekend.
I cannot believe that the Leader, the Chief Whip or the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, would countenance such behaviour, but it would be extremely reassuring if the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, could confirm in his winding-up speech that they will positively discourage it.
The other justification for more time would be to allow the people to express their view, with an option to remain in the EU. Your Lordships know that that is what we on these Benches support. I can only reiterate that there is now widespread support for a people’s vote across the country and a growing majority who say that, in such a vote, they would vote to stay in the EU. In arguing against such a vote and in answer to a Question last Thursday from the noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, said that in the 2016 referendum a majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU. That is of course not the case: 37% of the electorate voted to leave. I hope that in his winding-up speech the noble Lord will take the opportunity to correct that error.
There is no doubt that the country is now heartily fed up with endless Brexit arguments. There is a growing, and accurate, sense that while we wrangle over this issue, virtually every other area of public policy is being unaddressed. This week Parliament has the chance to narrow down the options and make some progress. Our role in your Lordships’ House is secondary, but we still have an obligation to ourselves and the country to play it to the full. I therefore urge noble Lords to support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith.
Now there is an even bigger danger of distortion which applies not only to plebiscites but to all big public votes and elections, and that is foreign meddling. Disinformation has become a worldwide currency, and a cheap one too, allowing not just weaker nations but sinister hacking groups of no known allegiance to undermine and confuse facts and truth so that discord, descending into street violence, can be sown and all forms of democracy discredited with terrifying ease. In effect, the true voice of the people has become harder and harder to discern and act on. That is the reality we now face.
As for the next stage of Brexit, anyone who thinks that it will all be put to bed via a referendum or any other means in the next two years is living in a fool’s paradise. Like many others, I have struggled with this underlying conflict in one form or another for most of my political life. In or out of the European Union, and with all the tensions between existing members, which are growing all the time, I see a future Europe of constant bargaining: an endless, continuous set of disputes between the legitimate yearnings for national unity, identity, sovereignty and independence and the pull of ever-deeper interdependence and collaboration, as the noble Lord, Lord Wallace of Saltaire, reminded us the other day. These forces are working in both directions, they are driven by unstoppable technology and they are constantly clashing as new issues come along. My noble friend Lord Patten—I do not know whether he is in his place today—was worrying about having to debate customs unions for ever. Yes, he is right. They will indeed be debated in 50 different varieties long after he and I have gone.
As for Ireland, the puzzle for me is this: it has been obvious from the start that, contrary to what has been asserted, modern means are available and can work to keep the border invisible. At first, the EU high priests said that all these systems were “magical” and dismissed them, but now we have Mr Juncker admitting that they exist and could work. The reality is that long before we get anywhere near a backstop, well inside any transition phase, a workable open border can be up and running—probably rather similar to either the sort of minimalist borders that exist already in Northern Ireland or the sort of borders that exist elsewhere across Europe between EU member states, all of which are completely consistent with the subtle ambiguity at the heart of the Good Friday agreement.
There is the additional reality that a hard, sealed border is in practice impossible. In Ireland, under Mr Willie Whitelaw almost half a century ago, I and my colleagues tried to close the border with military and customs posts to stop the Provisionals and their weapons coming up from Dundalk. It made not the slightest difference. All that happened was that a number of young soldiers and brave customs officials got murdered. You would need a wall across Ireland, like in Mexico or Israel, to make a hard border, which no one wants anyway.
We are on a long journey, step by step. As my noble friend the Duke of Wellington said in a speech in the Chamber the other day, many things that cannot be fixed now will become soluble later. As the wise noble Lord, Lord Bew, says, “Things evolve”. Relationships evolve. Trade patterns evolve. The EU evolves; it is doing so very rapidly before our eyes. People who keep calling for certainty and guarantees will have to go on calling, because there is no certainty in life or business and certainly not in our connections with our neighbours. Francis Bacon said, “If a person will begin with certainties, they shall end in doubts”.
I am not closely acquainted with the Prime Minister, and I have hardly ever met her, but I know political courage when I see it. She is criticised for Brexit delay, but actually the delay is proving invaluable. I would make it a confidence vote. A touch more delay, and a good strong will, will work wonders. Every day that passes is clearly bringing a stronger realisation, to those with closed minds, that short of massive dislocation and self-harm, there is only one practical way of delivering Brexit—hopefully with a few adjustments wrung out of the EU, but we will have to see what can be obtained. We know the realities. The Prime Minister’s courage, denounced by all the jejune know-all commentators and political foes as stubbornness, is what will pull us through to the next stage in the evolution of our ties both with our regional European neighbours and with the utterly transformed world of Asia, Africa, the Commonwealth network and Latin America—where most of the growth is going to be. We need to associate more closely than ever before with these parties to ensure our future prosperity and security. It used to be a case of the east catching up with the west; now, it is becoming the other way around.
The longer we delay the Brexit journey with pretence alternatives, unicorn solutions and child-like yearnings for riskless certainty and a rose-tinted past, the slower will be our adjustment to the entirely new world conditions that have already come about, and that we now face. We should get on with it, and that, I believe, is now the wish of this nation.
I recognise, as plainly does the Prime Minister and, for that matter, the EU, that the closer to the 12th hour that any deal is agreed, the more obvious will be the need for what would, we hope, be only a short extension of the Article 50 process for the necessary legislative steps to be completed to give effect to it. But that request for an extension can and, I suggest, properly should be left to be made when the deal is struck, not in anticipation of failure and according to a given timetable.
In the last debate I voted in favour of the Motion tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith. I regret having done so for this reason: in my speech I made it explicit beyond question that I supported the Prime Minister’s deal and was urging Members at the other end to accept it, notwithstanding that the opposition Motion still included some criticisms, although markedly fewer than in the previous, pre-Christmas debate, of the deal’s likely adverse consequences. The noble Lord, Lord Butler, likewise voted for the Motion while also supporting the Prime Minister’s deal. We were therefore dismayed to hear the Opposition Bench thereafter, and indeed again today, lumping together all those who had voted for the Motion as having voted to reject the deal and calculating the majority accordingly.